Neftçi Baku vs Maccabi Haifa

Neftçi Baku welcome visitors from Israel at Bakcell Arena tonight for this UEFA Europa Conference League fourth round first leg. I have watched almost all Europa League and Conference League qualification matches this season and read extensive reports on the few matches I was unable to watch. The hosts dropped out from Europe League after losing to Finnish HJK Helsinki after a very disappointing two matches I followed extra carefully as HJK are my favorite team but htse matches were not offered on the platform to post picks on. I believe Baku will have a very hard time trying to beat a stronger opponents Maccabi Haifa on aggregate. Let's take a closer look..

Indeed, HJK, quite surprisingly, were slightly the better team even in Baku in the first leg! The hosts' defense seemed very vulnerable and HJK punished them twice in the second half and could have scored even more goals in the match. Baku of course are not a bad team per se and do have a few skilled players. Both of their goals were fine individual efforts - first a shot from long distance and then magnificent a free kick by Emin Makhmudov, also from a long distance. However, the goal expectancy for these scoring chances was not very high. In Helsinki at the Bolt Arena Baku were crushed by HJK 3-0. HJK were some 53% favorites to win in 90 minutes according to the betting market in this match. The first half was pretty cautious football by both teams both in the second half the deadly Riski brothers destroyed Baku. Right after half time Riku Riski made the most of his chance and scored 1-0 for HJK. After this Riku Riski received a neat pass from Murillo inside the penalty area earning a penalty for the hosts. His brother Roope gave Baku's goalkeeper no chance and made it 2-0. Baku's morale took a big hit and whilst they had some decent scoring chances in the second half, it never looked like they would be able to challenge for the win. In the dying minutes of the match Roope scored again making it 3-0. HJK are the biggest team and are no strangers to success in Europe - they played in the Europa League group stage in 2014 but since that they have only once come even close to renewing that achievement. That was in 2015 when FC Astana scored a late goal 4-3 winning goal in the second leg advancing the the group stage. However, Maccabi Haifa are without a doubt much better club than HJK and are clear favorites even in Baku tonight! Baku have not won any of their latest five matches and played a disappointing draw against Gabala at home a few days ago as some 68% favorites. Before the HJK matches against HJK they beat Dinamo Tbilisi twice 2-1 but were the worse team in Tbilisi in terms of expected goals and at home it was a pretty balanced battle.

Maccabi Haifa, on the other hand, defeated Dinamo Tbilisi first in Georgia 2-1 and then 5-1 in Israel! Whilst the 5-1 was perhaps too much in terms of expected goals the Israelis did dominate. After that they humiliated HB Torshavn from the Faroe Islands 8-2 on aggregate. Torshavn of course are a bad team so I do not read too much into those two matches though. On the 25th of July they also defeated a good Israeli team Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-0 at home and are in very good form overall. Indeed, they are a lot better than Baku by raw class! Isreali teams often struggle away from home but the crowd in Baku did not seem to be the most enthusiastic one despite some fans taking off their shirts to celebrate goals etc. Azerbaijan clearly is not a country with the best football culture or tradition..

Lastly, let's also take a quick look at some numbers too to show the difference in raw class between Neftci Baku and Maccabi Haifa. According to a respected and well-known German website Transfermarkt.com Maccabi Haifa's players have a total market value of 17.68 million euros whereas Neftci Baku's players are valued at only 7.65 million euros. Based on what I have seen from the Isreali club recently I would say their team's real market value should be about 25 million.. While the total market of a team's players does not fully reflect the overall class of a team as older but still very good players, like Ballon d'Or winner Luca Modric or the Italian legend and fresh European Champion Giorgio Chiellini, are less valuable than their true current value on the pitch. On the other hand, young and very promising future star players like Manchester United's Marcus Rashford, 21 have a higher market value than their current level in action would indicate. However, a team's players' total market value still does give us a good picture on how good the team is.

