America versus Club Tijuana

Club America host  Club Tijuana at Estadio Azteca this Mexico Liga MX Round 6 match. The hosts are deservedly clear favorites here as they currently lead in the standings with thirteen points whereas the visiting Club Tijuana are in the 17th place. However, I see the match as more balanced than the betting market and many football analysts do and will go for the Club Tijuana +1.5 goals handicap option here. Let's take a look at the reasons behind the pick..

First of all the hosts have won only one of their five latest matches by more than one goal and have scored only seven goals in five matches so far in Mexico Liga MX. The visitors, on the other hand, have also only lost one of their latest matches by more than one goal in this league and twice in ten of their latest matches overall. One of these ten matches was a friendly against San Diego Royal which they actually won 1-0. Once again I think the visitors have over 65% chance to cover the +1.5 goals handicap. We must remember it is actually a quite common situation in football betting to see value on the underdog - especially on the +1.5 handicap as some of my fans experienced and won a pick in the Olympics on Egypt U23 and South Africa U23  - both +1.5 goals as heavy underdogs. Neither of the teams won but Egypt forced a draw versus Spain U23 and South Africa U23 lost 0-1 to Japan U23. 

Today I expect Club Tijuana to take a very defensive approach and even if - and probably when - as the hosts are clear favorites - based on what I have seen from them previously, they end up trailing 0-1 they will likely still defend hard and not take very big risks offensively. They have allowed eight goals so far in the league which is not a very high number. Club Tijuana have scored four goals so far in the league but I see them having more offensive potential - especially Mauro Manotas is a dangerous striker and ca for sure score today! In their most recent match they played well at home and would have definitely deserved a win but it was 1-1 draw. Club Tijuana had some twenty scoring attempts and a lot more shots on goal and more promising attacks than then the visitors Puebla. The hosts are a good and tactically smart team and often concentrate on protecting a one goal lead instead of risking it for a more goals. They too played well taking yet another narrow win in their most recent match beating Juarez 2-1 away from home but Juarez are not a good team and the result was justified. However, it was not at all a dominant performance.

To sum up, I believe the visitors have a better chance to challenge the hosts here than the betting market thinks and Club Tijuana +1.5 goals handicap is my pick.