Atlético de Madrid AH -1 is my bet here.

Alaves (13th) improved in the last weeks, but this team is just too weak and will fight to avoid relegation. They have a short squad, played a game 3 days ago and for sure will be tired. Two key players are out for this match: Tomas Pina (suspended) and Rodrigo Ely (injured), both starters.

They are making many individual mistakes in defense due to lack of concentration. In the last game, they managed to draw 1-1 against Osasuna, but had to score the equalizer at 75’ from penalty while hosts played with 10 players due to red card since 8’.

With only 14 goals scored in 16 games, their attack is also too weak. Their best striker Lucas Perez is out of form while other strikers aren’t in a good moment either.

Atlético Madrid (2nd) is the main reason for this pick. As said in previous bets, they are right now the best spanish team. They are playing great football, full of confidence and motivation to win the title, as they know that this year they have real chances to do it. Lot of players like Carrasco, Correa, Luis Suarez, or Llorente for example are in their best level, in great shape and playing very well.

They have a deep squad, able to play midweek games and then continue being very competitive at the weekend. Also they have a very strong bench with alternatives or possible changes to increase the pressure during the games.

They are fighting for the first position. Right now are second one point below Real Madrid, but with 3 games less played. 11 victories in 14 games and the only team in La Liga who lost just one match (against Real Madrid). Furthermore, they have the best defense in Spain (just 5 goals conceded) and Europe - there isn’t any other team in the big leagues with such low amount of goals conceded so far.

And this isn’t due to luck or rivals. It’s because Atletico is defending almost perfectly, it’s very hard for rivals to create them danger and have real chances, while also in attack they improved a lot in comparison with other years: 27 goals scored in 14 games, almost 2 per game.

I think that Atletico will be motivated to achieve the 1st position again. There’s the risk of the void, as they use to win only by 1 goal playing as visitors. But I think that this bet should be minimum void, as Atletico should win here. Difference is big, in terms of quality, motivation and form.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

阿拉维斯(第13名)在过去几周有所进步，但这支球队太弱了，要努力避免降级。他们的阵容很短，三天前刚打了一场比赛，肯定会累的。两名关键球员将缺席这场比赛:托马斯·皮纳(停赛)和罗德里戈·伊利(受伤)，他们都是首发球员。

由于注意力不集中，他们在防守中犯了很多个人错误。在上一场比赛中，他们1-1战平了奥萨苏纳，但不得不在75分钟用点球扳平比分，而主队在8分钟开始就因为红牌以10人应战。

16场比赛只进了14球，他们的进攻也太弱了。他们最好的前锋卢卡斯·佩雷斯状态不佳，而其他的前锋也不是很好。

马德里竞技(第二名)是这个选择的主要原因。就像之前打赌的那样，他们现在是西班牙最好的球队。他们踢得很好，充满了赢得冠军的信心和动力，因为他们知道今年他们有真正的机会做到这一点。许多球员，比如卡拉斯科、科雷亚、苏亚雷斯或略伦特，都处于最佳状态，状态极佳，踢得非常好。

他们有一支强大的阵容，可以在周中打比赛，然后在周末继续保持很强的竞争力。此外，他们有一个非常强大的替补阵容，可以在比赛期间增加压力。

他们在争取第一名。现在我们比皇家马德里队少打了3场比赛，但落后皇马1分。在14场比赛中取得了11场胜利，是西甲唯一一支只输了一场比赛(对皇家马德里)的球队。此外，他们拥有西班牙最好的防守(只丢了5个球)和欧洲最好的防守——到目前为止，在大联赛中没有任何其他球队的失球率如此之低。

这并不是因为运气或竞争对手。这是因为马竞的防守近乎完美，对手很难给他们制造危险和真正的机会，同时他们在进攻方面也比往年进步了很多:14场比赛进27球，几乎每场2球。

我认为马竞会有动力再次获得第一的位置。这里存在着空洞的风险，因为他们曾经以客队的身份只赢了一个球。但我认为这个赌注应该是最小的无效，因为马竞应该在这里赢。在质量、动机和形式方面，差异是巨大的。