Tokyo Verdy VS Cerezo Osaka

Verdy host Cerezo Osaka Sanfrecce in this J1 League round 12 battle at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo Friday evening Beijing time.This is the highest tier of Japanese football. By global standards this league is of pretty mediocre level but Asian standards it is very good! Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of pretty average quality by the J1 League standards here.. Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another very interesting betting opportunity here. We have won five of the last seven picks betting on the J1 League. Both teams have had a slightly disappointing start to the season.. Indeed, Verdy are currently in 16th place in this league where a total of 20 teams play. They have grabbed only 11 points. Verdy have netted the ball only seven times in this league. This is – together with Yokohama FC – the smallest number in this league. Their attacks have often been too slow, predictable and have lacked passing accuracy in key areas – near the opponent's goal. Yes, their number of expected goals (xG) is somewhat bigger but I have still not been impressed at all by their offense. They have allowed 12 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) – after 11 games - per match is 1.45. They have won only two games in this league – and just one at home. They have scored only four goals in the five home games.

Most of the biggest bookies with the largest stake limits see this game as very balanced – offering odds of around 2.70 on both teams to win. However, based on my strongly data-based expert analysis - Osaka deserve to be solid favourites here. We will place a bet on them with the +0.5 handicap option, Osaka have, in all honesty, not been great so far. Indeed, they have 13 points to their account but their number of expected points (xPTS( is bigger. Their goal difference is much better than that of the hosts'. Indeed they have both scored and allowed 16 goals. I have been impressed with the way they attack. Their midfielders are often active in attacking and their offensive structure is good. Osaka's number of xG per game is 1.83 – the highest in this league. They should, however, improve their defence – the defenders should focus better – and avoid (too) risky passes near their own goals. They have the potential for improvement! I expect Osaka to be active and attacking a lot here as this is the best way for them to play in. Verdy do not have very loud fans – and will most probably not “scare” the Osaka players.. Ajinomoto Stadium has a maximum capacity of close to 50 000 but there were only some 17 000 spectators at the stadium.

Let's remember that Verdy have not won any of their last seven games in the 90 minutes of play. They did, however, win two of these seven matches after penalties. Both were YBC Levain Cup matches. In their most recent game they took a point from Kawasaki Frontale on the road. No goals were scored in this rather boring game. Verdy were very lame offensive, recording only one shot on goal and no big scoring chances. The hosts had six shots on goal. Verdy generated a very low 0.19 in xG but defended pretty well. Kawasaki Frontale were somewhat disappointing offensively though.. Before this Verdy beat Blaublitz, a team from J2 League, 2-1 after penalties. They were priced around 2.00 to win in the 90 minutes. They did deserve to qualify but did not impress me as a whole – against a pretty lowly opponent. In round 10 Verdy lost to Vissel Kobe 0-2 at home. The visitors generated 0.85 more in xG than Verdy. Osaka have been in much better form! Indeed, they have lost only one of their last seven games – and none of their last three matches, In their last game they welcome FC Tokyo. It was a 1-1 draw but Osaka would have deserve all three points. Indeed, they recorded eight more total shots and allowed FC Tokyo only one shot on target – recording six themselves. They also had many more big scoring chances (6-1) and four more corner kicks, Before this Osaka needed penalties to eliminate Imabari 4-3 after penalties away from home. It was an YMB Levain Cup clash. Osaka recorded a whopping 24 total shots and also had many more shots on target than Imabari. Before this Osaka defeated Kashima Antlers 1-0 at home. They generated many more total shots (16-5) and big scoring chances – 7-1! The xG numbers were very imbalanced -  2.34-0.18 to be precise. In this game Osaka proved that they are capable of defending in a solid way. Let's not forget that Kashima Antlers are currently as high as in 3rd place in the standings..

GOOD LUCK!

