MONACO - BENFICA

Benfica already proved they can go to Monaco and get a result, having won 3-2 at the Stade Louis II in the league phase of the Champions League. That match wasn’t just a lucky victory—it was a deserved one, with Benfica generating 3.03 xG compared to Monaco’s 1.70. That tells me that Benfica consistently found good scoring opportunities and, crucially, were able to convert them. Given Monaco’s recent struggles and Benfica’s strong European away record, I see real value in backing the Portuguese side to win or at least secure a draw.

Monaco's form is a serious concern. They’ve lost five of their nine matches in 2025 and just suffered a 4-1 thrashing against Paris Saint-Germain. Conceding 11 goals in their last four games suggests defensive fragility, and that is a problem against a Benfica team that has been scoring freely. Monaco's defense will also be missing key players, with Christian Mawissa suspended and Wilfried Singo and Jordan Teze doubtful. That could force Adi Hütter into playing a makeshift backline, which doesn’t bode well against Benfica’s attacking threats.

On the other hand, Benfica comes into this match in much better spirits. A few weeks ago, they were in turmoil after a shocking 5-4 home loss to Barcelona and a disappointing defeat to Casa Pia. However, since then, they have turned things around with a massive 2-0 win at Juventus to secure their playoff spot, followed by two straight 3-2 victories in the league. Their defense still has issues, but they have the firepower to cause Monaco problems, especially with Vangelis Pavlidis in top form.

One key factor is that Benfica has performed well against French teams historically, losing just three of their last 13 matches against Ligue 1 opposition. They also seem to have Monaco’s number, having taken four points off them in the 2014 group stage and beating them again earlier this season. That psychological edge matters in European competition.

Monaco will likely try to take the initiative at home, but their defensive vulnerabilities make them highly susceptible to Benfica’s counterattacks. With Di María likely back in the squad, Pavlidis in great form, and the midfield trio of Aursnes, Florentino, and Kökçü offering control, Benfica should be able to dictate long periods of the game. Given their European away form—winning four of their last five on the road in the Champions League—I expect them to at least avoid defeat.

A tight game is likely, and Monaco does have the quality to be competitive, but their current form and defensive issues give Benfica a clear edge. I see this one ending in either a draw or another Benfica victory, setting them up well for the return leg in Lisbon.

YOKOHAMA MARINOS - SHANGHAI

Yokohama F. Marinos are the best attacking team in the AFC Champions League East, and I fully expect them to continue their dominance with a win over Shanghai Shenhua. They only need a point to guarantee their place in the last 16, but with their firepower and home form, I don’t see them settling for a draw. They’ve scored 20 goals in six matches, and at home, they’ve been unstoppable—three wins, 11 goals scored, and zero conceded. That’s title-contender form.

Shanghai Shenhua, on the other hand, are barely holding on. They’ve only won twice in this tournament, and both victories came at home. One of those was a fortunate comeback against Pohang, and the other was against Kawasaki, where they played with a man advantage for 85 minutes. Their away form is concerning—two losses and a draw, including a defeat to Gwangju. Facing the most dangerous attack in the competition at a stadium where Yokohama have been perfect? That’s a nightmare scenario for them.

Anderson Lopes is the man to watch. Six goals already in the competition, and he’s been lethal in every way—inside the box, outside the box, in transition, and from set pieces. He’s supported by two quality wingers, Elber and Yan Matheus, who stretch defenses and create overloads. The full-backs, Ken Matsubara and Katsuya Nagato, love to push forward, adding even more width and making Yokohama’s attack even harder to contain. This is a team that attacks relentlessly, and with Shanghai’s defensive vulnerabilities, they’re going to struggle to keep them quiet.

Shanghai’s only real threat is André Luís. He’s a proven goalscorer and has four in the competition, plus 17 in the Chinese league last season. But he’s not getting enough support. Their midfield, led by Wu Xi and Xie Pengfei, will try to launch counter-attacks, but they don’t have the pace or fluidity to transition quickly enough. Former Arsenal youth player Li Ke might help defensively, but stopping Yokohama’s attacking machine is an entirely different challenge.

Shanghai’s defense isn’t strong enough to handle Marinos' movement, and their attack is the second-worst in the tournament, with just nine goals. That’s a massive contrast to Yokohama’s 20, and I don’t see how Shanghai will be able to keep up. They might sit deep and try to frustrate the home side, but once Yokohama find the breakthrough, it could turn ugly.

Marinos have strengthened their squad too, adding Quiñones from Colombia and Sandy Walsh from Mechelen, making their backline even more solid. Meanwhile, Shanghai made minimal changes, with Saulo Minero from Ceará their only notable signing. That’s not enough to bridge the gap in quality.

Everything points to a comfortable home win. Yokohama have the best attack, the best home record, and the momentum, while Shanghai have struggled away from home and lack firepower. I see a dominant performance from the Tricolor, probably a multi-goal victory.

