KTP Kotka VS HJK Helsinki

KTP Kotka welcome visitors from the capital city of Helsinki for this Veikkausliiga match on Saturday at Arto Tolsa Areena. Veikkuasliiga is the highest level of Finnish football and I have followed this league for almost thirty years and have been betting on it for some twenty years. I have watched almost all of Veikkuasliiga matches and all of KTP's and HJK's matches this season and I can assure my fans that the difference between these teams is very big! I recommend my fans to take HJK -1.5 goals asian handicap as the probability for this is over 50%. Let's take a look at the reasons behind the pick..

This pick is mainly based on KTP being a horrible bad team for this level and I strongly believe they will relegate at the end of the season to Ykkönen - where they belong. They have won only one match this season and I would not be surprised if they were to never get another win! They have quite a few draws though but in many of these matches they did not really deserve anyhing in terms of expected goals and the way the matches have looked like on the pitch overall. For KTP it is hard to say if defense or lack of offensive skill is the bigger problem at the moment. Their defense has looked vulnerable in almost every match this season. The hosts have had a new head coach (former assistant coach) Spanish Gabriel Xatart for some weeks now and all football fans and expert analysts know a change in this sector normally boosts a team, especially for the one or two matches under the new coach but with KTP this did not happen and and would really need to see a lot more from Xatart to believe KTP have any chance at all of avoiding relegation under him. In their most recent match KTP lost to Lahti 0-3 and despite the difference not being quite that clear on the pitch is was yet another pretty lame performance from KTP. Before that KTP grabbed an undeserved point in Helsinki versus HIFK - the score was 2-2 but HIFK missed a penalty and were clearly the better team overall. Before this KTP played a 0-0 draw versus Haka at home. Haka are a pretty limited team but still dominated the match but lacking offensive talent did not manage to break KTP's surprisingly solid defense. KTP, on the other hand, had very little scoring chances.

How about the visitors then? HJK Helsinki are the "kings" of Finnish football and lead Veikkausliiga by seven points at the moment. They have lost just one match this season - this was versus AC Oulu when they heavily rotated players because of having two very important UEFA Champions League qualification matches before and after facing AC Oulu. I think the market gives too much emphasis to this surprising loss and overestimates the chance HJK wil again rotate heavily. Indeed, we do not know HJK's starting line-up at this point but based on HJK head coach Toni Koskela's comments on the topic HJK will probably start with at least most of their best players as the next match versus Neftchi Baku is on the 12th of this month so there is enough time to recover. The seven points lead to KuPS Kuopio is of course pretty big but Koskela and HJK's players do realize KuPS are a very good team too and in great shape and actually did win Veikkausliiga 2019 so HJK can not drop too many points as there are still quite a few matches to be played in Veikkausliiga. Even if HJK will rest some of their best players in this match, they do have quality players on the bench ready to prove their skills. To the illustrate to difference between the two teams I would say any player in HJK's squad would be a star if he played for KTP..

Once again we should not be fooled by recent results: HJK are in great shape despite not winning a match for a while. They played two excellent matches versus a clearly better team Malmö from Sweden losing 2-1 away from home but with some luck could have grabbed a draw. In the second leg at Bolt Arena in Helsinki they were the better team but Malmö showed their class and were deadly in offense - 2-2 was the final score. Malmo were the better team overall in the two matches but I was still pretty impressed by HJK's ability to truly challenge a lot bigger team. Let's remember Malmö have even played in the Champions League several times - the most recent time was in 2015/16. Well, a fun fact is that HJK have played in the Champions League too but that was back in 1998/99. Seven years ago HJK qualified to the UEFA Europe League and having followed the team even more closely than other Finnish teams I argue that this season their team is even better than back then. On Tuesday HJK played well in Baku in the first leg of UEFA Europe League qualification despite having just a couple of days to prepare for the match and a long trip from Helsinki to Baku. Neftchi Baku were a good team and strong at home and the match was pretty balanced. I must say HJK were better than I expected.

