Lyon host Strasbourg for this French Ligue 1 round 5 match at the Groupama Stadium. Just taking a look at the standings alone one might think it will be a relatively balanced battle but I see the hosts as clear favorites today. Lyon are a lot bigger club than Strasbourg and in 2020 they even beat Manchester City in the Champions League play offs advancing to face the eventual Champion Bayern Munich. They have more quality than the visitors in every area of the game. I rate them as the third best team in Ligue 1 after the huge favorites PSG and Monaco who are only marginally better in my opinion than Lyon. Last year their final place in the standings was fourth. Strasbourg, on the other hand were in the 15th place last season and at the moment I rate in the 17th place in my power ratings and the difference is big in raw class in terms of raw quality. Lyon have had a few disappointing performances at home lately but traditionally are strong at their stadium. Home advantage is overall pretty big in France, bigger than in most football leagues in Europe. The odds  today would be lower if Lyon had even a little bit better results so far I believe.

It is of course true Lyon have not started the season well, in fact they have been pretty disappointing so far and I have lowered their rating a bit based on the first four matches. However, we should never react too much on the first rounds' results. Lyon did finally got a win in the previous match away from home beating Nantes 1-0 despite playing with ten men for some fifteen minutes. They had some 65% ball possession but I must say it was a not a dominant performance at all. They can and will surely improve a lot over the season as they have quality in defense, midfield and offense. The win must have been very important for them mentally as I am sure they were starting to feel the pressure.. The win should indeed boost them to beat a pretty lowly team Strasbourg here who also have just one this season so far. However, for them this is pretty match the level one can expect from them - I do not see them having the quality for improvement. They beat Brest in their most recent match 3-1 at home but Brest are not a good team and the match was pretty balanced. Nothing I that would really excite me.. Strasbourg were close to 50% favorites in this match according to the betting market. Before this they played a somewhat disappointing 1-1 draw versus Troyes at home, also as clear favorites, but were slightly better on the pitch though. But again - Troyes are not a big team and traditionally are weak away from home. If Lyon can play even close to their maximum level Strasbourg would probably need luck to grab even a draw today. Their defense will really be tested today, and so far this they have not convinced me - and neither did they impress me last season. 

To sum up, Lyon should improve their performance and are very clear favorites today. Lyon to win is my my pick for my fans.