Levante vs Valencia

Levante and Valencia battle for three points and glory in this derby at Estadi Ciutat de València early Tuesday morning Beijing time. An intense, tight and probably a good match is expected but let's take a closer look at it betting-wise..

Taking a look at the standings my selection "Levante not to lose" might seem weird but once again we must realize that even after 17 rounds the standings do not illustrate the true class of the teams - especially the true level Levante have played so far. Yes, very surprisingly, they are the rock bottom team La Liga at the moment - something I would guess no one predicted before the season started. Taking a look at expected points statistic we can see something very unusual, especially for a top European football league: In terms of expected points Levante would have earned some 14-15 points more than they have scored so far! This would mean they would be placed between 10th and 12th place.. In more detail, their expected goals number is 4.50 goals bigger than the actual number of goals scored. The expected numbers of goals allowed, on the other hand, is 8.50 lower than the number the opponents have scored against them so far this season. Levante have indeed improved their level under the new interim manager, Italian Alessio Lisci, 36. Things do look a lot better for the hosts now than say about a month ago. Lisci took over the team on the 30th of November. and might be able to save them from relegation. A great, recent example of a match where Levante played well but did not get a reward was on the 11th of December away from home against a pretty good team Espanyol, who are currently in the 10th place. The final score was 4-3 but Levante created a very high number - 3.42 in expected goals, whereas the hosts' number was 2.10 goals. At least a draw and one point would have been justified!

Valencia, on the other hand, have played pretty well this season, especially result-wise but have been a little lucky as a whole this season.. They have scored about one point more than they should have in terms of expected points and have scored some four goals more than they should have in terms of expected goals. Today they will be missing some important players which hurts them a lot. Daniel Wass and Maxi Gomez will both sit this fixture. In addition, Gabriel Paulista is unavailable because of an injury. Omar Alderete and Thierry Correia will take fitness tests, so their situation is still uncertain at the time of writing this.

To sum up, Levante have a very good chance of not losing this derby and Levante +1 goals with the 1x2 handicap is my pick for my growing fan-base.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

莱万特和瓦伦西亚在这场比赛中争夺三分和荣誉València北京时间周二凌晨。一场激烈的，紧张的，可能是一场很好的比赛是被期待的，但让我们更仔细地看看它的打赌明智。

看看排名，我选择的“莱万特不要输”可能看起来很奇怪，但我们必须再次意识到，即使在17轮之后，排名也不能说明球队的真正级别——特别是莱万特目前为止所经历的真正级别。是的，非常令人惊讶的是，他们是西甲目前的垫底球队——我猜在赛季开始之前没有人预料到这一点。看看预期积分统计数据，我们会发现一些非常不寻常的事情，特别是对于一个顶级的欧洲足球联赛:在预期积分方面，莱万特将比目前为止的得分多出14-15分!这意味着他们将排在第10到12位之间。更具体地说，他们的预期进球数比实际进球数多4.5个。与此相反，预计进球数比本赛季迄今为止对手的进球数少了8.50个。在36岁的意大利人阿莱西奥·利西的领导下，莱万特确实提高了他们的水平。对东道主来说，现在的情况比一个月前好多了。lissi于11月30日接管了这个团队。也许能让他们免于降级。最近莱万特打得很好但没有得到奖励的一个很好的例子是12月11日客场对阵西班牙人的比赛，他们目前排名第十。最终比分为4-3，但莱万特创造了一个很高的数字——预期进球3.42个，而东道主的预期进球为2.10个。至少一场平局，一分是合理的!

另一方面，瓦伦西亚本赛季踢得很好，特别是在结果方面，但作为一个整体来说，有点幸运。他们比预期得分多了一分，比预期进球多了四分。今天他们将失去一些重要的球员，这让他们很受伤。丹尼尔·沃斯和马克西·戈麦斯都将参加这场比赛。此外，加布里埃尔·保利斯塔也因伤缺阵。奥马尔·阿尔德雷特和蒂埃里·科雷亚将参加体能测试，所以在写这篇文章的时候，他们的情况仍然不确定。

综上所述，莱万特很有可能不会输掉这场德比战，而在我不断增长的球迷基础上，莱万特让球胜是我的选择。