Atatalanta vs Manhester United

Atalanta host Man United for this Champions League round 4 clash. This is a re-match from two weeks ago when Atalanta were leading 2-0 at half-time but Man United eventually grabbed a 3-2 win. The first half was indeed quality football from the Italians but Man United improved substantially for the second half and I would say in the end deserved the narrow victory.. Let's take a closer look at today's match..

We have won several picks going against "The Red Devils" this season I once again feel they are over-rated on the betting market. They are a very erratic team and can not be trusted at all. They lack defensive structure in particular and I do not trust Ole Gunnar as a manager. We won a pick easily some 2.5 weeks ago when Leicester comfortably beat them 4-2 at home and fully deserved the win despite not being a top team in the Premier League. Atalanta are about the same level as Leicester.. The Red Devils have not really convinced me this season neither in the Premier League or in the Champions League - perhaps expect for the season opener against Leeds, which they won 4-1, but were very efficient in using their scoring chances and Leeds defended badly. The expected goals number for them was not even close to four goals and Leeds played, as expected of course, very aggressive football offering Man United's dangerous offensive players too much space and chances to score. In this kind of a matches Man United - a team with huge talents - like Ronaldo, Fernandes and Pogba are of course strong, and will punish the opponent at a high % rate. Atalanta too play aggressive football, but are of course a lot better than Leeds. I strongly believe many goals are expected today. 

Man United have escaped with many undeserved wins this season which must one thing explaining their over-valuation on the betting market in almost all matches this season. For example against Villarreal in the Champions League they were pretty lucky to win by Cristiano Ronaldo's 2-1 goal in the last minutes of the match. The match was very balanced overall indeed. Ball possession was 50-50% and the Spanish team created more scoring attempts and shot on goal. Still Man United were priced around 1.50 on the betting market.. We all are aware the hosts have got Cristiano Ronaldo back after over ten years. He first played for Real Madrid and lastly in Turin, playing for Juventus. He is of course still in an amazing striker and in stunning physical shape. Thanks to him,  French World Champion Pogba, Fernandes and Rashford  Manchester United are slim favorites even in this match against a good team Atalanta but I believe Atalanta have slightly over 60% chance to take at least a draw. Man United were hammered about a week ago 5-0 by Liverpool -  a horribly bad performance -  and they have also lost to for example Aston Villa at home and to a pretty small team Young Boys in the Champions League.. They played quite well last week in the Premier League though beating Tottenham away from home but I must say Tottenham were far from their best and the expected goals numbers were pretty balanced 1.20 for the hosts and 1.40 for Man United, so the 0-3 final score does not illustrate the events on the pitch.

Atalanta have had a pretty good start for the season in Serie A and are currently in 5th place. Last week they comfortably beat Sampdoria, a decent team, 3-1 away from home and fully deserved the win. The expected goals number were 2.10 for Atalanta and 1.00 for the hosts. In their most recent match the played a 2-2 home draw versus Lazio. Not the best performance from them and a draw was a justified result. Lazio, of course, are a pretty good team. Atalanta too are a bit erratic but I expect a pretty balanced match today!

To sum up, a fun game to watch is expected and my pick is Atalanta +0.5 goals handicap.