摩纳哥-本菲卡

本菲卡已经证明了他们可以去摩纳哥并取得一个结果，他们在冠军杯联赛阶段的路易斯二世球场以3-2获胜。那场比赛不仅仅是一场幸运的胜利——这是一场应得的胜利，本菲卡队产生了3.03 × g，而摩纳哥队为1.70 × g。这告诉我，本菲卡一直都能找到很好的得分机会，最重要的是，他们能够将这些机会转化为进球。考虑到摩纳哥最近的挣扎和本菲卡在欧洲赛场的强劲客场战绩，我认为支持葡萄牙球队赢得比赛或至少确保一场平局是很有价值的。

摩纳哥的状态令人担忧。他们在2025年的9场比赛中输掉了5场，刚刚被巴黎圣日耳曼队以4比1惨败。在过去的四场比赛中丢了11个球，这表明他们的防守很脆弱，这对本菲卡队来说是个问题，他们一直在进球。摩纳哥的后防线也将缺少关键球员，马维萨将停赛，辛格和泰泽也不确定。这可能会迫使阿迪·赫<e:1>特打一个临时的后防线，这对本菲卡的进攻威胁来说并不是一个好兆头。

另一方面，本菲卡带着更好的精神进入这场比赛。几周前，他们在主场4 - 5负于巴塞罗那和令人失望地输给卡萨皮亚后陷入了混乱。然而，从那以后，他们扭转了局面，以2-0大胜尤文图斯，确保了他们的季后赛席位，随后在联赛中连续两场3-2获胜。他们的防守仍然有问题，但他们有足够的火力给摩纳哥制造麻烦，尤其是在帕夫利迪斯处于最佳状态的情况下。

一个关键因素是本菲卡在历史上对阵法国球队时表现出色，在最近13场对阵法甲对手的比赛中只输了3场。他们似乎也有摩纳哥的数字，在2014年小组赛中从摩纳哥身上拿走了4分，并在本赛季早些时候再次击败了摩纳哥。这种心理优势在欧洲比赛中很重要。

摩纳哥可能会尝试在主场取得主动，但他们的防守脆弱使他们极易受到本菲卡的反击。随着迪María的回归，帕夫利迪斯状态极佳，中场三人组奥斯内斯、弗洛伦蒂诺和Kökçü的控制，本菲卡应该能够控制比赛的长时间。考虑到他们在欧洲的客场表现——最近5场欧冠客场4胜——我希望他们至少能避免失败。

一场势均力敌的比赛很可能会到来，摩纳哥确实有竞争力，但他们目前的状态和防守问题给了本菲卡明显的优势。我认为这场比赛不是平局就是本菲卡的另一场胜利，为他们在里斯本的返程做好准备。

横滨游艇-上海

横滨F.马里诺斯是亚冠东部最好的进攻球队，我完全期待他们在战胜上海申花后继续他们的统治地位。他们只需要一分就能确保进入16强，但以他们的火力和主场状态，我认为他们不会满足于一场平局。他们在6场比赛中打进20球，在主场，他们势不可挡——3场胜利，打进11球，零失球。这是冠军争夺者的形式。

另一方面，上海申花却勉强撑了下来。他们在这次比赛中只赢过两次，而且都是在主场赢的。其中一次是对阵浦项的幸运逆转，另一次是对阵川崎，他们在85分钟内以一人优势比赛。他们的客场表现令人担忧——两负一平，包括输给光州。面对比赛中最危险的攻击，在横滨已经完美的体育场？这对他们来说是一场噩梦。

安德森·洛佩斯是一个值得关注的人。他在比赛中已经进了6个球，他在任何方面都是致命的——在禁区内，禁区外，转换中，以及定位球。他有两名优秀的边锋埃尔伯和扬·马修斯的支持，他们可以突破防守并制造超载。边后卫松原健（Ken Matsubara）和长门克也（Katsuya Nagato）喜欢向前推进，增加了更多的宽度，使横滨的进攻更加难以控制。这是一支毫不留情地进攻的球队，鉴于上海的防守弱点，他们将很难保持安静。

上海唯一真正的威胁是andrer<s:1> Luís。他是一名久经考验的射手，在联赛中打进4球，上赛季在中甲打进17球。但他没有得到足够的支持。在吴曦和谢鹏飞的带领下，他们的中场将试图发动反击，但他们没有足够的速度和流动性来快速过渡。前阿森纳青年球员李科可能会帮助防守，但阻止横滨的进攻机器

上港的防守不够强大，无法应对马里诺斯的跑动，他们的进攻在本届杯赛中排名第二，只有9个进球。这与横滨的20倍形成了巨大的对比，我不认为上海能跟上。他们可能会坐得很深，试图挫败主队，但一旦横滨找到了突破口，情况可能会变得很糟糕。

马里诺斯也加强了他们的阵容，增加了哥伦比亚的Quiñones和梅赫伦的桑迪沃尔什，使他们的后防线更加稳固。与此同时，上海上海队的变动很小，他们唯一值得注意的签约是来自巴塞罗那的米内罗。这不足以弥补质量上的差距。

一切都表明我们会在主场轻松取胜。横滨有最好的进攻，最好的主场战绩，和势头，而上海在客场挣扎，缺乏火力。我看到了三色旗的统治性表现，可能是一场多球的胜利。