To sum up, I very rarely go for the away team in international club competitions but today I will make an exception! Maccabi Haifa have some 50% chance to win. The visitors -0.5 is my pick here!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

Neftçi巴库迎战来自以色列的海法马卡比，今晚在巴克赛尔球场观看欧联杯第四轮首回合比赛。我看了本赛季几乎所有的欧罗巴联赛和联赛预选赛，并阅读了我无法观看的几场比赛的大量报道。东道主在输了两场非常令人失望的比赛后退出了欧洲联赛，因为HJK是我最喜欢的球队，但htse比赛没有在平台上提供。我相信巴库将会有一段非常艰难的时间试图击败一个更强大的对手海法马卡比。让我们仔细看看…

的确，相当令人惊讶的是，HJK甚至在第一回合在巴库的比赛中表现得稍微好一些!东道主的防守似乎很脆弱，HJK在下半场罚了他们两次，本可以在比赛中进更多的球。巴库本身并不是一支糟糕的球队，也有一些有技术的球员。他们的两个进球都是出色的个人努力——先是一记远射，然后是赫明·马克穆多夫的精彩任意球，也是远射。然而，对这些进球机会的期望并不高。在赫尔辛基的博尔特体育馆，巴库被HJK 3-0击败。根据投注市场的预测，hkk在90分钟内获胜的机率约为53%。上半场两队踢得相当谨慎，下半场致命的里斯基兄弟摧毁了巴库。就在半场结束后，Riku Riski充分利用了他的机会，为HJK 1-0得分。在此之后，里斯基在禁区内接到穆里罗的一个漂亮传球，为东道主赢得了一个点球。他的哥哥鲁普没有给巴库门将任何机会，最终将比分改写为2-0。巴库的士气受到重创，虽然他们在下半场有一些不错的进球机会，但看起来他们永远无法挑战胜利。在比赛的最后几分钟，鲁普再次得分，将比分改写为3-0。HJK是欧洲最大的球队，在欧洲取得成功并不陌生——他们在2014年的欧罗巴联赛小组赛中踢过球，但自那以后，他们只有一次接近再创辉煌。那是在2015年，阿斯塔纳队(FC Astana)在第二回合比赛的最后阶段以4-3的制胜球晋级小组赛。然而，马卡比海法无疑是比HJK更好的俱乐部，即使是在今晚的巴库，显然也是最受欢迎的俱乐部!巴库最近的五场比赛都没有赢过，几天前在主场和加巴拉打了一场令人失望的平局，得票率为68%。在HJK对阵HJK之前，他们两次以2-1击败第比利斯迪纳摩，但在第比利斯的预期进球方面是最差的球队，在主场，这是一场相当平衡的战斗。

另一方面，马卡比海法首先在格鲁吉亚以2比1击败第比利斯迪纳摩，然后在以色列以5比1击败第比利斯迪纳摩!虽然5-1的进球可能太多了，但以色列确实占据了统治地位。之后，他们以8比2羞辱了法罗群岛的托尔沙文。托尔肖恩当然是一支糟糕的球队，所以我并没有过多地解读这两场比赛。在7月25日，他们也在主场2-0击败了以色列的马卡比特拉维夫队，他们的整体状态非常好。事实上，他们的水平比巴库要好得多!以色列球队经常在客场比赛中表现不佳，但巴库的球迷似乎不是最热情的，尽管有些球迷会脱下球衣庆祝进球等。阿塞拜疆显然不是一个足球文化或传统最好的国家。

最后，让我们也快速地看一下一些数据，以显示Neftci Baku和马卡比海法之间的原始等级的差异。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，马卡比海法的球员总市值为1768万欧元，而巴库的球员市值仅为765万欧元。根据我最近从以色列俱乐部看到的，我认为他们的球队真正的市场价值应该是2500万左右。虽然整个市场团队的球员并不完全反映团队的整体类旧但仍然很好的球员,像金球奖得主卢卡·莫德里奇和意大利传奇和新鲜的欧洲冠军基耶利尼,不如他们真正有价值的当前值在球场上。另一方面，年轻且前途光明的未来明星球员，如曼联的马库斯·拉什福德，21岁的市场价值高于他们目前的水平。然而，球队球员的总市场价值仍然能让我们清楚地知道这支球队有多优秀。