东京Verdy VS大阪Cerezo

北京时间周五晚上，在东京味之本体育场举行的J1联赛第12轮比赛中，Verdy主场迎战大阪圣三队。这是日本足球的最高级别。以全球标准来看，这个联赛的水平相当平庸，但以亚洲标准来看，它非常好！足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以J1联赛标准衡量的质量相当一般的比赛。最重要的是，我和我的粉丝在这里又有了一个非常有趣的投注机会。我们在过去7次赌J1联赛的比赛中赢了5次。两队本赛季的开局都有点令人失望。事实上，Verdy目前在这个共有20支球队参加的联赛中排名第16位。他们只拿到了11分。在这个联赛中，威尔迪队只进过7次球。这支球队和横滨队一起是联赛中人数最少的球队。他们的进攻往往太慢，难以预测，而且在关键区域——对手的球门附近——缺乏传球的准确性。是的，他们的预期进球数（xG）有点大，但我仍然没有对他们的进攻留下深刻印象。他们丢了12个球，但是在11场比赛之后，他们每场比赛的预期失球数（xGA）是1.45。他们在这个联赛中只赢了两场比赛，而且只有一场是在主场。他们在五场主场比赛中只进了四个球。

大多数拥有最大赌注限制的大型博彩公司都认为这场比赛非常平衡——两队获胜的赔率都在2.70左右。然而，根据我基于数据的专家分析，大阪应该是这里最受欢迎的城市。我们将在他们身上下注+0.5的障碍选项，大阪，说实话，到目前为止还不是很好。事实上，他们的账户上有13分，但他们的预期点数（xPTS）更大。他们的净胜球比东道主好得多。事实上，他们都进了16球，也丢了16球。他们进攻的方式给我留下了深刻的印象。他们的中场经常在进攻中很活跃，他们的进攻结构很好。大阪大坂的场均xG数为1.83个，在联赛中排名第一。然而，他们应该改进他们的防守——防守者应该更好地集中注意力——避免（过于）危险的传球靠近自己的球门。他们有改进的潜力！我希望大阪能在这里积极进攻，因为这是他们最好的打法。Verdy没有非常大声的球迷，而且很可能不会“吓到”大阪的球员。味之素体育场的最大容量接近5万人，但体育场只有约1.7万名观众。

让我们记住，在过去的七场比赛中，Verdy在90分钟的比赛中没有赢过一场。然而，他们在这七场比赛中赢得了两场点球大战。两场比赛都是YBC列文杯比赛。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场从川崎前锋那里拿走了一分。在这场相当无聊的比赛中没有进球。威尔迪队的进攻很差劲，只有一次射门，没有重大进球机会。东道主有6次射门射正。Verdy的xG命中率很低，只有0.19，但防守很好。川崎前锋在进攻端有点令人失望。在此之前，Verdy在点球大战中以2-1击败了来自J2联赛的Blaublitz。他们在90分钟内赢得比赛的价格约为2英镑。他们确实有资格晋级，但整体上并没有给我留下深刻的印象——面对的是一个相当不起眼的对手。在第10轮比赛中，Verdy主场0-2不敌Vissel Kobe。访问者在xG的产出比Verdy多0.85。大阪的状态要好得多！事实上，他们在最近七场比赛中只输了一场，而在最近三场比赛中一场都没有输。虽然是1比1战平，但大阪本应得到全部三分。事实上，他们总共射门8次，只让东京FC射正1次，而他们自己射门6次。他们还有更多的进球机会（6比1）和4次角球。在此之前，大阪大阪队在客场点球后以4比3淘汰了今成。这是一场YMB列文杯的比赛。大阪直美总共有24次射门，射正的次数也比今张多得多。在此之前，大阪队在主场1-0击败鹿岛鹿角队。他们创造了更多的射门机会（16-5）和大得分机会——7-1！xG值非常不平衡，准确地说是2.34-0.18。在这场比赛中，大阪证明了他们有能力以坚实的方式防守。让我们不要忘记鹿岛鹿角目前在排名中高达第三位。

好运！