Ceara vs Cuiaba

Ceara host Cuiba at Castelão for this Brazilian Serie A match early Monday morning Beijing time. It is the 31st match for both teams and a very interesting one - especially betting-wise. I think the standings do not fully reflect the current level of the teams and I see the hosts having an over 50% chance of winning. Let's take a closer look..

Indeed, Cuiaba are currently in 9th place with 39 points in the bank whereas the hosts are in 14th place but only a couple of points behind Cuiaba. However, at the moment I rate the hosts as slightly the better team in my power ratings that illustrated the teams' class. Ceara have been a little unlucky in many matches today and certainly also have potential for better performances. A good good example of being unlucky was the match versus a very good team Palmeiras - 2nd in the standings - on the 20th of October at home. They lost 1-2 but created more scoring chances than the visitors and also recorded slightly more dangerous attacks and attacks overall. I liked they way they played very much. They would have deserved at least a draw. If they can repeat this kind of performance today they have good chance to take all three points! They should be a little more effective in offense to climb up the standings. They of course do not have the best strikers in this league but still good enough ones for sure. The hosts' midfielders should also be able to offer a bit better-quality passes for the strikers. I am, as mentioned above, hopeful they have room for improvement. Ceara have a good home crowd and have been pretty strong home team. They have lost just one of the latest ten matches at their stadium.

Cuaiba, on the other hand, have had some luck on their side in many matches this season resulting in them being slightly over-rated in the betting. In their most recent match they played a very disappointing 0-0 draw at home versus the rock-bottom and very lousy team Chapecoense-SC showing pretty lame offensive football. They were slightly better as a whole with some 55% ball possession and creating more scoring chances but only recorded three shots on goal. I do realize they can improve and in a good day they can even win this match but the hosts are solid favorites.

To sum up, the hosts have some 53% chance to win this one. Ceara -0.5 goals handicap is my pick here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周一凌晨，西阿拉在Castelão主场迎战库巴。这是两支球队的第31场比赛，非常有趣——尤其是博彩方面。我认为排名并没有完全反映出球队目前的水平，我认为东道主有超过50%的获胜机会。让我们仔细看看…

的确，库亚巴目前以39分排在第九位，而东道主排在第14位，但只落后库亚巴几分。然而，在我的能力评价中，我认为东道主稍微好一些，这说明了球队的级别。塞阿拉在今天的许多比赛中都有些不走运，当然他也有可能有更好的表现。不幸的一个很好的例子是10月20日在主场对阵一支非常好的球队——排名第二的帕尔梅拉斯。他们1-2输掉了比赛，但是创造了比客队更多的得分机会，而且他们的进攻和进攻都略显危险。我非常喜欢他们打球的方式。他们至少应该得到一场平局。如果他们今天能重复这种表现，他们就有很好的机会拿到全部三分!他们应该在进攻上更有效一点，以爬上积分榜。他们当然没有这个联赛中最好的前锋，但仍然有足够的前锋。主队的中场也应该能够为前锋提供一些质量更好的传球。如上所述，我希望他们还有改进的空间。西阿拉有一个很好的主场观众，一直是相当强大的主队。在最近的十场比赛中，他们只输了一场。

另一方面，在本赛季的许多比赛中，翠巴运气不错，导致他们在投注中被略微高估。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场0-0打了一场非常令人失望的平局，对阵的是垫底的、非常糟糕的沙佩科恩斯- sc队，他们的进攻非常弱。他们整体上表现稍好，控球率约为55%，创造了更多得分机会，但只有三次射正。我确实知道他们可以进步，在好的日子里他们甚至可以赢得这场比赛，但东道主是坚定的热门。