Saint Johnstone VS Galatasaray

The Scottish hosts welcome visitors from Turkey at McDiarmid Park in Perth. The first leg last week was a surprising 1-1 draw in Turkey. The Scots can be extremely happy with the draw as Galatasaray were clearly the better team. Saint Johnstone took the lead after a penalty kick in the second half when Jason Kerr put the ball into the left side of the goal. Galatassaray's captain Fernando Muslera was sent off in the 58th minute but the hosts still managed to make it 1-1 a few minutes later. Had he not taken the red card Galatasaray most likely would have won pretty comfortably. They had over 60% ball possession and created some ten scoring chances whereas the Scots only had a few chances. At individual level Galatasaray's players were without a doubt a lot more skilled than their Scottish opponents. Today I expect a lot especially from the Egyptian center-forward Mostafa Mohamed, 23, who most certainly has the talent the play for even bigger clubs in the future.

Overall Saint Johnstone are not on great shape and have started the Scotland Premiership with two disappointing draws. Last Sunday they played a 1-1 draw at home versus Motherwell as clear favorites. They were the slightly better team on the pitch but struggled to make the most of their scoring chances. Before this match they were also played a 0-0 draw away from home also as pretty clear favorites versus a small club Ross County. They did miss a penalty on the 70th minute but overall lacked offensive creativity and had only two shots on goal. They would have to improve to stand a chance of beating Galatasaray today. The Turkish Super Lig has not started yet but Galatasaray are match fit having played two UEFA Champions League qualification matches versus Dutch PSV who were clearly the better team but were also heavy favorites and are a very good team indeed. Losing to PSV is not anything that surprised me or would worry me ahead of this match. I believe the betting market over-emphasizes the meaning of  the pretty clear defeat the Turkish side suffered in on aggregate - St. Johnstone probably would have lost even more clearly versus the very talented PSV who are often under-valued by the betting market. During the summer Galatasaray have taken two wins in friendly matches beating Kasimpasa 4-2 and Dinamo Bucuresti 2-1. Whilst I do not give lot of emphasis to friendlies it is still to have a few wins on the record.

My probability estimation on Galatasaray, who are a lot stronger by raw class and have played in the Champions League many times in the past, is 57%.