Class is one major element in deciding who wins the game, but during these covid-seasons where the home advantage has vanished, but amount of games has increased then fatigue has become even more important at times!

Sevilla played on Saturday an exhausting top game vs Real Sociedad, Atletico Madrid got a rare day off because their match vs Bilbao got postponed because of the snow storm. Today it will be cold in Madrid, but no snow predicted.

Atletico lead the table, and very deservedly so as they even have 3 games in hand. Looking at the xG they should be actually equal with Barcelona at about xPts per game pace. Everyone is badmouthing Barcelona and praising Atleti.. strange this analytics side of football!

Atletico last 7 games with results and xG-numbers

However one can not notice the superb defense of Simeone’s Atleti! They have conceded 6 goals in 15 games so far, and even if the xG-data shows that the number should be 12 the eyes say differently, as there is always someone clearing the shot on the goal line, usually league’s best keeper Jan Oblak. You do not usually fear that they would concede, do you? And another thing, even if they had conceded those 12 goals it still would be the smallest amount in La Liga!

In the previous years Simeone did like to win by 1-0, this season with Joao Felix and Luis Suarez upfront it is not as likely anymore, but they have shown this stubborness not to attack in a few games recently, vs Alaves, Getafe and Valencia.

Tonight they would be very happy with that result!

In the cup Atletico lost to 2B side Cornella which is partly a shock, partly a blessing as they have fewer matches to worry about in the title race. As I struggle to understand how it happened I have to wonder if Simeone did let that happen on purpose, even if the lineup was good as such.

In the last 7 games both have lost to Real Madrid, otherwise both are having a strong season in La Liga.

Sevilla last 7 games results and xG

Also Sevilla are defensively very solid, they are 2nd best in both actual and xG-numbers, but the big difference is their lack of quality strikers. Despite the hat trick last Saturday I do not count En-nesyri as such. He just had a crazy day. Ocampos is always useful but not a top finished, and Luuk de Jong has always surprised me when he is on the pitch as he is very one dimensional guy. Yet Sociedad and Betis have created more than 3 xG in last two games and that is very worrying!

It is no wonder they have scored only 21 goals so far, which is 1only 0th best in La Liga. Same with Bilbao, less than Celta or Levante.

In the match vs Sociedad there were also a few horrible mistakes, an own goal was just the icing of the cake, but at Wanda Metropolitano they can not afford such errors. At times the tricks of Lopetegui work miracles like when they completely played Villarreal’s defensive midfielder off the pitch with a pressing game plan, now they can not even know for sure who they are facing in the midfield. Llorente, Lamar, Koké?

Sevilla coach Lopetegui will have a tough decision to make with the lineup. The best possible ones are not rested enough, and over the weekend they will also have to face Leganes in the cup.

One more positive thing for Atletico is return of Kieran Trippier from the UEFA ban, and whoever they will face on the right flank will have a busy day!

Despite both teams being defensive monsters I have a feeling this might be more entertaining and attacking this time, injuries at least are not destroying either team.

The weather by the way also supports the hosts. One might not think about it if you are not living in Spain, but for Madrid the cold winters are normal, in Sevilla there are usually 20 Celsius at this point. Another Sevilla-based player Canales (Betis) said that he has never felt so cold than last night away at Huesca!

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本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

等级是决定谁赢得比赛的一个主要因素，但在这些新冠季节，主场优势已经消失，但游戏数量增加，然后疲劳变得更加重要的时候!

塞维利亚在周六与皇家社会的一场令人筋疲力尽的比赛中，马德里竞技因为他们与毕尔巴鄂的比赛因为暴风雪而被推迟了一天。今天马德里会很冷，但不会下雪。

马竞在积分榜上遥遥领先，这是他们应得的，因为他们甚至还差3场比赛。看看xG，他们的场均得分应该和巴塞罗那差不多。每个人都在说巴塞罗那的坏话，称赞马竞…奇怪的是足球的这种分析的一面!

马竞最近7场比赛的成绩和战绩

然而，人们没有注意到西蒙尼的马竞的高超防守!到目前为止，他们已经在15场比赛中丢了6个球，即使xg数据显示数字应该是12，但眼睛说的却不一样，因为总有人在球门线上射门，通常是联盟最好的守门员扬·奥布拉克。你通常不会担心他们会让步吧?还有一件事，即使他们丢了这12个球，这仍然是西甲联赛中最少的进球!

在过去的几年里，西莫尼确实希望以1-0取胜，但本赛季由于若昂·费利克斯和路易斯·苏亚雷斯的锋线优势，这已经不太可能了，但他们在最近的几场比赛中表现出了这种不进攻的固执，对阿拉维斯、赫塔费和瓦伦西亚。

今晚他们会对这个结果非常满意!

在杯赛中，马竞输给了对手科内拉，这在一定程度上是令人震惊的，在一定程度上是一种祝福，因为他们在冠军争夺中有更少的比赛需要担心。当我挣扎着去理解它是如何发生的时候，我不得不怀疑西蒙尼是不是故意让它发生的，即使阵容很好。

在过去的7场比赛中，他们都输给了皇家马德里，除此之外，他们都在西甲有一个强大的赛季。

塞维利亚最近7场比赛的结果

塞维利亚的防守也很稳固，他们在实际和xg数量上都是第二好的，但最大的区别是他们缺乏高质量的前锋。尽管上周六上演了帽子戏法，但我并不认为安内西里就是这样的球员。他刚刚度过了疯狂的一天。奥坎波斯总是有用的，但不是一个顶级球员，卢克德容总是让我惊讶，当他在球场上的时候，他是一个非常单一的家伙。然而Sociedad和Betis在过去两场比赛中创造了超过3个xG，这是非常令人担忧的!

难怪到目前为止他们只进了21球，在西甲联赛中排名第1。毕尔巴鄂也是一样，比塞尔塔或莱万特要少。

在对Sociedad的比赛中也有一些可怕的错误，一个乌龙球只是蛋糕上的糖衣，但是对于万达大都会他们不能承受这样的错误。有时洛佩特吉的技巧会创造奇迹，比如他们在球场外用一个紧迫的比赛计划完全击败了比利亚雷亚尔的防守中场，现在他们甚至不能确定他们在中场面对的是谁。略伦特,拉马尔,Koke

塞维利亚主教练洛佩特吉将会在阵容上做出一个艰难的决定。最好的球员没有得到足够的休息，周末他们还将在杯赛中面对莱加内斯。

对马竞来说，一个更积极的事情是特里皮耶从欧足联禁赛中回来，无论他们在右翼面对谁，都将有一个忙碌的一天!

尽管两支球队都是防守怪兽，但我觉得这次可能会更有趣更有攻击力，至少伤病不会摧毁任何一支球队。

顺便说一下，天气也支持主办方。如果你不是住在西班牙，你可能不会想到这一点，但对于马德里来说，寒冷的冬天是正常的，塞维利亚的冬天通常是20摄氏度。另一名塞维利亚球员卡纳雷斯(贝蒂斯)说他从来没有像昨晚在韦斯卡那样感到如此寒冷!

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