In my opinion Sport Recife have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

It's a extremely important match for the league table. Both teams are in relegation zone, but hosts are 6 points behind Bahia. It's very important match for them.

Sport Recife don't have any new absences, their line up should look exactly the same like in previous + talented Gustavo (back from suspension). Good info for the team, this youngster have big potential and a lot of European clubs asking about him . On the other hand Bahia have two new absences in comparison to the previous match-key left defender Bahia and important winger Rossi are suspended for today's match. It's a blow for the team as both of them played in last round match.

Sport Recife is in very hard situation, but they not played that bad, especially in home matches. So many times in current season they had big unluck. Numbers not lying. They played 16 home matches and they scored only 10 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 22.02(!). It's huge difference. Defensive formation at home looks solid at they conceded only 11 goals so far. In last round Recife played on away against solid Ceara. They lost 1:2 by late goal, but they played very well: expected goals scored for Recife 2.20, for Ceara 1.05. If they will continue to play on this level today, they have strong chances to make good result.

Bahia coming for this match after poor 0:3 loss on away against Flamengo (expected goals scored for Flamengo 2.50, for Bahia only 0.20). They have serious problems with defending on the road-only 2 teams from whole league conceded more goals in away matches than Bahia (24 goals in 16 away matches). In overall Bahia is very poor on away in Serie A standards-they won only 16 of last 92(!!!) away league matches.

Hosts are able to score at least one goal today and avoid loss here. AH +0 looks like very solid bet here. For me Recife at home have much bigger chances for good result than Bahia.

在我看来，累西腓在今天的比赛中有很好的机会至少得一分。

这是一场对积分榜至关重要的比赛。两支球队都处于降级区，但东道主落后巴伊亚6分。对他们来说这是非常重要的比赛。

累西腓没有新的缺阵，他们的阵容应该和之前的古斯塔沃(禁赛归来)一模一样。这对球队来说是个好消息，这名年轻球员有很大的潜力，很多欧洲俱乐部都在询问他。另一方面，巴伊亚与前一场关键的左后卫巴伊亚相比又有两次缺席，重要的边锋罗西也将在今天的比赛中停赛。这对球队来说是个打击，因为他们两人都参加了上一轮的比赛。

累西腓的处境非常艰难，但他们踢得还不错，尤其是在主场比赛中。在这个赛季，他们遭遇了太多的不幸。数字不会说谎。他们打了16场主场比赛，只进了10个球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该进22.02(!)这是巨大的差异。到目前为止，他们只丢了11个球，主场的防守看起来很稳固。在上一轮里，累西腓客场对阵实力派塞阿拉。他们以1:2的比分输掉了比赛，但他们踢得很好:累西腓的进球是2.20，塞阿拉的进球是1.05。如果他们今天继续在这个水平上比赛，他们有很大的机会取得好成绩。

巴伊亚队在客场0:3负于弗拉门戈队(弗拉门戈队的预期进球为2.50，巴伊亚队只有0.20)后来到了本场比赛。他们在客场的防守上有严重的问题，全联盟只有两支球队客场的失球比巴伊亚多(16场客场比赛24球)。总的来说，巴伊亚队在意甲的客场表现很差——他们在过去的92场客场比赛中只赢了16场。

东道主今天至少能进一个球，避免输掉比赛。主队不败看起来很可靠。对我来说，主场累西腓比巴伊亚有更大的机会取得好成绩。