Italy and Germany meet in a high-stakes UEFA Nations League quarter-final first leg at San Siro, with both teams eager to take control of the tie before the return leg in Dortmund. Despite Germany's unbeaten run in the tournament so far, the Azzurri have history on their side and remain a formidable opponent at home.

Italy’s recent form has been steady, with just one loss in their last six outings—a 3-1 defeat to France. They are not the dominant force of old but still maintain defensive solidity and tactical discipline. Luciano Spalletti has transformed the side with a back-three system, utilizing wing-backs to maintain width and defensive cover. The absence of Federico Dimarco is a blow, but the likes of Destiny Udogie and Matteo Ruggeri provide alternatives on the left flank. In attack, Mateo Retegui has been ruled out, meaning Moise Kean and Giacomo Raspadori are likely to lead the line.

Germany, on the other hand, have shown attacking flair throughout their Nations League campaign, averaging three goals per game. However, they come into this match with key absences, most notably Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz, and Marc-André ter Stegen. Julian Nagelsmann’s side still boasts attacking firepower in Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sané, but against Italy’s well-structured defense, space will be hard to come by. The Germans will also be relying on an untested goalkeeper, with Oliver Baumann expected to start.

Historically, Italy have been Germany’s bogey team in major tournaments. The Germans have never beaten Italy in regulation time in a World Cup or European Championship, and while recent friendlies and Nations League meetings have been more balanced, playing in Milan presents a unique challenge. Germany’s away form in the Nations League has been inconsistent, with draws against Hungary and the Netherlands, indicating that they struggle to dominate tough opposition on the road.

Tactically, this game is expected to be tight and cagey, with both teams aware of the importance of avoiding defeat before the second leg. Italy will look to frustrate Germany with their compact shape, while the visitors will aim to break through using their superior individual talent in attack. With injuries affecting both sides, and Italy’s historical dominance over Germany in competitive fixtures, the Azzurri have a solid chance of securing at least a draw. Given their defensive structure and home advantage, they could even snatch a narrow win.

意大利和德国将在圣西罗举行的欧足联四分之一决赛首回合比赛中相遇，两支球队都渴望在多特蒙德的返程比赛之前控制比赛。尽管到目前为止德国队在比赛中保持不败，但蓝衣军团有他们的历史，并且在主场仍然是一个强大的对手。

意大利最近的状态很稳定，在最近的六场比赛中只输了一场——1 - 3输给了法国。他们不再是旧的主力，但仍然保持着防守的坚固和战术的纪律。卢西亚诺·斯帕莱蒂用三后卫体系改造了球队，利用边后卫来保持宽度和防守掩护。迪马科的缺席是一个打击，但是像命运·乌多吉和马特奥·鲁杰里这样的球员在左路提供了选择。在进攻端，雷特吉已经被排除在外，这意味着莫伊斯·基恩和贾科莫·拉斯多里很可能成为锋线主力。

另一方面，德国队在整个国家联赛中表现出了进攻天赋，场均攻入3球。然而，他们在这场比赛中缺少关键球员，最明显的是弗洛里安·维尔茨、凯·哈弗茨和马克·安德列尔特·斯特根。朱利安·纳格尔斯曼的球队仍然拥有贾马尔·穆西亚拉和勒罗伊·桑纳尔的进攻火力，但面对意大利结构良好的防守，空间将很难获得。德国人还将依靠一名未经考验的门将，奥利弗·鲍曼有望首发。

从历史上看，意大利队在重大赛事中一直是德国队的柏忌队。德国队从未在世界杯或欧洲杯的常规时间击败过意大利队，虽然最近的友谊赛和国家联赛的比赛更加平衡，但在米兰的比赛是一个独特的挑战。德国在国际联赛的客场表现一直不稳定，分别战平匈牙利和荷兰，这表明他们很难在客场压制强大的对手。

从战术上讲，本场比赛将是一场紧张而谨慎的比赛，两支球队都意识到在第二回合之前避免失败的重要性。意大利希望以紧凑的阵型挫败德国，而客队则希望利用他们出色的个人进攻才能突破。由于双方都受到伤病的影响，加上意大利在比赛中对德国的历史优势，蓝衣军团有坚实的机会确保至少一场平局。考虑到他们的防守结构和主场优势，他们甚至可以险胜。