Real Sociedad is undoubtedly my favorite here.

Both teams played over the weekend, with Osasuna securing a 2-1 victory. However, that win was largely due to their extreme efficiency, home advantage, and a lackluster performance from Real Sociedad. Despite that, the hosts are the far superior team in this matchup.

The key reason to back Real Sociedad is the reaction I expect from them. They’ve lost four of their last five games, with their only win coming in an easy Europa League match against PAOK. This kind of run is highly unusual for a team of their quality. They have a well-structured tactical setup and plenty of individual talent, but recent performances haven’t reflected their true potential. That being said, I see them bouncing back strongly, especially in a tournament where they have a genuine chance to go deep.

Osasuna, on the other hand, reinforces my confidence in this pick. They are a completely different team at home and away. While they are one of the best home sides in the league (4th best), their away record is extremely poor—just one win in ten league games. And there’s a clear reason behind this.

Osasuna’s coach sets up the team with a highly defensive approach, but at home, he can’t afford to use this system due to the club’s history and identity. El Sadar has always been a fortress built on intensity and high pressing. However, away from home, Osasuna play extremely defensively, often sitting deep with little attacking intent. This is evident in their poor away goal tally—just six goals in ten matches—and the fact that they frequently finish games with only one or two shots on target.

In the previous round, they pulled off an impressive 2-3 win over Athletic Club (the current cup holders), but that was an uncharacteristically chaotic game for them. I don’t see that happening again here, especially against a more disciplined and tactically superior opponent like Real Sociedad.

I fully expect Real Sociedad to dominate possession, control the tempo, and keep a clean sheet. Osasuna will likely sit deep and wait for counter-attacking opportunities, but they lack the pace and precision to truly threaten a well-organized side like Real Sociedad. Given the lesson from the weekend defeat, I trust that the hosts will adjust and find a way to break down Osasuna’s deep block.

Another crucial factor is squad depth, which plays a big role in midweek fixtures. Real Sociedad is built for European competition, meaning they have the squad depth to rotate while maintaining quality. Osasuna, in contrast, has a much thinner squad, with only 13-14 reliable first-team players. Their coach has already hinted at rotations, which makes sense given their fatigue and lack of experience handling midweek fixtures. This further tilts the balance in Real Sociedad’s favor.

With better quality, greater squad depth, and superior game control, everything points toward a home win. I don’t see Osasuna being able to threaten much, and Real Sociedad should have enough to secure a victory.

皇马无疑是我最喜欢的球队。

两支球队都在周末进行了比赛，奥萨苏纳以2比1获胜。然而，这场胜利很大程度上要归功于他们极高的效率、主场优势和皇家社会的平淡表现。尽管如此，东道主在这场比赛中仍然遥遥领先。

支持皇家社会的关键原因是我期待他们的反应。他们在最近的五场比赛中输掉了四场，唯一一场胜利是在对阵PAOK的欧联杯比赛中。这样的成绩对于他们这样的球队来说是极不寻常的。他们有良好的战术结构和大量的个人天赋，但最近的表现并没有反映出他们真正的潜力。话虽如此，我认为他们会强势反弹，尤其是在他们真正有机会深入的比赛中。

另一方面，奥萨苏纳增强了我对这次选择的信心。他们在主场和客场是完全不同的球队。虽然他们是联赛中最好的主队之一（排名第四），但他们的客场战绩却非常糟糕——10场联赛中只有1场胜利。这背后有一个明确的原因。

奥萨苏纳的教练用高度防守的方式来组建球队，但在主场，由于俱乐部的历史和身份，他不能使用这种体系。埃尔萨达尔一直是一座建立在强度和高压上的堡垒。然而，在客场，奥萨苏纳打得非常防守，经常坐在后腰，几乎没有进攻意图。这可以从他们糟糕的客场进球数上看出来——10场比赛中只有6个进球——而且他们经常在比赛结束时只射正一两次。

在上一轮比赛中，他们以2-3大胜竞技俱乐部（目前的冠军得主），但这对他们来说是一场异常混乱的比赛。我不会再看到这样的事情发生了，尤其是面对像皇家社会这样纪律严明、战术优越的对手。

我完全希望皇家社会能控制控球，控制节奏，保持零失球。奥萨苏纳可能会坐以待发，等待反击的机会，但他们缺乏速度和精确度，无法真正威胁到像皇家社会这样组织良好的球队。从周末的失败中吸取教训，我相信东道主会调整并找到一种方法来打破奥萨苏纳的深度封锁。

另一个关键因素是阵容深度，这在周中比赛中起着重要作用。皇家社会是为欧洲比赛而建立的，这意味着他们在保持质量的同时有足够的阵容深度来轮换。相比之下，奥萨苏纳的阵容要薄得多，只有13-14名可靠的一线队球员。他们的教练已经暗示了轮换，考虑到他们的疲劳和缺乏处理周中赛程的经验，这是有道理的。这进一步使天平向皇家社会倾斜。

更好的质量，更大的阵容深度，和优越的比赛控制，一切都指向一个主场胜利。我不认为奥萨苏纳有多大的威胁，皇家社会应该有足够的力量来确保胜利。