LEGANES - ALAVES

There's no way Alavés should be considered the favorite here. Both teams are currently at the same level, but Leganés has more arguments to win or at least be the slight favorite, so the value is clearly on their side in this fixture.

Leganés, a newly promoted team, knew from day one that the relegation battle would be a constant concern. They expected to struggle to avoid the drop until the final rounds of the season.

They made a strong start, especially in the first 15 rounds, picking up a solid number of points thanks to their defensive stability and strong home performances. However, they are now in a poor run of form and sit just one point above the relegation zone, level on points with Las Palmas and Espanyol. In reality, they are right where they expected to be at this stage.

With Valladolid virtually relegated, two more spots remain for five teams, including both Leganés and Alavés.

Leganés has looked uncompetitive in their last two league games, but before that, they were consistently solid over 21 matches. That’s why I expect a reaction in this home fixture, which could be a crucial moment in their relegation battle. Even in the midst of those two recent losses, they put in a strong performance against Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey, proving that they are still alive, motivated, and trusting the process.

Their biggest issue is their lack of goals, with only 19 scored all season. This is why they always aim for slow-paced games, where they feel comfortable grinding out low-scoring results. They kept 30% of their games to nil, even more than Barcelona and only less than Atletico, Real Sociedad, Real Madrid, Getafe and Athletic.

Alavés, on the other hand, has one key difference compared to Leganés: morale. They did not expect to be in this situation, especially after the coaching change. Under former manager Luis García Plaza, they were never in the relegation zone. Since the appointment of Chacho Coudet, however, they have won just one game—a lucky 3-1 victory against Betis, where their opponent received a red card. In an 11 vs. 11 match, I highly doubt they would have won. That remains their only victory since November 1st. The coach change was done to improve and the result has been the opposite.

Their last defeat against Getafe was particularly damaging. The players looked completely drained, unmotivated, and unable to turn things around. A common theme under Coudet has been their inability to maintain concentration for a full 90 minutes. Every match, they seem to switch off for 10-20 minutes, which almost always results in a goal conceded. Only one team have kept the goal to nil less times than Alaves (13% of their games): Villarreal.

I expect a very tight game, full of nerves on both sides. However, playing at home, Leganés should be able to dictate the tempo and control the match, particularly from a mental standpoint. A draw wouldn’t be a bad result for them, as it would keep Alavés in the relegation zone and two points behind. Meanwhile, Alavés is the team under greater pressure to win, coming into this match with lower morale and more doubts, which could make them even more anxious.

The reverse fixture ended in a 1-1 draw, highlighting how evenly matched these teams are in terms of quality. However, when considering morale, motivation, and home support, Leganés clearly has the advantage.

OSASUNA - REAL MADRID

This is a game where Osasuna has a real chance to take advantage of Real Madrid’s current situation, which is far from ideal.

Osasuna has been inconsistent this season, but at home, they have delivered their best performances and have been one of the most reliable teams in the league. In fact, they have lost only twice in 12 home matches, making them one of the strongest home sides this season.

The reason for this is that, after several years, we are seeing the classic Osasuna home team: incredible fan support, high intensity, relentless pressing, and a deadly counterattack. They thrive in high-paced games, something both the team and the coach understand well, as they have the right tools to impose this style.

Osasuna is at its best when they have space to counter, as seen in their wins against Real Sociedad (2-1), Athletic in the Copa del Rey (2-3), and most notably, their stunning 4-2 victory over Barcelona, where Bryan Zaragoza was lethal in transition.

Zaragoza, after missing some games due to injury, is now back and fully fit. He could play a crucial role in this match, especially against a weakened Real Madrid defense that will struggle with his speed and movement.

Real Madrid comes into this game with several issues. First, fatigue—having played a highly intense and demanding match against Manchester City in the Champions League. With the second leg coming up midweek, heavy rotations are unlikely. Rodrygo might be replaced by Brahim, but Ancelotti has very limited options due to injuries.

Defensively, Madrid is severely depleted. Militão, Lucas Vázquez, and Carvajal are all out, while Rüdiger and Alaba will be rested ahead of the City game. This means an entirely makeshift backline, with Valverde forced to play out of position at right-back and Tchouaméni slotting in as a center-back. In midfield, Modrić could struggle in such a high-intensity game.

Madrid’s defensive vulnerabilities have been evident lately, conceding six goals in their last four matches, including against relegation-threatened sides like Leganés and Espanyol. With this improvised defense, these problems could be even more pronounced.

Away from home, Madrid has won just six of their 12 league matches, conceding 11 goals—almost one per game. They have kept a clean sheet in only three of those games, further highlighting their defensive instability.

I expect an open match where Osasuna can have the upper hand in terms of intensity and morale. Of course, Madrid has the quality and firepower to decide the game with individual brilliance, but their defensive frailties make them very vulnerable here—especially considering the UCL games surrounding this fixture.

