Albania vs Hungary

Albania host Hungary at the Elbasan Arena for this World Cup qualification match on Sunday. It is a very high-stakes match as both teams have a chance to finish second in the group. England will very likely win the group as they lead the group and are clearly the best team in the group. Hungary all are third at the moment with seven points, Poland have seven points too and Albania have six points. I'm expecting a tight battle here but see Albania as slim favorites here. As I have written many times before the home advantage in international matches - both club and national teams. It seems now after the Covid-19 restrictions have been lifted in most places and enthusiastic fans can finally, after a long break, cheer for their team the home advantage seems to even a bit higher than in "normal" circumstances. Albanians are a very patriotic people and the atmosphere should be very good at the Elbesan Arena. I think Hungary are over-rated here after their two draws versus Germany and France in EURO 2020. Let's not forget Hungary were lucky in both matches to get a point. Especially versus Germany Hungary were totally dominated and were just very effective making the most of their scoring chances. We must also remember that Hungary played at home versus France with was a huge benefit as the arena was full of screaming home fans. Versus Portugal they were clearly the worse team too - despite the fact that the match was 0-0 after eighty minutes. The final score was 3-0 for Portugal.

As a team by raw class Hungary are slightly better but still not a top team. Their brutal 0-4 loss some days ago to England shows how limited they really are. Of course England are a World-class team but Hungary had no chance at all, had no shots on goal and had some 70% ball possession. Hungary are capable of enhancing their performance but they indeed have to improve a lot to win. Albania were beaten in Warsaw 1-4 in their most recent match but the match was a lot more balanced than the final score suggests. The ball possession was almost 50/50 and Albania had many more scoring attempts. I believe the odds here are heavily reflected by this pretty heavy loss. Albania do have potential and surprisingly good individuals too. Let's also not forget that Albania did play in the EURO 2016. Hungary are offensively slightly better as a whole though. Both teams are pretty equal in terms of defensive capability.

To sum up, there is value in Hungary and my pick for my fans is Hungary +0.5 goals and the pick close to 70% chance of winning

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

阿尔巴尼亚将于周日在爱尔巴桑体育场迎战匈牙利，争夺世界杯资格赛。这是一场非常危险的比赛，因为两队都有机会以小组第二的成绩结束比赛。英格兰很有可能赢得小组，因为他们是小组的领头羊，而且显然是小组中最好的球队。匈牙利目前以7分位列第三，波兰7分，阿尔巴尼亚6分。我预计这里会有一场激烈的战斗，但我认为阿尔巴尼亚在这里是微弱的优势。就像我之前写过很多次的那样，主场在国际比赛中的优势——无论是俱乐部还是国家队。现在看来，在大多数地方取消了对新冠肺炎的限制，热情的球迷在经过长时间的休息后终于可以为自己的球队欢呼了，主场优势似乎比“正常”情况下还要高。阿尔巴尼亚人是一个非常爱国的民族，埃尔贝桑球场的气氛应该非常好。我认为匈牙利在2020年欧洲杯与德国和法国的两场平局后被高估了。我们不要忘记匈牙利在两场比赛中都很幸运得到了一分。特别是对阵德国时，匈牙利完全被控制住了，他们非常有效地利用了大部分得分机会。我们还必须记住，匈牙利在主场对阵法国是一个巨大的好处，因为球场上挤满了尖叫的家乡球迷。对阵葡萄牙时，他们显然也是最差的球队——尽管比赛80分钟后比分是0-0。葡萄牙最后的比分是3比0。

作为一支原始级别的队伍，匈牙利稍微好一些，但仍然不是顶级队伍。他们几天前以0-4惨败给英格兰，显示出他们的实力有多么有限。当然，英格兰是一支世界级的球队，但匈牙利完全没有机会，没有射门，控球率约为70%。匈牙利有能力提高他们的表现，但他们确实需要提高很多才能赢得比赛。阿尔巴尼亚在最近的一场比赛中在华沙1-4被击败，但这场比赛比最后比分显示的要平衡得多。控球率几乎是50/50，阿尔巴尼亚有更多的射门机会。我相信这次惨重的损失在很大程度上反映了这种可能性。阿尔巴尼亚也有潜力和令人惊讶的优秀人才。我们也不要忘记阿尔巴尼亚参加了2016欧洲杯。匈牙利整体上进攻稍好一些。