82% LIGUE 1 WINS! 法甲 朗斯VS圣埃蒂安
2025-04-06

Ricards

外籍分析师

解读理由:

We are having 5 games in the French Ligue 1 on Sunday night and the 1st is going to be between Lens and Saint-Etienne. After 27 games, Lens has 11 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses, a total of 39 points, and 9th place, while Saint-Etienne has 5 wins, 5 draws, 16 losses, a total of 20 points, and 17th place. In this game, I predict Lens' win.

Lens returned to action with a 0:1 loss to Lille on the road. Before that, Lens had won 2 games in a row. Lens started March with a 3:4 loss at home to Le Havre, but that was an unfortunate loss because Lens had an xG of 1.88, while Le Havre had 1.44, and that includes the game-winning penalty in the 91st minute. Overall, Lens has been an average home team with 5 wins and 2 draws in 13 games, a total of 14 goals scored and 16 conceded. The team has created an xG of 20.7, xGA is at 15.9, with a difference of 4.8.

Saint-Etienne is the 2nd-worst team in the championship. Since February, the team has had 2 draws, 5 losses and 1 win, but that game finished early. Both draws were against teams that are at the bottom of the standings (Angers and Le Havre), as well as the win because they beat the worst team in the league, Montpellier. To be fair, Saint-Etienne shouldn't get a single point in draws because the opponents had better xG ratings, while against Montpellier, xG's were similar. Last week, Saint-Etienne was demolished by PSG at home: 1:6. On the road, Saint-Etienne has 3 draws in 13 games, a total of 10 goals scored and 40 conceded. The team has created an xG of 10.8 on the road, xGA is at 36.5, with a difference of -25.7.

Lens should win this game. They already won the 1st meeting on the road (2:0). While Lens didn't have a huge advantage in xG, at home they should be able to dominate. Saint-Etienne is a poor road team.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

周日晚上我们在法甲有5场比赛,第一场将是朗斯和圣艾蒂安之间的比赛。经过27场比赛,朗斯11胜6平10负,积分39分,排名第9,圣艾蒂安5胜5平16负,积分20分,排名第17。在这场比赛中,我预测蓝斯会赢。

朗斯在客场以0:1输给里尔的比赛中恢复了比赛。在此之前,蓝斯已经连续赢了两场比赛。三月初,朗斯主场以3:4输给勒阿弗尔,但这是一场不幸的失利,因为朗斯的xG值为1.88,而勒阿弗尔的xG值为1.44,其中包括第91分钟的制胜点球。总的来说,蓝斯队在13场比赛中取得了5胜2平的平均成绩,进14球丢16球。球队的xG值为20.7,xGA值为15.9,两者相差4.8。

圣艾蒂安是联赛中倒数第二的球队。自2月份以来,该队取得了2平5负1胜的战绩,但那场比赛提前结束。两场平局都是对阵排名垫底的球队(昂热和勒阿弗尔),而一场胜利则是因为他们击败了联赛中表现最差的球队蒙彼利埃。公平地说,圣埃蒂安不应该在平局中得到一分,因为对手的xG评分更高,而对蒙彼利埃的xG评分也差不多。上周,圣艾蒂安主场1:6被巴黎圣日耳曼击败。在客场,圣埃蒂安在13场比赛中取得3平,共进10球失40球。球队在客场创造的xG值为10.8,xGA值为36.5,两者相差-25.7。

蓝斯应该赢得这场比赛。他们已经赢得了第一次客场比赛(2:0)。虽然蓝思在xG上没有很大的优势,但在主场他们应该能够占据统治地位。圣艾蒂安是一支糟糕的客场球队。

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