Cadiz host Atletico Madrid at Estadio Nuevo Mirandillafor this Spanish La Liga Round 15 clash. It probably will not be the most entertaining match but is very interesting betting-wise. Let's take a closer look..

Cadiz pretty often choose a pretty cautious strategy especially as clear underdogs and their defense is definitely better than the number of goals allowed - 23 - indicates. Indeed, based on expected goals allowed the number should be 20. Cadiz have also been unlucky in La Liga this season in terms of expected points whereas Atletico Madrid have been lucky. I have written about Atletico Madrid many times in previous analyses in recent months sometimes betting on them and sometimes going against them but they key message I have had and still have is that they are not as good as last season.. They probably will not win the championship (again) this season.. Their defense is not as good as it has been in recent years. They have allowed less goals than they should have and scored more than they should in terms of expected goals. As a result they seem to be over-valued on the betting market once again against a clearly smaller team. The 1.5 goals handicap is big for an away match - too big and the hosts have a good chance to avoid losing by more than one goal! Tico were pretty lame on Wednesday as clear favorites in The Champions League versus Milan and lost 0-1 at home. Not an ideal preparation for this away match for sure. They can improve and are clear favorites to win but winning by at least two goals' difference is not easy in any match, for any team away from home in this league! 

Cadiz are indeed under-valued at the moment by the betting market. They would have earned more points as stated above and I also see them having potential to improve overall! I rate them clearly better than the 12 points they have scored and their current position would indicate. In my power ratings they are in fact the 13th best team in this league and pretty rarely suffer clear defeats, especially at home. They have good fans and fight hard and seem to have a great team spirit! They definitely play better than the list of players would indicate. They have no super stars which seems to lead the betting market to under-estimate them in most of their matches..

To sum up, the hosts +1.5 goals handicap is a solid choice, with around 70% chance of winning for my growing fan-base here!