Indeed, I rate the hosts, reigning champions, as one of the biggest favorites to win La Liga this season. The other two are of course Barcelona - despite being clearly weakened for this season mainly because of losing Leo Messi  - and Real Madrid. By raw class I rate the hosts as clearly better than visiting Real Sociedad who are surely better than average team but they have started the season well in the past to - only to gradually fade away not being able to make it to the top-4 and  earn a ticket to Champions League. They just do not have enough top players in the squad. They did make it to the Europa League where they have beaten a relatively weak team Austrian Sturm Graz 1-0 away from home as close to 70% favorites according to the betting market. They have also played a 2-2 draw versus Dutch PSV and a 1-1 draw versus Monaco. Overall, they have played pretty well this season - not denying that  - but they have also had luck on their side in terms of expected goals and points. For example in their most recent La Liga match the beat a pretty small team Mallorca 1-0 at home creating only some 0.40 in expected goals and were very lame offensively. They defended well though - as they have done in most matches this season. Mallorca only created 0.35 in expected goals. Before this match they once again showed very little offensively and failed to beat a very bad team, the last one in the standings, Getafe creating some 0.70 in expected goals. I believe Atletico Madrid, with their rock-solid defense will allow them very little scoring chances. A 1-0 home win might be a probable final score. Indeed, Atletico have allowed just six goals so far in La Liga..

Atletico Madrid too have struggled with scoring this season but we all know their long-term manager Diego Simeone's pretty pretty cautious tactics.. They do have more fire power for this season though as Antoine Griezmann has returned to the club. Together with Luis Suarez they are a deadly offensive duo. In their most recent La Liga match three weeks ago they were clearly better than Barcelona winning 2-0 and creating some 1.50 in expected goals - Barcelona's number was some 0.70 goals. Earlier this week the hosts faced one of the best teams in the World, Liverpool, and played well despite losing 2-3 at home. They even created more in expected goals than Liverpool despite the visitors having big ball possession %. The match was 2-2 when Griezmann received a red card on the 52' minute more or less ruining the hosts' changes.

To sum up, Atletico Madrid are not massive but very clear favorites here. The hosts -0.5 goals handicap is my pick for my fans here.