Montenegro vs Turkey

Montenegro host Turkey for this final FIFA World Cup 2022 qualification group match at Podgorica City Stadium. Montenegro have already lost any chance of qualifying for the World Cup in Qatar but for Turkey the stakes are extremely high! Let's take a closer look..

Indeed, going into early Wednesday's Beijing time final round of matches Turkey are in an intense battle for the first position in this group with Netherlands and Norway. The Dutch are the current group leaders with 20 points - both Norway and Turkey have 18 points. One of the three will fail to even make it to the extra play offs rounds organized next year for the teams who have finished second after the group stage. To make it extra interesting Netherlands and Norway play today at the same time as this match takes place. Turkey might finish second even if they lose this match - if Norway also loses. However, by winning they could win the group and qualify directly to the World Cup!

I think the extra motivation factor has not been giving enough emphasis on in the betting market and there is in fact long-term historical data that when only one team has super-high motivation the probability of them winning can increase by over 10%..Today we have this kind of a situation! Most importantly though, I see Turkey as clearly the better team here by raw class. Especially at taking a look at players' individual skill level they are superior compared to the hosts. I must say I, along with many football experts and even the betting market, expected a lot more than they were able to do on the pitch from Turkey last summer in EURO 2020. The potential was and still is there though! Also, their group was not an easy one - Italy, the eventual Champions crushed them in Rome in the tournament opener and Switzerland turned out to be a surprisingly good team too - even beating World Champions France in the play offs! Wales were a decent team too. Yes, Turkey did not meet the expectations but as a result seem still to be under-valued in the betting market. They also lost to Netherlands 1-6 away from home and were pretty much dominated by the skilled Dutch. It was indeed an awful performance from the Turks but Netherlands were also on fire in that a match a few months ago and it was still just one match.. Overall Turkey have played well in this group and in fact the loss to Netherlands is their only defeat so far! They have good 25:15 goal difference.

Montenegro are not by any means a bad team and even surprisingly forced Netherlands into a 2-2 draw three days ago after being 0-2 down and played okay but still I would say it was more a result of the Dutch not having 100% concentration and professional attitude than the hosts being very good.. The visitors did have 69% ball possession and were clearly the better team and really should have won. This surprise draw seems to have led to some over-valuation in the betting market for this match. Turkey and Montenegro played a 2-2 draw in their most recent meeting in September but the visitors were lucky to go home with a point as Turkey had 59% ball possession and clearly more scoring attempts.

To sum up, motivated Turks have a very good chance to win here. Turkey -0.5 goals handicap is my pick to extend my hot streak and great record in FIFA World Cup qualifying matches!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

黑山将在波德戈里察城市体育场举办2022年世界杯预选赛的最后一场比赛。黑山共和国已经失去了参加卡塔尔世界杯的所有机会，但对土耳其来说，赌注是非常高的!让我们仔细看看…

的确，在北京时间周三凌晨的最后一轮比赛中，土耳其将与荷兰和挪威争夺小组第一的位置。荷兰队目前以20分领跑小组，挪威和土耳其都是18分。这三支球队中的一支将无法进入明年为小组赛后获得第二名的球队组织的附加赛。更有趣的是，今天荷兰队和挪威队同时进行比赛。即使土耳其队输掉这场比赛，如果挪威也输掉的话，他们也有可能排在第二。然而，如果他们赢了，他们就可以赢得小组，直接晋级世界杯!

我认为额外的激励因素在博彩市场上还没有得到足够的重视，事实上，有长期的历史数据表明，当只有一支球队有超高的激励时，他们获胜的概率可以增加10%以上。今天我们就遇到了这种情况!最重要的是，我认为土耳其显然是这里最好的球队。特别是在球员的个人技术水平上，他们比东道主优越。我必须说，我和许多足球专家，甚至博彩市场，期望比他们在去年夏天的2020年欧洲杯上能做的多得多。但潜力是存在的!同样，他们所在的小组也不容易——最终的冠军意大利在罗马的揭幕战中击败了他们，瑞士也出人意料地成为了一支优秀的球队——甚至在附加赛中击败了世界冠军法国!威尔士也是一支不错的球队。是的，土耳其没有达到预期，但因此在博彩市场上似乎仍然被低估。他们也在客场以1比6输给了荷兰队，而且几乎被技术精湛的荷兰队统治了。土耳其的表现确实很糟糕，但几个月前荷兰队也在那场比赛中表现得很出色，但这仍然只是一场比赛。总的来说，土耳其在这个小组表现很好，事实上输给荷兰是他们迄今为止唯一的失败!他们的净胜球差是25:15。

黑山无论如何不是一个糟糕的团队,甚至意外迫使荷兰2 - 2 0 - 2下来后三天前打好了但是我想说的是,由于荷兰没有100%浓度和专业的态度比主机非常好. .客队确实有69%的控球率，显然是更好的球队，真的应该赢。这场意外的平局似乎导致了博彩市场对这场比赛的高估。土耳其和黑山在9月份的最近一次交锋中打成2比2平，但客队很幸运地得到了一分，因为土耳其的控球率为59%，射门次数明显更多。

总而言之，积极的土耳其人很有可能在这里获胜。土耳其-0.5球的障碍是我的选择，以延长我在世界杯预选赛中的连胜和伟大记录!