Italy VS Germany

Italy welcome Germany for this UEFA Nations League League A Playoffs first leg clash at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) in Milan early Friday morning Beijing time. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of excellent quality by international standards here.. Germany are currently in 10th place in the FIFA ranking. Italy on the other hand, occupy the 9th place. However, in my power rating, that reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible lineups – excluding all the special factors - for example motivation and fatigue - caused by a grueling schedule -  I see Germany as slightly the better team. However, here their squad is far from the best possible! With the expected lineups I see the teams equal here. With the substantial home advantage Italy undoubtedly deserve to be the favourites. As the bookies disagree, offering both teams odds of around 2.75 to win, we will take the Italy +0.5 goals handicap option. Yes, Italy do have some annoying absences but Germany's Julian Nagelsmann has many more absences to deal with as  Kai Havertz, Benjamin Henrichs, Felix Nmecha, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Marc-Andre ter Stegen and Bayer Leverkusen star, of of the best German players, Florian Wirtz are all out. As a result, Leon Goretzka is back in the German squad for the first time since November 2023. Karim Adeyemi is also rewarded for his quite strong form. Nadiem Amiri of Bundesliga's big (positive) surprise team, Mainz 05, ends a four-year hiatus from the national team. Inter Milan defender Y.Bisseck, who will be on familiar turf at San Siro, has been given his first ever senior call-up. Italy have lost only one of their last 11 home games – winning 8/11 matches!

Italy have lost only one of their last six games. This defeat came in their most recent match – 1-3 at home against France, one of the best national teams on the planet. However, Italy had 54% ball possession and also recorded many more goal attempts (10-6) shots inside the penalty box and shots off goal. Both teams had the same number of shots on goal as well as big scoring chances. Italy also generated 0.35 more in expected goals (xG). Before this Italy defeated Belgium, a very dangerous team, currently in 8th place in the FIFA Ranking. Italy were the underdogs in this away game but won 1-0 after generating 2.58 in xG. Belgium managed only 0.58! In round four of the league phase Italy crushed Israel 4-1 at home, recording a big 17 goal attempts. The xG numbers were 2.87-0.30. Germany have won four of their last seven games. In their last game they faced Hungary away from home – as very clear favourites on the betting market. Germany had 71% ball possession but the Hungarians recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal (6-3) and shots inside the box. The xG numbers were 1.93-1.38 in the hosts' favour. Before this Germany crushed a very disappointing Bosnia & Herzegovina 7-0 at home – priced around 1.06-1.08 to win by the bookies. The xG numbers were 4.12-0.76. I want to highlight that the visitors were even worse than expected and despite the fact that Germany performed well I will not give this win too much emphasis ahead of this very tricky game..

GOOD LUCK!

意大利VS德国

北京时间周五凌晨，意大利将在米兰圣西罗球场迎来欧洲足球联盟甲级联赛季后赛首回合对阵德国队的比赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场符合国际标准的高质量比赛。德国目前在国际足联排名中排名第十。另一方面，意大利占据了第9位。然而，在我的实力评级中，这反映了球队的纯粹等级，他们拥有最好的阵容——排除所有特殊因素——比如动力和疲劳——由紧张的赛程引起——我认为德国队略好一些。然而，在这里他们的阵容远不是最好的！在预期的阵容中，我认为两支球队是平等的。凭借巨大的主场优势，意大利无疑应该成为夺冠热门。由于博彩公司不同意，两队的赔率都在2.75左右，我们将采用意大利+0.5进球障碍选项。是的，意大利队确实有一些令人烦恼的缺阵，但德国队的纳格尔斯曼有更多的缺阵要处理，因为哈弗茨、亨利克斯、恩米查、巴甫洛维奇、特尔斯特根和勒沃库森球星，德国最好的球员之一弗洛里安·维尔茨都缺阵了。因此，列昂·戈雷茨卡自2023年11月以来首次回到德国队的大名单中。卡里姆·阿德耶米也因其强劲的状态而受到嘉奖。德甲劲旅美因茨05队的纳迪姆·阿米里结束了缺席国家队四年的日子。国际米兰后卫比塞克，将在圣西罗熟悉的球场上踢球，他第一次得到了国家队的征召。意大利在最近的11场主场比赛中只输了一场——8胜11负！

意大利在过去的六场比赛中只输了一场。这场失利发生在他们最近的一场比赛中——主场1-3对阵世界上最好的国家队之一法国队。然而，意大利的控球率为54%，并且在禁区内射门和射门次数（10-6次）也更多。两支球队都有相同的射门次数和进球机会。意大利的预期进球数也高出0.35个（xG）。在此之前，意大利击败了比利时，一支非常危险的球队，目前在国际足联排名第8位。意大利队在这场客场比赛中处于劣势，但在xG比赛中获得2.58分后以1比0获胜。比利时只拿到0.58分！在联赛阶段的第四轮，意大利在主场以4比1大胜以色列，总共有17个进球。xG值为2.87 ~ 0.30。德国队在过去七场比赛中赢了四场。在上一场比赛中，他们在客场面对匈牙利队——在博彩市场上，匈牙利队显然是夺冠热门。德国队的控球率为71%，但匈牙利人的射门次数、射正次数（6比3）和禁区内射门次数要多得多。对东道主有利的xG值为1.93-1.38。在此之前，德国在主场以7比0击败了令人失望的波黑，博彩公司的胜率约为1.06比1.08。xG值为4.12 ~ 0.76。我想强调的是客队的表现比预期的还要糟糕，尽管德国队表现得很好，但在这场非常棘手的比赛之前，我不会过多强调这场胜利。

好运！