Everton vs Burnley

Everton host Burnley at Goodison Park for this English Premier League round 4 clash early Tuesday morning Beijing time. It probably will not be the most entertaining match to watch because of they way Burnley play - especially away from home. They defend were hard and play quite a big number of long balls. I think they would be pretty satisfied with a draw here. However, in my view Everton have a great chance to grab all three points here - let's take a closer look.

Everton have indeed started the season well taking two win and one draw. This is certainly better than most people would have expected and I have been slightly surprised too! They have created a lot more in expected goals than their matches in all if their three matches - First against Southampton, then Leeds sand lastly Brighton. Their performance away from home versus Brighton was particularly impressive and they won 2-0. Brighton are a good team indeed, better than many analysts realize and are pretty high in the standings too. Everton created some 1.60 in expected goals whereas Brighton's number was quite surprisingly only about 0.65 goals. Everton were very impressive especially in defense. If they can maintain this level Burnley will have hard time trying to score today.. As a result of Everton's past three performances I rate them as the 7th best team in the league - a bit higher than most analysts and the betting market in general. The difference in raw class compared to Burnley is substantial. I rate Burnley as the third worst team in the league - only Norwich and Watford are worse in my opinion. Burnley have started the season as expected - relatively bad and have not win a single match yet.. In their first match versus Liverpool they had no real chance at all to take points and after that they faced Brighton but lost 1-2 at home. It was not a bad performance but Brighton were the better team. Burnley have grabbed one point - against Leeds at home- so far and have not really deserved much more. They were pretty lame offensively in the match versus Leeds but did create some 1.45 in expected goals - about the same as Leeds who are not a great team especially away from home. Burnley have been taking a very big number of their points at home in recent years and these matches at Turf Moor have saved them from relegation - which has often been expected/feared of by many analysts and sometimes even Burnley's own fans - many years in a row now. However, away from home they very often struggle, especially against strong teams. I expect Everton's quality offensive players to be too much for Burnley's defense to handle - despite Burney's decent defensive line and great fighting spirit.

To sum up, Everton are very clear faves tonight. Everton -0.5 goals handicap is my pick for my fans.

北京时间周二凌晨，埃弗顿将在古迪逊公园主场迎战伯恩利。这可能不会是一场最有趣的比赛，因为伯恩利的比赛方式，尤其是客场。他们防守很顽强，打了很多长传。我想他们会很满意这里的平局。然而，在我看来，埃弗顿有很大的机会在这里抓住所有的三分-让我们仔细看看。

埃弗顿本赛季开局不错，两胜一平。这当然比大多数人预期的要好，我也有点惊讶!他们在三场比赛中创造了更多的预期进球，第一场是对南安普顿，然后是利兹，最后是布莱顿。他们客场对布莱顿的表现尤其令人印象深刻，最终以2-0获胜。布赖顿确实是一支好球队，比许多分析人士意识到的要好，而且排名也相当高。埃弗顿的预期进球数约为1.60个，而布莱顿的预期进球数仅为0.65个。埃弗顿的表现令人印象深刻，尤其是在防守方面。如果他们能保持目前的水平，伯恩利今天将很难进球。鉴于埃弗顿过去的三场比赛，我认为他们在联赛中排名第七——比大多数分析人士和博彩市场的总体水平略高。和伯恩利的区别是很大的。我认为伯恩利是联赛中第三差的球队，仅次于诺维奇和沃特福德。伯恩利的赛季开局和预期一样——相对糟糕，还没有赢过一场比赛。在对阵利物浦的第一场比赛中，他们根本没有真正的得分机会，之后他们面对布赖顿，但在主场以1比2输掉了比赛。这是一个不错的表现，但布赖顿是更好的球队。到目前为止，伯恩利已经在主场对利兹联的比赛中拿到了一分，而且也不应该得到更多。在对利兹联的比赛中，他们的进攻很弱，但却创造了1.45的预期进球——这和利兹联差不多，利兹联并不是一支伟大的球队，尤其是在客场。伯恩利已经把一个非常大的数量的点在国内近年来这些比赛的地盘沼泽,救他们脱离降级——经常被许多分析师预期/担心,有时甚至是伯恩利的粉丝们——现在许多年。然而，在客场，他们经常表现不佳，尤其是面对强队时。我认为埃弗顿的高质量进攻球员对伯恩利的防守来说是难以对付的，尽管伯恩利的防线很好，斗志也很强。

看好埃弗顿获胜