Burnley host Norwich at Turf Moor round 7 battle. Neither of the two, of course, is a good team but I see Burnley as clearly a more clasy team. Playing at home - where Burnley have taken most of their points for several in a row  - I see them as pretty clear favorites. Let's take a closer look..

This pick is mainly based Norwich being extremely bad! Before the season started I rated "The Canaries" as the second worst team but based on their very weak performances right from the start of the season I have lowered their power rating illustrating a team's overall class and currently rate them as clearly the worst team in the Premier League - Newcastle are the second worst followed by Watford. It is hard to write anything positive about Norwich!  Their attack is very limited and Teemu Pukki seems to be almost their only hope for scoring - but he has not been at his best lately. Perhaps the minor injury he suffered before the EURO 2020 is still bothering him.. I also think he is  - at the age of 30+, already past his prime. However, the main problem is that Norwich midfielders and other strikers cannot provide him with enough quality assists. Pukki is not great at creating scoring chances for himself. It was clear already before the season started that losing Emiliano Buendia, their only true star player, would hurt but they have not been able to replace him at all. Norwich's defense is very vulnerable too. They have looked disorganized in every match this season and are in very big trouble especially against opponents with fast players and good counter-attacking. They have created very little in expected goals in almost all of the matches so they really have not deserved anything this season! I do not think they will take more than 2-3 wins this season and would be shocked if they were to avoid relegation. In their most recent match they, once again, were clearly outperformed by Everton and lost 0-2.

How about Burnley then? Well, they are of course not top team and not as good as Everton but still the difference in class compared to Norwich is relatively big. They played a pretty good match versus Everton some three weeks ago despite losing 1-3 away from home to Everton and could have been leading at half time. The goal expectancy was very balanced - similarly to a match versus Arsenal two weeks ago despite the 0-1 loss at home. A week ago they took a well-fought point from a pretty good team Leicester.

To sum up, Burnley are some 60% favorites to win here!