It's a late call from me, but odds on Gremio +1.5 Asian handicap raised up too much and now I see excellent value in this option.

H2H looks awesome for this bet - Gremio didn't lost 16 of last 17 matches against Atletico with more than one goal margin.

Of course, Atletico have excellent season, they are leaders of the table with really good advantage above second place and there is not so long to way to go, but they are not goalscoring machines as they scored 44 goals in 28 matches - three teams scored more and this is not spectacular result for sure. In last round they lost on away 0:1 against Flamengo and for sure confidence is not sky-high. In addition to that today Atletico will play without their two important players - defender Nathan and winger Keno - both played in first squad in last round match.

Gremio have horrible season, they are in relegation zone. It's big shock because in last 5 years they always finished in top6. They didn't changed whole team in pre season so it's even more surprising. Gremio plays much better than their results shows. They are top6 team in Brazil Serie A with the ball - accurate passes per game/average possession. They are top10 in shots on target per game statistic.

I believe difference between both teams is not that big as table shows. Odds on Gremio level to the crazy level and now +1.5 looks very good.