Completely wrong odds in Ligue 2 today!
2021-12-11

Przem

外籍分析师

法乙

12/11 22:00

已完赛

解读理由:

In my opinion Le Havre have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up. I see excellent value on home side-Le Havre shouldn't be underdog in this match up.

Le Havre coming for this game with the strongest possible line up, on the other hand Ajaccio have some squad problems-their second-best player (according to the ratings) and best assistant Mathieu Coutadeur is still not fully fit, he played 13 minutes in last round, but doesn't looked good at all. Same problem with their top scorer Ryad Nouri-he played only 46 minute together in 3 matches in last month.

Both teams are in top 6 now, both teams fighting to get promotion into Ligue 1. I don't see big difference between them. Very similar level with the ball - Le Havre have 283 accurate passes per game, Ajaccio have 292. Both are top teams at the back - Ajaccio conceded 0.5 goals per game so far, Le Havre 0.6. Ajaccio recorded 57 shots on target in current season (3.4 per game), Le Havre 54 (3.2 per game). So if both teams are very balanced in all departments why I trust Le Havre?

I believe home advantage will make big difference in today's match. Le Havre currently have outstanding streak at home against Ajaccio. They didn't lost against them at home in last 10 league matches in a row. Last season match between both teams at this stadium finished with draw 1:1. Hosts have all required tools to continue this good streak today - they extremely solid team at home. They made at least one point in 48 of last 61 home Ligue 2 matches. On the other hand Ajaccio is not so strong on away - they won only 18 of last 60 away Ligue 2 matches. Difference between both clubs in that department is huge.

Le Havre is super consistent team - in 17 matches in current season they recorded only 2 losses. Only leaders from Toulouse have the same number of losses on their account. They are coming for today's match in good mood as they won 2:1 on away in last round against Grenoble.

In last round Ajaccio failed to win (0:0) at home against out-of-form Valenciennes (just two points above relegation zone). Once again they had problems with finishing product - Ajaccio scored only 2 goals in last 4 matches.

It's very important match today at Stade Oceane for all supporters and many players. Le Havre community really is pumped to win against Ajaccio since their lost against them after penalties in famous Ligue 1 qualification match in 2018. Le Havre key central midfielder Victor Lekhal said: "AC Ajaccio? It's always special, especially for those who played the play-offs (in 2018). It was a complicated time in our careers. We were somewhat the victims of injustice. We can't be scattered either, it's still a three-point game. We want to win and end this calendar year with a bang."

I believe Le Havre is in good state and they are moving in good direction, atmosphere in team is great. Lekhal said: ''Access roadblocks? For now, we are taking game after game. We are coming out of a very complicated season. We know where we come from, there is no need to ignite, we remain humble. The group knows what to do. Today, we are at the top, we are ambitious and we try to stay there by winning each match to claim more. But for now, we are not putting pressure on ourselves, we continue to work with a fairly young group who really want to progress. The goal is there for now. I knew the HAC in L1 when I was young, it makes you dream. Being part of this project is incredible. Every day of the week, we work for it, I hope we will achieve it this year."

Odds are completely wrong in my opinion. Obviously, it's a close match up, but Le Havre at home is very hard team to beat. I trust for them.


在我看来,勒阿弗尔有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少取得一分。我看到了主队极好的价值——勒阿弗尔不应该在这场比赛中处于劣势。

勒阿弗尔以最强阵容参加本场比赛,另一方面阿雅克肖有一些阵容问题——他们的第二好球员(根据收视率)和最佳助手马蒂厄·库塔杜尔仍然没有完全适应,他上场了 13 分钟最后一轮,但看起来一点也不好看。他们的最佳射手 Ryad Nouri 也有同样的问题——他在上个月的 3 场比赛中只打了 46 分钟。

两支球队现在都在前六名,两支球队都在努力晋级法甲。我认为他们之间没有太大区别。球的水平非常相似——勒阿弗尔每场有 283 次准确传球,阿雅克肖有 292 次。两支球队都是后防线的顶级球队——到目前为止,阿雅克肖场均失球 0.5 球,勒阿弗尔 0.6。本赛季阿雅克肖射正 57 次(场均 3.4 次),勒阿弗尔 54 次(场均 3.2 次)。所以如果两支球队在所有环节都非常相似,为什么我相信勒阿弗尔?

我相信主场优势会在今天的比赛中产生很大的不同。勒阿弗尔目前在主场对阵阿雅克修的比赛中表现出色。最近10场联赛,他们在主场没有输给阿雅克肖。上赛季两队在这个球场的比赛以1:1战平。主队拥有今天继续保持这一良好势头的能力——他们在主场非常稳固。在过去的 61 场法乙比赛中,他们在 48 场比赛中至少取得了 1 分。另一方面,阿雅克肖在客场表现不佳——他们在过去 60 场客场比赛中只赢了 18 场。主客场之间的差异是巨大的。

勒阿弗尔是一支超级稳定的球队——在本赛季的 17 场比赛中,他们只输了 2 场。只有图卢兹有相同的表现。他们在上轮客场2:1战胜格勒诺布尔,以良好的状态来参加今天的比赛。

上轮阿雅克肖在主场对阵状态不佳的瓦朗谢讷(仅比降级区高出两分)未能取胜(0:0)。他们又一次在完成比赛时遇到了问题——阿雅克肖在过去的 4 场比赛中只进了 2 球。

今天在Stade Oceane 举行的比赛对所有球迷和许多球员来说都是非常重要的。勒阿弗尔真的很想赢阿雅克肖,因为他们在 2018 年著名的法甲资格赛点球后输给了阿雅克肖。勒阿弗尔的关键中场维克多莱哈尔说:“AC 阿雅克肖?这总是很特别,尤其是对于那些提供这场比赛的人来说-(2018年)。那是我们职业生涯中的一段复杂时期。我们受到了不公正的判罚。这不能散去,这是一场争夺三分的比赛。我们想赢得这场比赛给这个月完美收官。”

我相信勒阿弗尔的状态很好,他们正在朝着好的方向前进,团队氛围很好。 Lekhal 说:“目前,我们正在一场又一场的比赛。我们正在度过一个非常复杂的赛季。我们知道我们来自哪里,不需要点燃,我们保持谦虚。小组知道该怎么做。今天,我们位居榜首,我们雄心勃勃,我们试图通过赢得每场比赛来获得更多的胜利。但就目前而言,我们并没有给自己施加压力,我们继续与一个真正想要进步的年轻团队一起工作。目标是现在。成为这个团队的一部分令人难以置信。一周中的每一天,我们都为之努力,我希望我们能在今年实现它。”

在我看来,指数是完全错误的。显然,这是一场势均力敌的比赛,但勒阿弗尔在主场是很难击败的球队。我信任他们。

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