Aldosivi Mar del Plata VS Club Atlético Unión

Aldosivi and Union de Santa Fe lock horns in this Liga Profesional Group A round 11 battle at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata very early Friday morning Beijing time. This is the first tier of Argentinian football. The level of this league is pretty high by global standards – but as a whole it is still somewhat far from that of the top-7 leagues.. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a game of somewhat modest quality by this league's standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here. We have won five of the last six picks in this league! Aldosivi were promoted from the Primera Nacional to the first tier for this season. They took 64 points in 38 games but their number of expected points (xPTS) was smaller. I want to highlight that the difference between the first tier and second tier is substantial – especially in terms of tempo and offensive players' individual skill level. I expect a very difficult season for them.. Let's also remember that according to Transfermarkt.com, a well-known and respected German source, Santa Fe are the bigger team here – by a big margin! Indeed, the Aldosivi players have an estimated total market value of only some six million euros. This is a very low number by the Liga Profesional standards. The Santa Fe squad is valued about 20 million but this is too low! Some 26-27 million would be a more accurate number.. Odds of around 2.60 on the away win are available on the betting market when writing this analysis Thursday afternoon Beijing time. However, I see the visitors having a 46% chance of winning. We will take the Santa Fe +0.5 goals handicap here. Indeed, the hosts cannot match the visitors in any area of the game.. They have been terrible in this league at home – failing to win a single game and allowing 14 goals! Moreover, they do not have particularly loud fans – by the Argentinian standards. They are in last place in the standings with a poor five points to their account. They have a terrible score difference of -12! Santa Fe are in 13th place with eight points in their pocket. However, their number of xPTS is somewhat bigger. They have scored only six goals but their number of expected goals (xG) is much bigger. The Santa Fe defence is much better than that of the hosts – especially in terms of structure. Santa Fe have conceded 11 goals.

Aldosivi have won only one game in the Liga Profesional this season. In their last game they defeated Gimnasia y Tiro 2-1 after penalties as clear favourites on the betting market. This Copa Argentina game was played at a neutral location. In round 10 Aldosivi beat Argentinos Juniors 2-0 away from home but I will not give this win too much emphasis.. Indeed, the hosts' F. Fattori was sent off in the 34th minute when the score was 0-1. Both teams recorded only one big scoring chance in this clash. In round 10 Aldosivi were lame, losing to Tigre 0-2 at home. The visitors recorded four big scoring chances – Aldosivi managed only one. The (xG) numbers were 1.89-1.02 in the Tigre's favour. Union Santa Fe have won three of their last five games. In their most recent match they lost to Racing 0-1 - as slim underdogs according to the bookies - at home despite having a high 73% ball possession and recording 34 goal attempts! The visitors had only five.. Furthermore, the hosts recorded many more shots on target (7-1) and big scoring chances – 6-1 to be precise. The xG numbers were 2.76-0.23. Racing Club's G. Arias was sent off in the 28th minute but Union Santa played quite well even before the red card.. Before this Santa Fe were strong, beating  a tricky opponent, Banfield, 3-1 at home. The hosts recorded four more big scoring chances (5-1) and had three more shots on target than the visitors. The xG numbers were 2.78-1.31.

GOOD LUCK!

阿多西维·马德普拉塔VS亚特兰蒂斯俱乐部Unión

北京时间周五凌晨，阿多西维和圣菲联盟将在西甲A组第11轮的比赛中在马德普拉塔的何塞球场María米内拉球场展开对决。这是阿根廷足球的第一梯队。按照全球标准，这个联赛的水平是相当高的，但从整体上看，它与排名前七的联赛相比还有很大的差距。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的质量适中的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个赚钱的机会。我们在这个联盟的最后六个选秀权中赢了五个！本赛季，阿尔多西维从西班牙甲级联赛升入甲级联赛。他们在38场比赛中得到64分，但他们的期望得分（xPTS）较少。我想强调的是，第一梯队和第二梯队之间的差异是巨大的——特别是在节奏和进攻球员的个人技术水平方面。我预计他们将迎来一个非常艰难的赛季。让我们也记住，根据Transfermarkt.com，一个著名的和受人尊敬的德国消息来源，圣达菲是更大的球队-以很大的优势！事实上，阿尔多西维球员的总市值估计只有600万欧元左右。按照西甲联赛的标准，这是一个非常低的数字。圣达菲队的价值约为2000万美元，但这太低了！更准确的数字是2600万到2700万。北京时间周四下午写这篇分析时，投注市场上客场获胜的赔率约为2.60。然而，我认为客队有46%的获胜机会。我们将在这里采用圣达菲+0.5球的障碍。的确，东道主在比赛的任何方面都比不上客队。他们在这个联赛的主场表现很糟糕——一场比赛都没赢，还丢了14个球！此外，按照阿根廷人的标准，他们没有特别大声的球迷。他们在积分榜上排名最后，只剩下可怜的5分。他们差了12分！圣达菲以8分排在第13位。但是，它们的xpt数量要大一些。他们只进了6球，但他们的预期进球数（xG）要大得多。圣达菲队的防守比东道主要好得多——尤其是在结构方面。圣达菲已经丢了11个球。

阿尔多西维本赛季在联赛中只赢了一场比赛。在上一场比赛中，他们在点球大战中2-1击败了蒂罗的吉纳西亚队，成为博彩市场上最受欢迎的球队。这场阿根廷杯比赛是在一个中立的地点进行的。在第10轮，阿尔多西维在客场2-0击败阿根廷青年，但我不会给这场胜利太多的强调。事实上，主队的f·法托里（F. Fattori）在比分为0-1的第34分钟被红牌罚下。在这场比赛中，两队都只获得了一次重要的得分机会。在第十轮比赛中，阿尔多西维表现不佳，在主场0-2不敌老虎队。客队创造了四次重要的得分机会，而阿尔多西维只抓住了一次。虎虎的xG值为1.89-1.02。圣达菲联盟最近五场比赛赢了三场。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场0-1输给了竞技队——根据博彩公司的数据，他们是微弱的劣势——尽管他们有73%的控球率和34次射门！来访者只有五个。此外，东道主创造了更多射正的机会（7胜1负）和大进球机会（准确地说是6胜1负）。xG值为2.76 ~ 0.23。赛马会的G.阿里亚斯在第28分钟被红牌罚下，但圣诞老人联盟在红牌前踢得相当好。在此之前，圣达菲很强大，在主场3-1击败了一个棘手的对手班菲尔德。主队比客队多创造了4次进球机会（5比1）和3次射正。xG值为2.78 ~ 1.31。

好运！