To sum up, KTP will surely fight hard but HJK should be way too strong and very likely win and there is pretty big value at -1.5 goals handicap at current odds!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

KTP Kotka欢迎来自首都赫尔辛基的游客观看本周六在阿尔托尔萨球场举行的Veikkausliiga比赛。维库斯里加是芬兰足球的最高水平，我已经关注这个联赛近30年了，并在这个联赛上下注了大约20年。我看了本赛季几乎所有的维库斯利加的比赛，KTP和HJK的比赛，我可以向我的球迷保证，这两支球队之间的差异是非常大的!我建议我的球迷选择香港-1.5球的亚洲障碍，因为这个概率超过50%。让我们来看看这一选择背后的原因。

这个选择主要是基于KTP在这个级别上是一个非常糟糕的球队，我坚信他们会在赛季末降级到Ykkönen——他们属于的地方。他们本赛季只赢了一场比赛，如果他们再也赢不了我也不会感到惊讶!虽然他们有不少平局，但在很多比赛中，从预期的进球和比赛在球场上的整体表现来看，他们真的不应该得到任何东西。对于KTP来说，现在很难说防守还是进攻技能的缺乏是更大的问题。在本赛季的几乎每一场比赛中，他们的防守看起来都很脆弱。东道主西班牙人加布里埃尔·萨塔特的新主教练(前助理教练)已经上任几周了，所有球迷和专家分析人士都知道，这一领域的变化通常会促进球队的发展，特别是在新教练的一到两场比赛中，但是对于KTP来说，这种情况并没有发生，我们真的需要从Xatart身上看到更多的东西，才能相信KTP在他的带领下有任何避免降级的机会。在最近的一场比赛中，KTP 0-3输给了拉赫蒂，尽管在球场上差距不是很明显，但KTP的表现还是很差劲。在那之前，KTP队在赫尔辛基对阵HIFK队的比赛中不应该拿到一分——比分是2-2，但HIFK罚丢了一个点球，显然是更好的球队。在此之前，KTP在主场与哈卡0:0打平。哈卡是一支相当有限的球队，但仍然统治了比赛，但缺乏进攻天赋，没有设法打破KTP惊人的坚实防守。另一方面，KTP几乎没有得分机会。

那么来客呢?赫尔辛基俱乐部是芬兰足球的“国王”，目前领先维考斯利加7分。他们本赛季只输了一场比赛，那是对阵AC奥卢，因为在对阵AC奥卢之前和之后有两场非常重要的欧冠资格赛，所以他们对球员进行了大量的轮换。我认为市场过分强调了这一意外的损失，高估了HJK再次大幅波动的可能性。事实上,我们不知道HJK的首发阵容在这一点上,但基于HJK主教练托尼Koskela HJK评论的话题可能会开始至少大部分在下一场比赛他们最好的球员和Neftchi巴库是本月12日所以有足够的时间恢复。7分导致kup Kuopio当然是相当大的但是Koskela和HJK球员实现kup也是一个很好的团队,在伟大的形状和确实赢得2019年Veikkausliiga HJK不能下降太多点仍有相当多的比赛是在Veikkausliiga。即使港大会让一些最好的球员在这场比赛中休息，他们也有高质量的球员准备在板凳上证明他们的技术。为了说明这两支球队的不同，我想说的是，hkjk的任何球员，如果他效力于KTP，都是明星。

再一次，我们不应该被最近的结果所愚弄:尽管一段时间没有赢得一场比赛，香港大学的状态很好。他们打了两场精彩的比赛，对手是实力明显更强的瑞典队Malmö。瑞典队客场2-1失利，但如果运气好的话，他们可能会打成平局。在赫尔辛基博尔特球馆的第二回合比赛中，他们是一支更好的球队，但Malmö展示了他们的水平，在进攻上是致命的——2-2是最后的比分。马尔默在这两场比赛中总体上是更好的球队，但我仍然对HJK挑战更大球队的能力印象深刻。让我们记住Malmö甚至参加过几次冠军联赛——最近一次是在2015/16赛季。好吧，有趣的是，HJK也参加过欧洲冠军联赛，但那是在1998/99年。七年前，HJK获得了欧洲足球联盟(UEFA)的资格，并且比其他芬兰球队更密切地跟随球队。我认为，这个赛季他们的球队甚至比当时的球队还要好。周二，尽管只有几天的备战时间和从赫尔辛基到巴库的长途旅行，HJK还是在巴库的欧冠资格赛首回合发挥出色。Neftchi Baku是一支很好的球队，在主场很强大，比赛很平衡。我得说香港机场比我想象的要好。

总而言之，KTP肯定会很努力，但HJK应该太强大了，很有可能赢，在目前的指数下，有-1.5个进球的差距是相当大的价值!