Estonia vs Belarus

Estonia host Belarus at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn for this FIFA World Cup qualification battle. This is a match between two pretty lowly teams by international standards and will probably not be a very entertaining one to watch but is still interesting betting-wise. I disagree with the current odds here - and see Estonia as not huge - but still solid favorites. They have have been a lot better than Belarus recently. Indeed, they have clearly improved under Thomas Haberli who took charge in January. Let's take closer look..

By raw class I see Belarus as the slightly better team - especially when taking a look at players' individual skill level,however, they have long list injured players for this match - Sergey Politevich, Roman Yuzepchuk, Alexander Sachivko, Nikolay Zolotov, Roman Shvetsov, Artem Rakhmanov, Nikita Korzun, Artem Kontsevoy, Denis Grechikho are out. Whilst Estonia does not have the most passionate home fans home advantage is still big in international football. Their situation with the squad for this match is a lot better - Martin Miller, Michael Lilander and Rauno Sappinen are out. Sappinen is an important player for the hosts but I think there is an over-reaction on the betting market concerning his absence.

Estonia have indeed played pretty well for their standards lately. In their most recent match they robbed a point through a goalless draw in Wales as heavy underdogs. Let's not forget Wales qualified for the play offs in the EURO 2020 last summer. Unsurprisingly Wales were the more dominant team in the match and had some 60% ball possession and created more scoring chances and shots on target. However, Estonia had their chances too - for example Käit struck the bar right before half-time. Estonia defended in very organised way and Wales were unable to create too many very dangerous chances. They also seemed to have great team spirit and the good result from this match - played about a month ago - will surely boost their confidence going into this match against a lot worse opponent than Wales. Before this they were the better team against Northern Ireland in a friendly match despite the narrow 0-1 loss at home. N. Ireland of course are not a great football country but still have a decent team. In June they took three victories versus Lithuania 1-0, Finland 1-0 in Helsinki and 2-1 versus Latvia. Let's remember Finland did qualify for the EURO 2020 and even took a lucky win against Denmark in Copenhagen. Good football from Estonia! On the 2nd of September Belgium defeated Estonia 5-2 but they are of course one the best teams in the World.

Belarus, on the other hand, are in terribly bad form! They have lost four successive World Cup qualifying matches, conceding 13 goals and scoring just two. They do have potential for better though, but this will probably happen when they have less injuries hindering them. In their most recent match they lost to Belgium only 0-1 at home but the result hugely flatters them. Belgium totally dominated the match. In June they were particularly bad at home as clear favorites losing to Azerbaijan 1-2. The visitors dominated the match with 66% ball possession and creating over twenty scoring chances - Belarus had six attempts. Let's bear in mind that Azerbaijan surely are not a good team at all. The latest win for Belarus was beating today's opponents Estonia at home 4-2 but a lot has changed since then! Belarus certainly did not earn to win by two goals' difference but were slightly better.

To sum up, I believe Estonia have an excellent chance to take at least a draw - Estonia +0.5 goals handicap is my pick for my growing fan-base!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

爱沙尼亚将在塔林的A. Le Coq Arena主场迎战白俄罗斯。以国际标准来看，这是两支实力相当弱的球队之间的比赛，可能不会是一场非常有趣的比赛，但仍然是有趣的赌博。我不同意目前的胜算——我认为爱沙尼亚的胜算不算大——但仍然是我坚定的最爱。他们最近比白俄罗斯好多了。事实上，在托马斯•哈伯利(Thomas Haberli)今年1月上任后，情况明显有所改善。让我们仔细看看…

通过原始类我看到白俄罗斯的略好团队——特别是当看看球员个人技术水平,然而,他们一直受伤的球员对这场比赛——Sergey Politevich列表,罗马Yuzepchuk,亚历山大•Sachivko Nikolay Zolotov,罗马Shvetsov Artem Rakhmanov,尼基塔可佐,Artem Kontsevoy,丹尼斯Grechikho。虽然爱沙尼亚没有最热情的主场球迷，但主场优势在国际足球比赛中仍然很大。他们在这场比赛中的情况好多了——马丁·米勒、迈克尔·利兰德和劳诺·萨丕宁都没有上场。萨皮宁是主队的重要球员，但我认为博彩市场对他的缺席反应过度了。

爱沙尼亚最近确实打得很好。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在与威尔士的比赛中以一场零比零的平局丢了一分。别忘了威尔士在去年夏天获得了2020年欧洲杯附加赛的参赛资格。不出所料，威尔士队在比赛中更占优势，控球率约为60%，并创造了更多射门机会。然而，爱沙尼亚也有机会，例如Käit在半场结束前击中横梁。爱沙尼亚的防守非常有组织，而威尔士则无法创造出太多危险的机会。他们似乎也有伟大的团队精神，这场大约一个月前的比赛的好成绩肯定会增强他们的信心，面对比威尔士差得多的对手。在此之前，他们在与北爱尔兰的友谊赛中表现较好，尽管他们在主场以0-1惜败。北爱尔兰当然不是一个伟大的足球国家，但仍然有一支不错的球队。6月，他们三次以1-0战胜立陶宛，1-0战胜芬兰，2-1战胜拉脱维亚。让我们记住，芬兰确实获得了2020年欧洲杯的参赛资格，甚至在哥本哈根幸运地战胜了丹麦。来自爱沙尼亚的好足球!9月2日，比利时5-2击败爱沙尼亚，但他们当然是世界上最好的球队之一。

另一方面，白俄罗斯的情况非常糟糕!他们已经连续输掉了四场世界杯预选赛，丢了13个球，只进了两球。他们确实有变得更好的潜力，但这可能会发生在他们受伤少的时候。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场0-1输给了比利时，但是结果让他们非常高兴。比利时完全控制了比赛。六月，他们在主场表现尤其糟糕，以1比2输给了阿塞拜疆。客队以66%的控球率控制了比赛，创造了20多个进球机会——白俄罗斯有6次射门。让我们记住，阿塞拜疆绝对不是一支好球队。白俄罗斯最近的胜利是在今天的主场以4-2击败对手爱沙尼亚，但从那以后很多事情都变了!白俄罗斯当然没有以两球之差赢得比赛，但还是略胜一筹。