Universidad de Chile vs Deportes La Serena

Universidad de Chile host La Serena at the Estadio Nacional Julio Martizez Pradanos for this Chilean Primera Division round 20 clash. I see a pretty big difference between the teams by raw class. In my power ratings that reflect the teams' class the hosts are in third place whereas the visitors are in the 15th place. The hosts are currently in fourth place in the standings - with one match less played than Union La Calera who occupy the third place. La Serena are in the 12th place but Melipilla on the 15th place are only one point behind. The pick is, however, not only baced on the power ratings but also on the fact that the visitors have been in a very bad form in recent weeks and have lost four of their latest five matches. Away from home they have won just one of their latest ten matches and I would be quite surprised if they were to grab a win here against a lot stronger opponent. La Serena have not been bad only result-wise recently but their performances on the pitch have been lame indeed. I have seen most of their matches and read extensive reports on the ones I was unable to watch. Their biggest problem is the vulnerable defense and they have allowed two goals in each of their latest four matches and could the number could easily be even bigger.. On the the 8th of August their defense was particularly fragile versus Universidad Catolica - they lost 3-4. Whilst I think they are capable of some improvement in defense - and perhaps overall at some point - they would have to play much better than they have recently to grab even a draw here. The atmosphere in the team does not seem to be 100% at the moment so a major improvement for this match is not a very probable scenario.. In their most recent match versus Curico Unido away from home their performance was awful indeed. The hosts had some twenty scoring chances whereas La Serena had about five andonly two shots on target. The 55% ball possession should not fool us at all as they struggled to create match danger near the opponents goal for the most of the match. It is also worth noticing that Curico Unido are the second last team, in the standings in the 16th place - only Santiago Wanderers with the pathetic two points (!) earned are behind them. Before the Curico Unido match they lost to a good team Audax Italiano 0-2 at and were not hopelessly bad but the visitors surely deserved to win!

This pick is mainly based on the visitors pretty poor level and them being over-rated but U. De Chile are in terrific form and slighly under-valued in many pre-match analyses and previews. First of all, they are clearly the bigger team than La Serena by financial resources and have more quality in every area of the game - especially in defense. But the offensive capability is also there and I estimate their attack as whole is the fourth best in this league. They should be able to score two goals here which would very likey be enough to beat La Serena. However, with the solid defense even one goal might be enough to win.. The most recent match was not a particularly good performance by the hosts - a 1-1 draw away from home versus Huachipato. However, the hosts were the favorites in the match according to the betting market and slightly better in the match on the pitch but once again U. De Chile defended very well. Before this they took two 2-1 victories versus Melipilla and Universidad Catolica and a similar performace would probably be enough to take three points today!

To sum up, the hosts are big favorites with a slightly over 70% chance of winning.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

智利大学在普拉达诺斯国家体育场主场迎战拉塞雷娜，这是智利一级联赛第20轮的比赛。我发现两队在原始级别上有很大的不同。在我的实力排名中，东道主排在第三位，而客队排在第15位。东道主目前排名第四，比排名第三的联邦队少打了一场比赛。拉·塞雷纳排在第12位，而位于第15位的梅利皮拉仅落后一分。然而，这个选择不仅仅是基于球队的实力排名，还基于客队最近几周的状态非常糟糕，在最近的五场比赛中输了四场。在客场，他们只赢了最近10场比赛中的一场，如果他们能在这里战胜比他们强大得多的对手，我会感到非常惊讶。塞雷纳最近不仅成绩不好，但他们在球场上的表现确实很差劲。我看过他们的大部分比赛，也阅读了大量我无法观看的比赛的报道。他们最大的问题是脆弱的防守，他们在最近的四场比赛中都丢了两个球，这个数字可能会更大。在8月8日对阵天主教大学时，他们的防守尤其脆弱——他们3-4输掉了比赛。虽然我认为他们在防守上有能力提高，也许在某种程度上，他们必须打得比最近更好，才能拿到平局。目前球队的气氛似乎不是100%的，所以对这场比赛的重大改进是不太可能的。在最近一次客场对阵库里科的比赛中，他们的表现确实很糟糕。主队有大约20个进球机会，而西塞雷娜队有大约5个进球机会，只有2次射正。55%的控球率不应该愚弄我们，因为他们在比赛的大部分时间里都在对手球门附近制造比赛危险。同样值得注意的是，库里科是倒数第二的球队，排在第16位——只有圣地亚哥流浪者队以可怜的2分落后于他们。在对阵库里科的比赛之前，他们0-2输给了意大利Audax队，但他们的表现还不错，他们理应获胜!

这个选择主要是因为客队的水平很差，他们被高估了，但是智利队的状态很好，在很多赛前分析和预演中都被低估了。首先，在财力上，他们显然比西甲更强大，在比赛的各个方面都更有实力，尤其是在防守方面。但是进攻能力也在那里，我估计他们的进攻整体上在联盟中排名第四。他们应该能在这里打进两球，这很有可能足以击败西甲。然而，有了坚实的防守，即使一个进球也足以赢得比赛。最近的一场比赛东道主表现不太好——主场1-1战平华奇帕托。然而，根据博彩市场，东道主在比赛中是最受欢迎的，在球场上的表现稍好一些，但智利队再次防守得很好。在此之前，他们以2-1战胜了梅利皮拉和天主教大学，如果今天有类似的表现，可能就足以拿下3分!