My bet for big match AC Milan - Juventus
2021-01-06

Przem

外籍分析师

意甲

01/07 03:45

已完赛

解读理由:

In my opinion Juventus have good chances to make win in today's match up.

This is extremely important match for Serie A table - Juventus have to win this match to reduce gap between them and Milan to 7 points. No excuses, in current situation 1 point is not good enough. Juventus is multi title defender and despite bad start they have all tools to win once again.

I believe that will be all-in match. Since draw 1:1 between both teams at the start of 2012, we didn't saw draw in last 16 matches in a row. Juventus have big advantage as they won 13 of these matches. Juventus scored more than one goal in 8 of last 12 matches against Milan. Last match between both teams has been played as well on San Siro - that was crazy game, Juventus leaded 2:0, but at the end of the day they lost 2:4. Zlatan Ibrahimovic had huge impact on that outcome, but unfortunately today he is unavailable. Milan didn't won two matches in a row against Juventus since 2010.

As I mentioned before Milan is without their the biggest player Ibrahimovic. Central defender Gabbia (6 matches), important defensive midfielder Bennacer (1 assist in 9 matches) and key winger Saelemaekers (2 goals in 13 matches) are unavailable as well. Key defensive midfielder Tonali (12 matches) is suspended, that may be problematic - Krunic will replace him (he gave away penalty in last round). Juventus important striker Morata is unavailable, but is not big problem in my opinion, same as absence of second-choice Alex Sandro. There are positive info in Juve camp, two key players - right defender Cuardado (3 assists in 13 matches) and central midfielder Rabiot (1 assist in 11 matches) back to the line up after suspensions. With Rabiot Juventus should be able to control middle zone, he is one class above Krunic.

Of course Milan results looks great, but in last weeks they had a lot of luck. At home against Parma (2:2) they scored very late goal (90+1'). They won in last home game against Lazio 3:2, but they didn't deserved - expected goals scored for Milan 1.68, for Lazio 1.83 - Milan won by very late goal (90+2'). In last round Milan won on away against Benevento 2:0, but once again that wasn't fully deserved result - expected goals scored for Milan 1.41, for Benevento 2.60. In last round Juventus won 4:1 at home against Udinese and for sure they are full of confidence now. Juventus don't have problems with creativity in 4 of last 6 matches in all competitions (5 in Serie A and Champions League against Barcelona) they score more than 2 goals. 4 times in these matches they had expected goals scored number above 2.48. This is big difference in comparison to last Milan matches. Ronaldo means the same for Juventus what Ibrahimovic for Milan, but fortunately for guests he is available and he is in amazing form - he scored 2 goals and made excellent assist in last round. In current season Portuguese super star scored 14 goals in 11 matches (9 goals came in away matches), he looks unstoppable. Other Juventus offensive player Dybala likes to play against Milan - he scored 7 goals in 11 league matches against them.

Juventus manager Andrea Pirlo is former Milan legend (then he played in Juventus), he played 407 Serie A matches for Rossoneris. When he left the club, he played 7 matches against Milan and won 5 times. I believe this is huge match for him, real game changer. He know Juventus needs win here and then they may go with momentum all way long. I believe in Juventus chances today and I see excellent value on guests side.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

在我看来,尤文图斯有很好的机会在今天的比赛中获胜。

这对意甲积分榜来说是非常重要的一场比赛,尤文图斯必须赢得这场比赛,才能把他们和米兰的差距缩小到7分。没有借口,在目前情况下1分是不够的。尤文图斯是多个冠军的后卫,尽管开局不好,但他们有一切手段来再次赢得比赛。

我相信这将是一场全力以赴的比赛。自从2012年初两队1:1战平以来,我们在过去的16场比赛中都没有看到平局。尤文图斯有很大的优势,因为他们赢了13场比赛。尤文图斯在过去12场对米兰的比赛中有8场进球超过1个。两队之间的最后一场比赛在圣西罗也踢得很好——那是一场疯狂的比赛,尤文图斯领先2:0,但最后他们输了2:4。伊布对结果的影响非常大,但不幸的是今天他不能上场。自2010年以来,米兰没有连续赢过尤文图斯两场比赛。

正如我之前提到的,米兰没有他们最大的球员伊布。中后卫加比亚(6场比赛),重要的防守中场本纳塞(9场1次助攻)和关键边锋萨勒梅克斯(13场2球)也不能上场。关键的防守型中场托纳利(12场比赛)将被禁赛,这可能会有问题——克鲁尼奇将顶替他(他在上一轮被罚点球)。尤文图斯的重要前锋莫拉塔无法上场,但在我看来这并不是什么大问题,就像替补桑德罗的缺席一样。尤文阵营中有一些积极的消息,两名关键球员——右后卫库拉多(13场比赛3次助攻)和中前卫拉比特(11场比赛1次助攻)在停赛后回到了阵容中。有了拉比特,尤文图斯应该能够控制中场,他比克鲁尼奇高一级。

当然米兰的成绩看起来很好,但是上周他们很幸运。在主场对阵帕尔马(2:2)的比赛中,他们很晚才进了球(90+1)。他们在上一场主场比赛中3:2战胜拉齐奥,但他们并没有得到应有的成绩——米兰的进球为1.68,拉齐奥的进球为1.83——米兰以非常晚的进球(90+2')获胜。在上一轮比赛中,米兰2:0战胜贝内文,但这又一次不是完全应得的结果——米兰的预期进球是1.41,贝内文是2.60。上一轮尤文图斯主场4:1战胜乌迪内斯,他们现在充满了信心。在过去6场比赛中,尤文图斯的创造力在4场比赛中都没有问题(5场在意甲和欧冠对巴塞罗那),他们进了2个以上的球。在这些比赛中,有4次他们预期的进球数在2.48以上。这和米兰的上一场比赛相比有很大的不同。罗纳尔多对尤文图斯的意义就像伊布拉希莫维奇对米兰的意义一样,但幸运的是,对于客人来说,他是可以上场的,而且他的状态很好——他在上一轮打进了2球,助攻也很出色。本赛季葡萄牙超级巨星在11场比赛中打进14球(其中9球来自客场),他看起来不可阻挡。另一位尤文图斯的进攻球员迪巴拉喜欢在对阵米兰的比赛中出场——他在对阵米兰的11场联赛中打进7球。

尤文图斯主帅安德里亚·皮尔洛是前米兰传奇人物(当时他在尤文图斯效力),他为红黑军团踢了407场意甲比赛。当他离开俱乐部时,他打了7场对米兰的比赛,5次获胜。我相信这对他来说是一场伟大的比赛,真正改变游戏规则的比赛。他知道尤文图斯需要在这里赢球,然后他们可能会一路走下去。我相信尤文图斯今天有机会,我看到了客队的巨大价值。

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