Portland Timbers vs Austin FC

Portland host Austin at providence Park for this MLS clash early Monday morning Beijing time. Neither team have been in terrific form lately having won two of their latest five matches. However, I think we have a clear favorite for this match. Let's take a closer look..

Portland Timbers are a lot better team by raw class and I rate them as the fourth best team in the Western Conference - 4th is also their current place in the standings. Austin, on the other hand, have struggled throughout the whole season and are currently second last but in fact I rate them as the worst team in this Conference - even worse than Houston Dynamo who currently have one point less in the bank than the visitors here. They are particularly lame offensively and have scored the lowest number of goals in the conference - 35 goals that is and have allowed 53 goals. They have scored a decent number of goals lately though but I have not seen their offensive game improve really. They lack both quality and creativity. They surprisingly beat Sporting Kansas 3-1 at home in their most recent match but it was a rather undeserved win indeed and Kansas had over 60% ball possession and recorded over 80 dangerous attacks whereas Austin only had a bit over 20. Well, we all know this can happen in football sometimes.. I strongly believe the upset win affects the odds on the betting market here considerably too much offering us a lucrative betting opportunity. We all know Kansas are a good team and beating them looks flattering indeed for Austin. However, Austin have in fact been decent at home but very lame in away matches. They have lost eight of their latest games away from home and before that they took two draws. An awful record to say the least.. Before beating Kansas they were defeated by a pretty lowly team Dallas 2-1 and before that they narrowly beat Houston Dynamo 2-1 at home in a pretty balanced battle. Nothing to get excited about.

Portland, on the other hand, have been pretty solid throughout the season and have a lot better offense than the visitors. In defense the difference is not that substantial but is for sure still there. The hosts come into this match with two nice victories in their pocket having beaten Real Salt Lake 3-1 away from home and then San Jose 2-0 at home. The away win was perhaps a bit unjustified though when looking at the events on the pitch but they were very effective in making the most of their chances. The home 2-0 win was a solid one - they earned the win having recorded more scoring attempts and dangerous attacks. They also defended very well.

To sum up, if the visitors do not get lucky or improve considerably for the match I see the hosts having a very good chance taking a win. The probability must be around 64%. The hosts -0.5 goals handicap is my pick here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周一凌晨，波特兰在普罗维登斯公园主场迎战奥斯丁。这两支球队最近状态都不太好，最近五场比赛都赢了两场。然而，我认为我们有一个明显的最爱这场比赛。让我们仔细看看…

波特兰木材是一支很好的球队，我把他们评为西部第四强的球队，他们现在的排名也是第四。另一方面，奥斯汀整个赛季都在苦苦挣扎，目前排名倒数第二，但事实上我认为他们是西部最差的球队——甚至比现在比客队少一分的休斯顿迪纳摩还要差。他们的进攻能力尤其弱，而且是全联盟进球数最低的球队——35个进球，但却让球队进了53个球。他们最近进了不少球，但是我还没有看到他们的进攻有什么进步。他们缺乏素质和创造力。在最近的一场比赛中，他们出人意料地在主场以3-1击败了堪萨斯竞技队，但这的确是一场不值得的胜利，堪萨斯队控球率超过60%，有超过80次危险的进攻，而奥斯汀队只有20多一点。好吧，我们都知道这在足球比赛中有时会发生。我坚信这次意外的胜利会极大地影响投注市场的赔率给我们提供了一个丰厚的投注机会。我们都知道堪萨斯是一支很好的球队，击败他们对奥斯汀来说确实是一件好事。然而，奥斯丁在主场表现不错，但在客场却表现不佳。他们在最近的客场比赛中输了8场，在那之前他们有2场平局。至少可以说，这是一个糟糕的记录。在击败堪萨斯之前，他们被实力相当弱的达拉斯以2-1击败，而在此之前，他们在主场以2-1微弱优势击败了休斯顿迪纳摩，这场战斗相当平衡。没什么好激动的。

另一方面，波特兰在整个赛季都很稳固，他们的进攻比客队好得多。在防卫方面，差距不是那么大，但肯定仍然存在。东道主在这场比赛中已经取得了两场漂亮的胜利，分别是客场3-1击败皇家盐湖城和主场2-0击败圣何塞。客场的胜利也许有点不公平，但是从球场上的情况来看，他们非常有效地利用了他们的机会。主场2-0的胜利是稳固的——他们凭借更多的射门和危险的进攻赢得了这场胜利。他们的防守也很好。

总而言之，如果客队运气不好，或者在比赛中表现不佳，我认为东道主很有可能获胜。概率应该在64%左右。东道主-0.5个进球是我的选择。