This is a very large handicap for a national team, but there are several reasons to back Switzerland here.

Switzerland needs a victory by a big margin here to avoid the playoffs. They have the same points as Italy, but their goal difference is +9 while Italy has +11. So they need to win and score more goals than Italy today.

They have a good squad. Played a defensive match against Italy (where they drew 1:1) but today will have the control of the ball and the most important: the motivation to win and the mentality “we need to score as many goals as possible”.

Bulgaria is the main reason for this pick. They have no motivation, and are already without chances to qualify. But the most important is their recent performances. If we look at the results, they drew 1:1 vs Ukraine last week or achieved another important draw vs Italy (1:1). But both draws were a total anomaly: Italy made 27 shots and Ukraine +30. In normal conditions, that matches should have been +3 goals win for the home side.

Today Switzerland need a victory by a big margin, so most probably will have again 20 or 30 attempts as all strong teams made against Bulgaria recently. Luck isn’t forever, Bulgaria’s goalkeeper can’t be the man of the match and make such an amount of saves everyday.

This should be easy for the hosts, I hope they can achieve the important victory they need to qualify. Switzerland have some missings such as Xhaka or Seferovic, but they have a deep and experienced squad with players in several top teams in Europe. Bulgaria has a very weak squad, today will miss some regulars (Vasil Bozhikov, Spas Delev, Kristiyan Malinov, Anton Nedyalkov) and they don't have any player from a top european league.

In the previous game Switzerland won 1:3 thanks to three goals in the first 12 minutes. Then played at 50% to control the match. If they do the same today with the whole game at 100%, they should be able to achieve a victory by at least 3-4 goals difference.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

这让球指数对一支国家队来说确实是很大，但有几个理由支持瑞士。

瑞士需要一场大比分的胜利才能避免进入季后赛。他们的得分和意大利一样，但是他们的净胜球是+9，而意大利是+11。所以他们需要赢球，并比意大利今天进更多的球。

他们有一支很好的队伍。和意大利打了一场防守比赛(1:1战平)，但今天我们将掌握控球权，以及最重要的:获胜的动力和“我们需要尽可能多的进球”的心态。

保加利亚是被选中的主要原因。他们没有动力，已经没有机会获得资格。但最重要的是他们最近的表现。如果我们看一下结果，他们上周和乌克兰1:1战平，或者是和意大利1:1战平。但两场平局完全是反常的:意大利进了27球，乌克兰进了30球。在正常情况下，这场比赛应该是主队进+3球。

今天瑞士队需要一场大比分的胜利，所以很可能会有20或30次尝试，就像最近所有强队对保加利亚的比赛一样。运气不是永远的，保加利亚的门将不可能每天都做出这么多的扑救。

这对东道主来说应该很容易，我希望他们能取得晋级所需的重要胜利。瑞士有一些像沙卡和塞费罗维奇这样的缺阵，但是他们有一支深度和经验丰富的球队，他们的球员来自欧洲的几支顶级球队。保加利亚的阵容非常弱，今天将会错过一些常规球员(瓦西里·博日科夫，斯帕斯·德列夫，克里斯蒂安·马里诺夫，安东·内迪亚尔科夫)，他们没有任何来自欧洲顶级联赛的球员。

在上一场比赛中，瑞士队在开场12分钟就进了3球，以1比3获胜。然后按50%来控制比赛。如果他们在今天的比赛中也能做到这一点，那么他们应该能够以至少3-4个进球的差距获得胜利。