Benfica VS AS Monaco

Benfica host Monaco in this UEFA Champions League (UCL) Playoffs round 1 2nd leg clash at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon early Wednesday morning Beijing time. This is the best of UEFA’s three club competitions. We can expect a game of pretty mediocre quality by this league’s very high standards. The hosts are one of the three big clubs in Portugal. Monaco play in the French Ligue 1. Most importantly, we have yet another excellent betting opportunity here to extend the fine run of 7/8 last picks won betting on this league. In the league phase Benfica finished in 16th place with 13 points to their account. They had a good score difference of 16:12. Monaco, too, grabbed 13 points but their score difference was 13:13. I was quite disappointed with their offense in several games. Their attacks were often too slow and predictable -making it easy for the opponent to organize the defence. Benfica were the much better team in the 1st leg last week. They won only 1-0 but recorded a whopping 23 goal attempts – 17 more than Monaco. They also had many more shots on goal, big scoring chances (2-0), shots off goal and corner kicks – 7-2. The expected goals (xG) numbers were 2.43-0.43 in the visitors’ favour. Monaco’s Al Musrati was sent off in the 52nd minute when the score was 0-1 trough V. Pavladis’ goal. Monaco were not playing well even before the red card. No, Benfica do not need to win this game to qualify but Monaco will have to increase the risk level in the second half at the latest and I believe this will not end well for them.. Monaco winning would not be a huge surprise but the hosts still deserve to be clear favourites in front of their loud and demanding fans! Odds of around 1.85 are available on the home win. According to my sophisticated, strongly-data-based expert analysis – taking the big number of absentees (both teams) into account - Benfica have a 61% chance of winning! They have an edge over the visitors in both defence and offense..

Let's not forget that Benfica have bene in great form recently - winning five games in a row and eight of their last 10 matches! In their last game they faced Santa Clara, a dangerous opponent who are currently in 5th place in the Liga Portugal. Benfica won only 1-0 but recorded four big scoring chances – allowing the hosts none! The xG numbers were 2.78-0.77 in Benfica’s favour. Before beating Monaco Benfica beat Moreirense 3-2 at home despite being far from their best. They recorded many more goal attempts and shots on goal. Benfica also generated 0.67 more in xG than the visitors. In round 20 Benfica beat Estrela 3-2 away from home and fully deserved the three points. They recorded seven more goal attempts and five more shots on target as well as 0.93 more in xG than the hosts. Benfica are in 2nd place in the standings with a fine 50 points to their account. Benfica’s score difference is excellent – 50:18 to be precise. At home they have won 10/11 Liga Portugal games. Monaco on the other hand, have lost two of their last three games. In their last game they beat Nantes 7-1 at home but generated “only” 4.13 in xG. Nantes’ N. Cozza was, however, sent off in the 8th minute when the score was 0-1. This, of course, had a massive effect on the game. I will not give this big win too much emphasis. Monaco were, after all, very clear favourites in this game on the betting market. Let’s keep in mind that Monaco have not won any of their last six away games, losing 5/6! Before suffering a defeat to Benfica they lost to PSG 1-4 on the road. PSG are the best team in the Ligue 1 but Monaco were still poor in this game.. In their last UCL league stage game Monaco lost to Inter 0-3 in Italy, failing to record a single shot on target! The xG numbers were 3.84-0.22 in Inter’s favour! Monaco’s C. Mawissa Elebi was sent off in the 12th minute when the score was 1-0. In the Ligue 1 Monaco have been okay as a whole so far this season, taking 40 points in 22 games. PSG, the current leaders, however, have grabbed 56 points already. Monaco’s score difference is 44:29. I would not be at all surprised if they were to finish outside the top-4 – or even top-5..

GOOD LUCK!

本菲卡VS摩纳哥

北京时间周三凌晨，本菲卡主场迎战摩纳哥，将在里斯本举行欧冠季后赛第1轮第2回合的比赛。这是欧足联三场俱乐部比赛中最好的一场。按照联盟的高标准，我们可以期待一场质量相当平庸的比赛。东道主是葡萄牙三大俱乐部之一。摩纳哥队参加法甲联赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个绝佳的投注机会，可以延长上次7/8的投注成绩。在联赛阶段，本菲卡以13分排名第16。他们的比分相差16分12秒。摩纳哥也拿到了13分，但他们的积分差距是13:13。在几场比赛中，我对他们的进攻相当失望。他们的进攻往往过于缓慢和可预测，这使得对手很容易组织防守。本菲卡在上周的首回合比赛中表现要好得多。他们只赢了1-0，但却记录了惊人的23次进球，比摩纳哥多17次。他们也有更多的正门射门，更大的得分机会（2-0），射门和角球——7-2。客队的预期进球数为2.43比0.43。摩纳哥的穆拉蒂在第52分钟因帕夫拉迪斯的进球被红牌罚下，当时比分为0-1。摩纳哥在红牌之前就打得不好。不，本菲卡不需要赢得这场比赛来出线，但摩纳哥将不得不在下半场提高风险水平，我相信这对他们来说不会有好结果。摩纳哥的胜利不会是一个巨大的惊喜，但东道主仍然值得在他们的大声和苛刻的球迷面前的明显的最爱！主场获胜的赔率约为1.85。根据我的复杂的，强有力的数据为基础的专家分析-考虑到大量缺阵（两队）-本菲卡有61%的获胜机会！他们在防守和进攻方面都比客队有优势。

我们不要忘记本菲卡最近的状态非常好——五连胜，最近10场比赛赢了8场！在上一场比赛中，他们面对的是圣克拉拉，一个目前在葡萄牙联赛排名第五的危险对手。本菲卡只赢了1-0，但却创造了4次重要的进球机会——没有让主队进球！xG值为2.78-0.77，对本菲卡有利。在击败摩纳哥之前，本菲卡在主场3-2击败莫雷伦斯，尽管他们的状态远未达到最佳。他们记录了更多的射门尝试和射门。本菲卡队也比客队多出0.67分。本菲卡在第20轮客场3-2击败埃斯特雷拉，完全配得上三分。他们的进球次数比东道主多7次，射门次数多5次，射门次数也比东道主多0.93次。本菲卡目前在积分榜上排名第二，积分榜上还有50分。本菲卡的比分差距非常大——准确地说是50:18。在主场，他们赢得了10/11场葡萄牙联赛的胜利。另一方面，摩纳哥在最近三场比赛中输了两场。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场以7-1击败南特，但在xG中“只有”4.13。然而，南特队的科扎在第8分钟被罚下，当时比分为0-1。当然，这对游戏产生了巨大的影响。我不会给这个大胜利太多的强调。毕竟，摩纳哥是这场比赛在博彩市场上非常明显的热门球队。让我们记住，摩纳哥在过去的6场客场比赛中没有赢过一场，6胜5负！在输给本菲卡之前，他们客场1-4输给了巴黎圣日耳曼。巴黎圣日耳曼是法甲最好的球队，但摩纳哥在这场比赛中仍然很差。在上一场欧冠小组赛中，摩纳哥在意大利0-3不敌国际米兰，一球未射正！xG的数据是3.84比0.22，对国米有利！摩纳哥的C. Mawissa Elebi在第12分钟被罚下，当时比分是1-0。在法甲联赛中，摩纳哥本赛季到目前为止表现还不错，22场比赛拿到了40分。然而，目前的领头羊巴黎圣日耳曼已经拿到了56分。摩纳哥的比分差距是44:29。如果他们排在前4名甚至前5名之外，我一点也不会感到惊讶。

好运！