England host Albania at the legendary Wembley Stadium in London for this FIFA World Cup 2022 in Qatar qualification clash with extremely high stakes. Rather surprisingly both teams have a chance to qualify for the biggest sports event in the World! Well, in fact England are a very probable group winners and would, as a result, qualify for the tournament directly. England are undoubtedly heavy - around 80% favorites - to win this match but I see believe Albania have very good chance to cover the handicap of +2.5 goals. It is a heavy handicap indeed taking into account that Albania are not a bad team at all. Let's take a closer look..

We all remember how close England came to winning the EURO 2020 Championship in July at this very stadium in front of an amazing crowd. They dominated the first half but Italy's amazingly good team play and England becoming too cautious  and defensive allowed the Italians the equalize it (1-1) and grab the win through nerve-wreaking penalties -  breaking the hearts of millions of English fans. However, I would not say England are overall heavily over-valued in international football in the betting market anymore as they are as seriously good team when their best players are in top-shape and are, not favorites, but still one of the possible Champions in Qatar. next year. The pick is mainly based on Albania being clearly under-valued - once again! We for example easily won a pick on them a few months ago versus Hungary - they won 1-0 at home.  And I have profited betting on them many times before too! Yes, Albania have not achieved major success in international football and probably never will, but they have been on the rise over the past ten years! They for example qualified for the EURO 2016 - when there were less countries in the tournament  than this year - and even beat Romania and were narrowly defeated by Switzerland and put up a respectable fight against mighty France and allowed the first goal only in the 90th minute when the elite striker Antoine Griezmann netted the ball. They are a small and poor country, probably the poorest in Europe, and do not get a lot of media attention. They also do not have any good clubs by European standards. These are likely some of the factors explaining the under-valuation. They also play better as a team than the list of players would indicate and are very patriotic.

History aside, Albania have played seriously well in the group matches so far even beating Hungary also in Budapest - a difficult place for visitors.. Albania even created more scoring chances in this match  - nine whereas Hungary had six. Let's remember Hungary played well in the EURO taking a draw versus both Germany and France and were only broken at the dying late in the second half versus Portugal! In their most recent match they lost to Poland at home 0-1 but the match was a balanced one and the hosts could have won. England, on the other hand, played a disappointing 1-1 draw versus Hungary at home about a month ago. Yes, they would have deserved to win but just could not score more than one goal. Word-class striker Harry Kane, one of the heroes last summer in EURO 2020, is still, as mentioned in past analyses, far from his best which is a concern for England.. They pretty rarely are able to crush decent football countries by several goals' difference and I believe Albania will put up a huge, defensive fight tonight as the World Cup ticket would be a dream come true for them! Yes, England did crush Ukraine, who totally ran out of energy, 4-0 in EURO 2020 and also Hungary 4-0 in this qualification group but in terms of expected goals these wins were far too clear!

To sum up, +2.5 goals is too much when both countries are serious football countries. I estimate over 70% for Albania to cover the handicap! Good luck to all my fans!