KTP Kotka welcome FC Haka from Valkeakoski to Arto Tolsa Areena in Kotka for an important match for both teams on Monday. Both teams are, as expected before the season, not safe from relegation and desperately need more points and a morale boost. Indeed, KTP and AC Oulu were the two number one favorites to relegate and I must say KTP's poor season as not a surprise at all for me as I ranked, and still rank, them even lower in my power ratings than many other Finnish Veikkausliiga experts. They are currently on the last place with only six points and one win and most importantly I have not seen any signs they would improvement in their game as the season has progressed. The situation for them is worsening instead as other teams, even the ones not fighting for top 6 (Championship Group position), have been able to raise their level.

KTP's only win so far this season actually came versus today's opponents Haka on the 14th of May in Valkeakoski. KTP played a decent match then but the 3-0 win for KTP was most certainly not a deserved one! I watched the match as I have watched almost all Veikkausliiga matches this season and Haka were the better team having 53% possession and clearly more scoring attempts and dangerous attacks. After this match KTP have been going down in terms of overall performance and expected goals statistics whereas Haka have improved and as I have written on previous analyses they are a better team than the standings and especially the most recent results suggest and rate them clearly better than KTP at the moment. They have lost two of their most recent matches 0-1 versus first versus Ilves Tampere and most recently to KUPS Kuopio 0-1. Versus Ilves, who were solid favorites in that match and a lot better team than KTP, Haka easily could have escaped with a draw after a pretty balanced match. KUPS are the second best team in the Veikkausliiga after HJK, so losing to them was nothing to be ashamed of especially after a pretty good fight Haka were able to show despite KUPS being the better team but it was not a one-sided match at all. Earlier this season Haka played a pretty competitive match versus the clearly best team in this league, HJK Helsinki despite losing 1-2 proving there is potential in the team. I do admit that Haka have had problems creating enough scoring chances and especially making the the most of them versus stronger teams but I do strobgly believe their excellent coach, former Tottenham player, Teemu Tainio will be able to prepery his team mentally and most importantly come up with a good match plan to break KTP's defense but still a pretty low-scoring match is pretty probable.

KTP are a bit of a mess and despite being a traditional club here in Finland do not really seem to belong to the highest level of Finnish football. In fact, this pick is mainly based on KTP being such a bad team. Indeed, it is time for Haka to get their "revenge" and beat KTP today in Kotka and prove they are one class better than the hosts and show they deserve to play in in Veikkausliiga next season as well. KTP lack a lot of creativity and quality in offense and I unlike KTP's fans I don't believe new striker Brazilian Tiquinho (loan from HIFK Helsinki) will makes a lot difference. For KTP defense is the bigger problem at the moment - in fact it has looked very vulnerable in almost every match this season. KTP have had a new head coach (former assistant coach) Spanish Gabriel Xatart for two matches now and all football fans and expert analysts know a change in this sector normally boosts a team, especially for the one or two matches under the new coach but with KTP I have not seen this happening.. In their most recent match KTP lost to one of the smaller teams in Veikkausliiga and a very bad team away from home IFK Mariehamn at home 1-3 after horribly bad defending. Before this KTP faced AC Oulu, who are the second worst team in Veikkausliiga, and KTP did manage to grab one point with a 1-1 draw but AC Oulu controlled the match for the most of the time and created more expected goals - and in my opinion would have deserved a win.

To sum up, I see Haka as over 50% favorites and the odds on them are way too high. I recommend my fans to bet on them -0.5 goals.