Hull City vs Derby County

Hull host Derby tonight in this Championship Round 3 match at MKM Stadium. This is a battle between too below average teams in the Championship. We have easily won both of picks in the Championship (Fulham -0.5 goals last Saturday and Stoke +0.5 goals) and see value in this match too! Let's take a closer look..

At the start of the season picks are mainly based and pre-season analysis and power ratings that illustrate teams' raw class and we must not react too much on the first two or three matches. During my twenty years of successful professional sports betting I have learned that reacting slower than the betting market at the very start of the season is one of the keys to long-term winning in sports betting. Hull are in the 13th place in my power ratings whereas Derby are rock-bottom. I see more potential in Hull than the betting market or football analysts in general. Derby on the other hand are ranked low also by the betting market but I see them being clearly the worst team in Championship with a decent margin to Peterborough whom I have ranked one place above Derby. They actually lost to Peterborough last week-end 1-2 away from home in a pretty balanced match after Burrows scored 90+1 and then Dembele made it 2-1 for the hosts 90+9. A tough loss to a team they should beat if they want to avoid relegation at the end of the season. This might lower their morale ahead of this this much too.. They lack quality in defense, midfield and offense but I believe defense will turn out to be the biggest issue for them this season and expect Hull to take advantage of their vulnerability in that area today. I think there is a pretty high probability Derby will be relegated to League One for next season despite having some talent in the team - the squad is simply too thin for this level. Also I am not at all convinced by Manchester United legend Wayne Rooney's skills as a manager at this point. In the first round of Championship Derby played a 1-1 home draw versus a below average team Huddersfield as some 44% favorites in another pretty balanced match.

Hull have started the season better than Derby result-wise and have also definitely looked better on the pitch. They were beaten by QPR last Saturday 0-3 and QPR were the better team but certainly not by three goals! I think the betting market over-emphasizes this result offering us a chance to place a value bet on Hull. We must remember QPR are a much better team than Derby and are in sixth place in my power ratings. In the first round of Championship Hull played a very good match away from home beating Preston 4-1 as underdogs. They played very well indeed and had over fifteen scoring attempts whereas Preston had only seven and had 52% ball possession too. I must say the win was too clear in terms of expected goals but it was still an impressive performance and if they can reach the same level today they have an excellent chance of beating Derby tonight!

To sum up, Hull are the better team playing at home and have 57% chance of winning here. Hull -0.5 goals handicap is the pick for my fans.

赫尔城今晚将在 MKM 体育场举行的这场冠军赛第 3 轮比赛中主场迎战德比。这是锦标赛中太低于平均水平的球队之间的战斗。我们轻松赢得了英冠的两个选秀权（上周六富勒姆 -0.5 球和斯托克 +0.5 球），并且在这场比赛中也看到了价值！让我们仔细看看。

在赛季开始时，选秀权主要是基于赛季前的分析和实力评级，以说明球队的原始等级，我们不能对前两三场比赛做出太大反应。在我 20 年成功的职业体育博彩中，我了解到在赛季开始时反应比博彩市场慢是在体育博彩中长期获胜的关键之一。赫尔在我的额定功率中排在第 13 位，而德比则是垫底。我认为赫尔城的潜力更大。另一方面，德比在机构上的排名也很低，但我认为他们显然是最差的球队，我在德比之上排名一位。在伯罗斯得分为 90+1 之后，他们实际上在上周末客场以 1-2 的比分输给了彼得伯勒，随后登贝莱以 90+9 的比分将比分改写为 2-1。如果他们想在赛季结束时避免降级，那么他们就应该击败一支球队。这也可能会降低他们的士气。他们在防守、中场和进攻方面都缺乏素质，但我相信防守将成为他们本赛季最大的问题，并希望赫尔利用他们在这方面的弱点今天。我认为德比队很有可能在下个赛季降级到联赛第一，尽管球队中有一些天赋——球队对于这个级别来说太单薄了。此外，我完全不相信曼联传奇人物韦恩鲁尼在这一点上作为经理的技能。冠军德比首轮主场1-1战平低于平均水平的哈德斯菲尔德队在另一场相当平衡的比赛中成为 44% 的最爱。

赫尔城本赛季的开局比德比的结果要好，而且在球场上的表现也肯定更好。他们在上周六以 0-3 被 QPR 击败，QPR 是更好的球队，但肯定不是三球！我认为博彩市场过分强调这一结果，这为我们提供了对赫尔进行价值投注的机会。我们必须记住 QPR 是一支比德比更好的球队，在我的排名中排在第六位。在英冠首轮比赛中，赫尔在客场打出一场非常精彩的比赛，以4-1 的劣势击败普雷斯顿。他们确实打得很好，有超过 15 次得分尝试，而普雷斯顿只有 7 次，而且控球率也达到了 52%。我必须说这场胜利在预期进球方面太明显了，但这仍然是令人印象深刻的表现，如果他们今天能达到同样的水平，他们今晚击败德比的机会很大！

总而言之，赫尔是更好的球队在主场比赛，在这里获胜的几率为 57%。赫尔城 -0.5 的目标差点是我的选择。