Serbia vs Luxembourg

Serbia host Luxembourg at Stadion Rajko Mitić in Belgrade for this World Cup 2022 qualifying clash. I see the hosts as bigger favorites than the betting market versus a tiny football country Luxembourg and recommend -1.5 goals handicap bet on the them. Serbia are a traditional successful football country and must be irritated by disappointingly missing the EURO 2020 last this summer. They did, however, qualify for the World Cup in Russia in 2018 and played better than the results indicate.Whilst I see their team as slightly worse than three years ago they are still a force to be reckoned with in international football. They have a few successful clubs in the country too - Red Star Belgrade being the most successful. Serbia's key players are absolutely World-class players - Sergej Milinković-Savić is an offensive midfielder who has played extremely well for a long time already in Italy. Fulham's striker Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored a few goals for Fulham in recent weeks and is a dangerous guy who is often under-valued. I believe the guys mentioned above in particular to cause a lot of problems for Luxembourg's defense today but there are other players capable of scoring too. Their defense should also be good enough to allow the visitors very few scoring chances. In March Serbia proved what they are capable of versus Portugal taking a point after a great football match. The score was 2-2 but despite being clear underdogs according to the betting market ( Portugal to win was around 1.75) Serbia could have won the match as they created slightly more in goal expectancy despite Portugal having 54% ball possession. We all know how good a football country Portugal is so it was a very good performance indeed. Luxembourg, on the hand, were badly beaten by Portugal also in March 1-3 but the numbers could have been even bigger. Portugal had over ten scoring chances whereas Luxembourg did not create much offensively. Before facing Portugal Serbia comfortably beat Azerbaijan at the Baku Olympic Stadium. Luxembourg are about the same level as them. Serbian people are fanatic about their national team and will push their team to score several goals here so I expect the hosts to keep attacking even after the probable 1-0 goal here. Serbia are in a tight battle with Portugal to win this group and can't drop points here - I believe they have an over 60% chance to win by at least two goals!

Having explained how good Serbia should be, this pick is mainly based on Luxembourg being heavily over-rated by the betting market and some analysts too. They did beat Azerbaijan some days four days ago 2-1 at home and deserved the narrow win but Azerbaijan are nothing special and Luxembourg were some 47% favorites to win according to the betting market. The odds here are, I believe, heavily influenced by Luxembourg's surprising win in Ireland in March but the hosts were the better team and Luxembourg were somewhat lucky to win 1-0. This win has made some people speculate that perhaps they have a chance to qualify from this group. In my opinion this is extremely unlikely. Let's remember Ireland are a surprisingly bad football country nowadays - a lot worse than the team looks on paper. Whilst football is on the rise in Luxembourg and a local club Dudelange had some success in Europa League a few years ago I simply haven't seen anything from Luxembourg to indicate that they would be anything more but a small, pretty limited football country at the end of the day. Their players play in a lot smaller clubs than the Serbians which tells a lot. Their defense is quite good though and I am not expecting Serbia to totally crush them.

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塞尔维亚将在贝尔格莱德Rajko体育场Mitić主场迎战卢森堡，争夺2022年世界杯预选赛。我认为主办国比博彩市场更受欢迎，与足球小国卢森堡相比，我建议在他们身上下-1.5个进球的差点赌。塞尔维亚是一个传统的足球强国，今年夏天遗憾地错过了2020年欧洲杯，一定让塞尔维亚很恼火。然而，他们确实获得了2018年俄罗斯世界杯的参赛资格，而且表现得比结果显示的要好。虽然我认为他们的球队比三年前略差，但他们仍然是国际足坛不可忽视的力量。他们在这个国家也有一些成功的俱乐部——贝尔格莱德红星是最成功的。塞尔维亚的关键球员绝对是世界级的球员——塞尔吉Milinković-Savić是一名进攻型中场球员，他已经在意大利打了很长一段时间了。富勒姆的前锋米特罗维奇在最近几周为富勒姆打进了一些球，他是一个危险的家伙，经常被低估。我相信上面提到的那些人今天给卢森堡的防守带来了很多问题，但是还有其他球员也有能力进球。他们的防守也应该足够好，让客队很少有得分机会。3月，塞尔维亚在一场精彩的足球比赛后，以一分的成绩证明了他们有能力对抗葡萄牙。尽管比分是2比2，但根据博彩市场的数据，塞尔维亚明显处于劣势(葡萄牙以1.75左右的比分获胜)，尽管葡萄牙拥有54%的控球率，但塞尔维亚仍有可能赢得比赛，因为他们创造了更多的进球预期。我们都知道葡萄牙是一个多么好的足球国家，所以这确实是一场非常好的比赛。另一方面，卢森堡在3月1日至3日也被葡萄牙严重击败，但数字本可以更大。葡萄牙有超过10个进球机会，而卢森堡没有创造多少进攻机会。在对阵葡萄牙之前，塞尔维亚在巴库奥林匹克体育场轻松击败了阿塞拜疆。卢森堡和他们差不多。塞尔维亚人对他们的国家队很狂热，他们会让他们的球队在这里进几个球，所以我预计东道主会继续进攻，即使在可能的1-0的进球之后。塞尔维亚正在与葡萄牙进行一场激烈的小组赛，他们不能在这里丢分——我相信他们有超过60%的机会赢下至少两球!

在解释了塞尔维亚应该有多好之后，这个选择主要是基于卢森堡被博彩市场和一些分析师严重高估了。四天前，他们在主场以2-1击败了阿塞拜疆，应该是险胜，但阿塞拜疆没什么特别的，根据博彩市场，卢森堡有47%的胜算。我认为，胜算很大程度上受到了卢森堡3月份在爱尔兰出人意料的胜利的影响，但东道主是一支更好的球队，卢森堡1-0获胜有点幸运。这场胜利让一些人猜测，也许他们有机会从这个小组出线。在我看来，这是极不可能的。让我们记住，爱尔兰现在是一个令人惊讶的糟糕足球国家——比球队在纸上看起来糟糕得多。虽然足球是在上升在卢森堡和当地俱乐部Dudelange在欧罗巴联赛取得了一定成功仅仅几年前,我还没有看到任何东西,从卢森堡表明他们是什么但小,很有限的足球国家在一天结束的时候。他们的球员在比塞尔维亚人小很多的俱乐部踢球，这说明了很多。