There are 10 points difference in the actual Serie A table between the 1st and 6th team, but in the underlying xG-data the top-6 is practically extremely even this season. Roma belongs to the top Lazio not quite. Lazio are 8th, they could be as low as 10 with only 22 points, so we can assume that they have been one of the luckiest and overperforming teams in Serie A, still they are a lot behind Roma in all meaningful statistics.

The last 7 results with xG-numbers below.

Lazio:

Roma:

This sample of form confirms well the overall situation. Lazio have won last two, but the opponents were weak, the only really respectable result on this run is the home win over Napoli. Even in that match they lost all other key data except the most important, the goals!

Roma have played well throughout the season, in this 7-match run there is a loss vs superb Atalanta side, and last round in the top game they needed some luck to draw with Inter after scoring twice from low goal expectation shots.

Looking more closely into the xG-data about the situation of when the goals come in their matches we can spot the biggest differences. Lazio are 19-17 in goal difference of all goals, the xG shows that even that is a bit flattering. It means they have not been any better than their opponents in general. From the corners Lazio have scored one, conceded 5! A lot to improve in that department.

Roma on the other hand are 27-16 from open play goals, the xG suggests there should be goal difference of +17! Roma have also scored 5 goals from corners so far and it is another thing to think about for Lazio coach Inzaghi. He has to be careful with transitions, slow attacks and set pieces at the same time!

Lazio have met the other 5 of the top 6 teams with a 1-2-2 saldo.

Roma has played 6 games vs the teams and class of Lazio which are between 7th and 13th in the table with 4-2-0 and 13-3 goal difference! Both draws were 0-0, and Roma won the goal expectation greatly in both. (Sassuolo and Verona)

The big difference is that Roma create huge amounts of goal chances and also have several different goal scorers Mkhitaryan, Veretout, Dzeko and recently improving Borja Mayoral - they have 25 goals to their name, and for example full-back Karsdorp has been a surprise in providing key passes!

At Lazio Ciro Immobili has been too important with his 11 goals, and what is worse is that he is unlikely to keep that pace. Caicedo has 6 goals, behind him there are basically only unlikely goal scorers.

No extreme key absentees at either side, Lazio miss keeper Strakosha,midfielders Lulic, Fares and Correa. Roma are without keeper Mirante and attacking player Pedro along with a few non-important ones.

In the recent history Lazio have done in these derbies, but I like to look at current form and class and Roma should come on top.

0-2, Dzeko is used to decide matches like this.

Expected lineups:

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

意甲第1名和第6名之间有10分的差距，但是根据xg数据，本赛季排名前6的球队几乎是势均力敌。罗马不完全属于顶级的拉齐奥。拉齐奥现在排名第八，他们可能只需要22分就能排到10分，所以我们可以认为他们是意甲中最幸运的球队之一，并且表现出色，但是他们仍然在所有有意义的数据上远远落后于罗马。

表格的样本很好地证实了整个情况。拉齐奥赢得了上两场比赛，但是对手很弱，唯一值得尊敬的结果是主场战胜那不勒斯。即使在那场比赛中，除了最重要的进球，他们失去了所有其他关键数据!

罗马在整个赛季都踢得很好，在这7场比赛中他们输给了一流的亚特兰大，而在上一轮的顶级比赛中，他们需要一些运气才能和国际米兰打成平手，因为他们的进球期望值很低。

更仔细地看一下xg的数据，当进球出现在他们的比赛中，我们可以发现最大的不同。拉齐奥的净胜球数是19-17,xG显示，即使是这样也有点让人高兴。这意味着他们并没有比他们的对手更好。拉齐奥在角球中进了一球，丢了5球!那方面还有很多需要改进的地方。

另一方面，罗马有27-16个公开比赛的进球，xG建议应该有+17个进球差!罗马到目前为止也在角球中打入了5个进球，这是拉齐奥教练因扎吉需要考虑的另一件事。他必须小心转换，慢攻和定位球的同时!

拉齐奥已经用1-2-2的阵型与6强中的另外5支球队交手。

罗马已经和拉齐奥打了6场比赛，拉齐奥在积分榜上排名第七到第十三，净胜球数分别是4-2-2 0和13-3 !两场平局都是0-0，罗马在两场比赛中都赢得了进球的期望。(Sassuolo和维罗纳)

最大的区别是罗马创造了大量的进球机会，同时也有几个不同的进球者，姆希塔利安，韦列特，哲科和最近进步的博尔哈市长，他们有25个进球，比如边后卫卡尔斯多普在提供关键传球方面是一个惊喜!

在拉齐奥，西罗·因莫里的11个进球对他来说太重要了，更糟糕的是他不太可能保持这个速度。凯塞多进了6个球，在他身后基本上只有不太可能进球的人。

双方都没有严重的缺阵，拉齐奥的守门员斯特拉科沙，中场球员吕利克，法里斯和科雷亚。罗马缺少了守门员米兰特和攻击型球员佩德罗以及一些不重要的球员。

在最近的历史上拉齐奥在这些德比中取得的成绩，但是我喜欢看现在的状态和等级，罗马应该会位居榜首。

0-2，哲科被用来决定这样的比赛。