This is going to be a close call. Spain is a modest favourite because to their home advantage and attacking depth, but the Netherlands' desperation and counterthreat keep it close. I'm going with a 1-1 draw. The Netherlands don’t need to win—just avoid defeat—and their first-leg display (2 goals, 48% possession at times) plus Spain’s defensive tweaks give them a shot.

Luis de la Fuente’s side is missing Rodri, Aymeric Laporte, and Dani Vivian, while Pau Cubarsi’s injury from the first leg forces a reshuffle.

The Dutch are no pushovers, despite a patchier run. They finished second in Group A3 with 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss), scoring 11 goals. Their form reads 1 loss in 7 (W3, D3), with the 2-2 draw against Spain showing grit. Away from home, they’ve lost just 1 of their last 9 Nations League games (W4, D4), including a 1-0 upset over Germany in October 2024. Offensive formation is very dangerous: Gakpo (3 goals, 2 assists in the Nations League) and Reijnders (3 goals) are in form, while Memphis Depay’s return adds experience. They’ve scored in all 6 group games.

The Netherlands has been a pain in recent years, going undefeated against Spain in 90 minutes since the 2010 World Cup final (W1, D4, L1). Spain leads the record 6-5 in 13 games. Tight, high-scoring matches, like as the 5-2 German thumping in 2022, are typical of the 2-2 first leg. Although Spain won 1-0 in the last competitive game here in 1983, the Dutch have only lost once in five meetings (W3, D1).

Spain's high line was hammered by Gakpo's pace and Reijnders' runs as the Netherlands, trailing by one man late in Rotterdam, demonstrated their ability to counter. Koeman will probably take advantage of Huijsen's inexperience tonight by parking the bus early, soaking pressure, and hitting the break. Cubarsi’s exit and Huijsen’s inexperience could be exploited by Gakpo and Depay. Spain conceded twice in the first leg and 2 to Switzerland recently.

Can the Netherlands avoid a loss tonight? Absolutely—they’ve got a 45-50% chance, I’d reckon, based on their first-leg showing and historical stubbornness against Spain.

这将是一次死里逃生。由于主场优势和进攻纵深，西班牙是一个适度的热门，但荷兰队的绝望和反击让他们紧紧追上。我猜是1-1平局。荷兰队不需要赢球，只要避免失败就行了，他们首回合的表现（2球，控球率高达48%）加上西班牙队的防守调整给了他们机会。

路易斯·德拉富恩特的球队缺少罗德里、拉波特和达尼·维维安，而保罗·库巴尔西在首回合的受伤也迫使球队重新洗牌。

荷兰队虽然战绩不佳，但也不是容易被打败的球队。他们以2胜3平1负的成绩积9分，打入11球，排名A3组第二。他们的战绩是7场1负（W3, D3）， 2-2战平西班牙显示了他们的勇气。在客场，他们在最近的9场国家联赛中只输了1场（W4, D4），包括2024年10月1-0击败德国队。进攻阵型非常危险：加波（3球2助攻）和雷金德斯（3球）状态良好，而孟菲斯·德佩的回归增加了经验。他们在所有6场小组赛中都取得了进球。

荷兰队近年来一直让人头疼，自2010年世界杯决赛（W1, D4, L1）以来，荷兰队在90分钟内未输给西班牙队。西班牙在13场比赛中以6比5领先。激烈的、高得分的比赛，比如2022年德国5-2大胜，是典型的2-2首回合比赛。尽管西班牙队在1983年的最后一场正式比赛中以1比0获胜，但荷兰队在五次交锋中只输过一场（W3, D1）。

西班牙的高线被加普的速度和雷金德斯的跑动重创，荷兰队在鹿特丹最后时刻落后一人，他们展示了反击的能力。科曼今晚可能会利用慧森缺乏经验的优势，提前停车，承受压力，然后休息。库巴西的退出和惠尔森的缺乏经验可能会被Gakpo和Depay利用。西班牙在首回合丢了两球，最近又丢了两球给瑞士。

荷兰队今晚能避免输球吗？当然，根据他们首回合的表现和历史上对西班牙的顽强表现，我认为他们有45-50%的机会。