This definitely won’t be an easy match for Real Madrid, and Osasuna has already proven to be a highly competitive and difficult team to beat. They have shown they can take down a league giant, as they did against Barcelona, and they are fully capable of doing it again.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

雷根属-叶类

在这里不应该把alav<s:1>看作是最受欢迎的。两支球队目前处于同一水平，但莱甘萨斯有更多的理由赢得比赛，或者至少是稍微受欢迎的球队，所以在这场比赛中，他们的价值显然是站在他们一边的。

刚晋升的莱甘萨梅斯队从第一天起就知道，保级之战将是一个持续的问题。他们希望在赛季的最后几轮比赛之前努力避免下滑。

他们开局强势，尤其是在前15轮，凭借稳定的防守和强劲的主场表现，他们拿到了很多积分。然而，他们现在的状态很糟糕，只比降级区多1分，与拉斯帕尔马斯和西班牙人的积分持平。在现实中，他们正处在他们预期的这个阶段。

随着巴利亚多利德的降级，还有五支球队还剩下两个席位，其中包括莱甘-萨默斯和阿拉夫-萨默斯。

在最近的两场联赛中，雷甘斯看起来没有竞争力，但在那之前，他们在21场比赛中表现稳定。这就是为什么我期待他们在这场主场比赛中做出反应，这可能是他们保级战的关键时刻。即使在最近的两场失利中，他们在国王杯对阵皇马的比赛中也表现出色，证明了他们仍然充满活力，充满动力，并且相信这个过程。

他们最大的问题是进球太少，整个赛季只有19个进球。这就是为什么他们总是瞄准慢节奏的游戏，在那里他们可以轻松地完成低得分的结果。他们有30%的比赛失误为零，甚至超过了巴塞罗那，只低于马竞、皇家社会、皇家马德里、赫塔菲和竞技。

另一方面，与雷甘斯相比，阿拉夫的薪金与雷甘斯有一个关键的区别：士气。他们没有想到会出现这种情况，尤其是在换帅之后。在前主教练路易斯García广场的带领下，他们从未进入降级区。然而，自从库代特上任以来，他们只赢了一场比赛——一场幸运的3-1战胜贝蒂斯，而他们的对手却吃到了红牌。在一场11对11的比赛中，我非常怀疑他们会赢。这是他们自11月1日以来唯一的胜利。换教练是为了提高，结果却适得其反。

他们上一场对赫塔菲的失利尤其具有破坏性。球员们看起来精疲力竭，毫无动力，无法扭转局面。在库德特的带领下，一个共同的主题就是他们无法在整整90分钟内保持专注。每场比赛，他们似乎都有10到20分钟的休息时间，而这几乎总是导致失球。只有一支球队比阿拉维斯的失球次数还少（13%），那就是比利亚雷亚尔。

我认为这将是一场激烈的比赛，双方都很紧张。然而，在主场比赛，莱甘萨梅斯应该能够控制比赛的节奏和控制比赛，特别是从精神的角度来看。平局对他们来说并不是一个坏的结果，因为这将使alavsamas保持在降级区并且落后2分。与此同时，阿拉维斯是一支压力更大的球队，在这场比赛中士气低落，疑虑重重，这可能会让他们更加焦虑。

相反的比赛以1-1平局结束，这凸显了两支球队在实力上是多么不相上下。然而，当考虑到士气、动力和家庭支持时，legansamus显然具有优势。

奥萨苏纳——皇家马德里

在这场比赛中，奥萨苏纳有机会利用皇马目前的状况，而皇马目前的状况远非理想。

奥萨苏纳本赛季表现不稳定，但在主场，他们表现最好，是联赛中最可靠的球队之一。事实上，他们在12场主场比赛中只输了两场，这使他们成为本赛季最强的主场球队之一。

原因是，几年过去了，我们看到的是奥萨苏纳的经典主场：令人难以置信的球迷支持、高强度、无情的压迫和致命的反击。他们在快节奏的比赛中表现出色，这一点球队和教练都很清楚，因为他们有合适的工具来实施这种风格。

当奥萨苏纳有反击的空间时，他们就会发挥出最好的状态，比如在对阵皇家社会（2-1）、国王杯对阵竞技（2-3）的比赛中，最值得注意的是，他们以惊人的4-2战胜巴塞罗那，布莱恩·萨拉戈萨在过渡中发挥了致命的作用。

萨拉戈萨在因伤缺席了几场比赛后，现在已经完全康复。他将在这场比赛中扮演至关重要的角色，尤其是面对皇马的后防线，他的速度和跑动将会给皇马带来很大的冲击。

皇马在这场比赛中有几个问题。首先,疲劳

-在欧冠对阵曼城的比赛中踢了一场高强度和高强度的比赛。第二回合比赛将在周中进行，不太可能出现大的轮换。罗德里戈可能会被卜拉希姆取代，但由于伤病，安切洛蒂的选择非常有限。

在防守端，皇马已经被严重削弱。米利特<e:1>、卢卡斯Vázquez和卡瓦哈尔都将缺席，而雷迪格和阿拉巴将在与曼城的比赛前休息。这意味着一个完全临时的后防线，巴尔韦德被迫在右后卫的位置上，而楚阿姆萨尼则成为中后卫。在中场，莫德里奇可能会在这样高强度的比赛中挣扎。

马德里的防守弱点最近很明显，在最近的四场比赛中丢了六球，包括对阵莱甘萨梅斯和西班牙人这样的保级威胁球队。有了这种临时防御，这些问题可能会更加明显。

在客场，马德里在12场联赛中只赢了6场，丢了11个球——几乎是一场一球。他们在这些比赛中只有三场没有失球，这进一步凸显了他们防守的不稳定性。

我期待一场开放的比赛，奥萨苏纳在强度和士气上都能占上风。当然，马德里有实力和火力来决定比赛，但他们的防守弱点使他们在这里非常脆弱，特别是考虑到围绕这个比赛的欧冠比赛。

这对皇马来说绝对不会是一场轻松的比赛，奥萨苏纳已经证明了他们是一支非常有竞争力和很难被击败的球队。他们已经证明了他们可以击败联赛巨人，就像他们击败巴塞罗那一样，他们完全有能力再次做到这一点。