Roma host Milan for this Serie A round 11 clash at Stadio Olimpico. Both are traditional big team in Italy and I expect a very tight clash today. Let's take a closer look at the match..

The visiting AC Milan are in terrific form having won six of their latest Serie A matches. I expect them having an excellent chance of taking at least a draw today as well! I must say Milan have been a bit lucky in terms of expected goals and points this season but still they have been impressive. They have have won nine the ten Serie A matches which is a stunningly good record! In their most recent match they took a narrow 1-0 win over Torino at home. It was not the a particularly from them - Torino in fact had 56% ball possession and created more scoring chances. Milan, however, created more in goals expectancy - about 1.20 goals whereas Torino's number was only 0.50. Good, solid teams like Milan are capable of winning even when their game is not even close to the maximum best level and that is what did they did that match and have done a few other times too this season. Before this match they played an excellent match when visiting Bologna and won 4-2. It was pretty strange so many goals were scored as Bologna only created 0.60 in goal expectancy and Milan created about 0.90 goals. Milan were, however, clearly the better team in the match with over 60% ball possession and clearly more scoring attempts. Milan were of course favorites in the match but Bologna are a quite good team - especially at home. Before these matches they suffered a narrow 0-1 loss in Portugal in the Champions League against Porto. Porto of course are not an absolute top European team, but still a pretty big club, who advanced all he way the quarter final last spring in the Champions League beating Juventus on the way but eventually getting ousted by Chelsea, who lifted the trophy in May. They did beat Chelsea 1-0 in London in the second leg though. Before this Milan defeated Verona 3-2 at home.

Roma are currently in the 4th place in the standings but have scored nine points less than Milan. They have won just two of their latest five matches in Serie A but have played okay. However, they have not been as impressive as Milan and in terms of expected points have been slightly lucky. Io a good they can be even better than Milan but they are a little erratic.  In their most recent match they defeated a very weak team Cagliari 2-1 away from home but were not particularly good. Yes, they deserved to win but let's remember Cagliari are a rock-bottom team in Serie A with only one win so far and six points in the bank. Before this they played a respectable 0-0 draw versus a very good team Napoli in a pretty balanced match. However, before this they were beaten 6-1 by a pretty small Norwegian team Bodo/Glimt in Norway. This result proves that Roma are not a solid team and can not be really trusted. Some two weeks ago they were beaten by Juventus 1-0 in Turin despite playing pretty well and missing a penalty.

To sum up, Milan +1 handicap is my pick here with a good chance of winning