Sao Paulo VS Alianza Lima

Sao Paulo host Alianza Lima in this Copa Libertadores group stage round 2 battle at Estadio Do MorumBIS in Sao Paulo early Friday morning Beijing time. This is the highest of international South American club competitions. Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors can expect a match of somewhat average level by this competition's standards here.. Most importantly we have another very promising betting chance! Indeed, my fans and I have won 7/8 last picks betting on Copa Libertadores games. The hosts are a Brazilian team, the visitors come from Peru. Yes, the Brazilian Serie A is, as a whole, of a better level than the Peruvian Liga 1. Even so, I do not agree with the very low odds of around 1.40 offered by the bookies!  Indeed, we will place a +1.5 handicap bet on the visitors - with a strong chance of winning - once again. Sao Paulo finished only in 6th place in the Serie A that finished in December 2024. They took 59 points and had quite a lot of luck on their side in many games.. The 59 points was 20 points less than the champions, Botafogo RJ, managed to take. I want to emphasize that Sao Paulo are not among the biggest/ best teams in Brazil! Alianza Lima, on the other hand, are a strong team by Peruvian standards. They are currently in 4th place in the Liga 1 Apertura – after six or seven matches played by each team. They have grabbed 13 points and can definitely improve in all areas of the game. I expect them to be pretty defensive at Estadio Do MorumBIS, mainly relying on fast counter attacks and set pieces to score.. This is something they are, in fact, pretty good at.. I believe they would be pretty happy with a point.. The goal expectancy here is smaller than the bookies estimate.

Sao Paulo have won only one of their last four games and three of their last 11 matches. Furthermore, they have won only one of their last 13 games by a margin of more than one goal. In their last match they took a point from Atletico-MG through a goalless draw on the road. However, they did not deserve even a point. Indeed, they generated only 0.36 in expected goals (xG) – 1.12 less than the hosts!  Atletico-MG had a 60% ball possession and recorded many more shots on goal and corner kicks (12-4). The hosts also had a staggering 19 more total shots. Before this they took an undeserved 1-0 away win over Talleres Cordoba in the Copa Libertadores. They generated only 0.21 in xG and had 12 total shots less than the hosts. The Argentinian hosts generated 0.94 in xG. Alianza Lima have won eight of their last 15 games but have, in all honesty, not been quite at their best recently. However, they have also had some bad luck in some of their games recently. In their most recent match they faced U. De Deportes at home – a dangerous opponent – and it was a 1-1 draw. However, their player, P. Lavandeira Hernandez was sent off already in the 16th minute! Even so, Alianza Lima defended brilliantly – in the end both teams had just one shot on target. The xG numbers were low – 0.43-0.45 to be precise. Before this they lost to a team from Paraguay, 0-1 at home in the Copa de Libertadores. Lima, however, had a close to 60% ball possession and recorded five more total shots. The visitors did generate marginally more in xG though – 0.86-0.73 to be precise. In round 6 of the Liga 1 Alianza Lima lost to AD Tarma, a strong opponent, 0-3 away from home as clear favourites on the betting market. Yes, Tarma did deserve the three points but the final score is still misleading.. Indeed, Tarma recorded only two more total shots and 0.87 more in xG.. I need to mention that Tarma performed well – Lima, on the other hand, played below their normal level.

GOOD LUCK!

圣保罗VS利马联盟

北京时间周五凌晨，解放者杯小组赛第二轮，圣保罗主场迎战利马联盟队。这是南美洲最高级别的国际俱乐部比赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的投注者可以期待一场比赛，以比赛的标准来看，这是一场中等水平的比赛。最重要的是，我们有另一个非常有希望的赌博机会！事实上，我和我的球迷在最后一次下注解放者杯的比赛中赢了7/8。东道主是巴西队，客队来自秘鲁。是的，巴西甲级联赛，作为一个整体，比秘鲁甲级联赛水平更高。即便如此，我也不同意博彩公司提供的1.40左右的非常低的赔率！事实上，我们将再一次以+1.5的赔率赌客队获胜。圣保罗在2024年12月结束的意甲联赛中仅排名第六。他们拿了59分，在很多比赛中运气都很好。59分比冠军博塔弗戈RJ少了20分。我想强调的是，圣保罗不是巴西最大/最好的球队之一！另一方面，以秘鲁的标准来看，Alianza Lima是一支强大的球队。他们目前在西甲联赛中排名第四，两队都打了六到七场比赛。他们已经拿到了13分，在比赛的各个方面都有进步。我希望他们在莫伦比斯球场的防守会很好，主要依靠快速反击和定位球来得分。事实上，这是他们非常擅长的。我相信他们会很高兴的。这里的预期进球比博彩公司估计的要小。

圣保罗在最近4场比赛中只赢了1场，在最近11场比赛中只赢了3场。此外，在过去的13场比赛中，他们只赢了一场超过一球的比赛。在上一场比赛中，他们在客场0 - 0逼平马竞，从马竞那里取了一分。然而，他们连一分都不配得。事实上，他们的预期进球数仅为0.36个，比东道主少1.12个！马竞- mg有60%的控球率，并且有更多的射门和角球（12比4）。东道主的射门总数也多出了惊人的19次。在此之前，他们在解放者杯客场1-0战胜了科尔多瓦。他们的射门命中率仅为0.21，总射门次数比东道主少12次。阿根廷东道主在xG中产生了0.94。利马联盟在最近的15场比赛中赢了8场，但说实话，最近并不是他们的最佳状态。然而，他们在最近的一些比赛中也遇到了一些坏运气。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场面对危险的对手u De Deportes，双方1-1战平。然而，他们的球员p·拉万德拉·埃尔南德斯在第16分钟就被罚下了！尽管如此，利马联盟队的防守还是非常出色——最后两队都只有一脚射正了球门。xG值很低，准确地说是0.43-0.45。在此之前，他们在解放者杯主场0-1输给了巴拉圭队。然而，利马队的控球率接近60%，并且总共射门5次。访问者在xG中产生的数据稍微多一些——准确地说是0.86-0.73。在西甲联赛的第6轮比赛中，利马队在客场0-3输给了强大的对手塔马队，这是投注市场上最受欢迎的球队。是的，塔尔玛确实应该得到三分，但最终的分数仍然是误导性的。事实上，塔玛的总射门只多了2次，在xG上多了0.87次。我需要提到的是，塔尔玛表现得很好——另一方面，利马的表现低于他们的正常水平。

好运！