Big value on the hosts 欧冠 阿拉木图vs海马卡比
2021-07-14

Tapio

外籍分析师

欧冠

07/14 22:00

已完赛

解读理由:

FC Kairat Almaty vs Maccabi Haifa

The first leg between Maccabi Haifa from Israel and Kairat Almaty from Kazakhstan ended in a justified 1-1 draw meaning that both teams have fair chance to qualify for the next round of UEFA Champions League qualification. Indeed, it was balanced match at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa but the hosts were perhaps a little closer to winning. The Israelis had 56% ball possession but the Kairat Almaty recorded more scoring attempts. However, it is worth noticing that many of the chances were not very promising. However, typically for international matches in football the home advantage is big in match and the long trip to Kazakhstan Maccabi Haifa have to make increases the advantage slightly compared to a domestic league match. In addition to home advantage another thing favoring the hosts is that fact that the Premier League is in full swing in Kazakhstan whereas the Israeli Ligat ha'Al has not started yet. I do not see any reason why Kairat Almaty would not be solid favorites in today's clash at Almaty Ortalyk Stadion. They are a strong team at home and whilst I'm fully aware of the fact that Premier League is not a super high-level league by international standards their home record can not go unnoticed. They four-game winning streak during which time they have scored convincing fifteen goals. The reigning Kazakhstan Premier League champions did prepare themselves for the second leg in an ideal fashion when Andrey Ulshin secured them narrow 1-0 cup win versus Zhetysu. This result stretched Kairat's undefeated run to ten matches so they are definitely in good form. I recommend my fans to follow hosts' Vagner Love closely today as he is a very experienced and skilled striker. Guinean Jose Kante will hopefully create some problems for the visitors too. A negative thing for Kairat is that they will be missing injured Polish midfielder Jacek Goralski. Otherwise the hosts' manager Kirill Keker should have a full squad to choose the starting eleven from. Visitors will travel to Kazakhstan without centre-back Ofri Afad.

In my power ratings that reflect the teams' raw class Kairat Almaty and Maccabi Haifa are more or less equal and there are financial facts to support that claim: According to the respected and well-known German website Transfermarkt.com that I have mentioned on my previous Champions League qualification match previews, Kairat Almaty's players have a total market value of 21.68 million euros whereas the Maccabi Haifa's players are valued at 19.50 million euros. While the total market of a team's players does not fully illustrate the overall class of a team as older but still very good players, who are already near to the end of their career like C. Ronaldo or the Italian legend and fresh European Champion Giorgio Chiellini, are less valuable than young promising future star players like Manchester United's Marcus Rashford, 23, it still does give us a good overall impression on how good a team should be on the pitch.

To sum up with the big home advantage hosts have almost 50% chance of winning and Kairat Almaty -0.5 is the pick I recommend to my fans. I expect the hosts to be more aggressive today, boosted by their fans, than they were in Israel and control the ball and put a lot of pressure on the visitors. Current odds on the hosts are very lucrative indeed!

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

以色列的海法马卡比和哈萨克斯坦的阿拉木图以1-1战平,这意味着两支球队都有机会进入下一轮的欧冠资格赛。事实上,这场比赛在海法的萨米奥费尔体育场进行,双方势均力敌,但东道主可能离胜利更近了一步。以色列人的控球率为56%,但阿拉木图的得分次数更多。然而,值得注意的是,很多机会都不是很有希望。然而,对于国际足球比赛来说,主场优势是很大的,与国内联赛相比,前往哈萨克斯坦马卡比海法的长途旅行必须使优势略微增加。除了主场优势之外,对东道主有利的另一件事是,英超联赛在哈萨克斯坦正如火如荼地展开,而以色列的利加特还没有开始。我看不出阿拉木图有什么理由在今天的比赛中不被看好。他们在主场是一支强大的球队,虽然我很清楚英超联赛不是一个国际标准的超级联赛,但他们的主场战绩不容忽视。他们四连胜,在此期间他们已经打进了令人信服的15球。这位哈萨克斯坦超级联赛卫冕冠军确实以理想的方式为第二回合做了准备,安德烈·乌尔辛确保他们以1-0险胜哲特苏。这个结果将凯拉特的不败纪录延续到了十场,所以他们的状态绝对不错。我建议我的球迷密切关注东道主的Vagner Love,因为他是一个非常有经验和技术的前锋。几内亚人何塞·坎特也有望给客队制造一些麻烦。对凯拉特来说不利的是他们将失去受伤的波兰中场哥拉尔斯基。否则东道主的主教练Kirill Keker应该有一个完整的阵容来选择首发11人。游客们将在没有中后卫Ofri Afad的情况下前往哈萨克斯坦。

根据我对两支球队的实力评分,阿拉木图和海法马卡比基本持平,而且有一些经济事实支持这一说法:根据著名的德国网站Transfermarkt.com,我在之前的欧冠预选赛中提到过,阿拉木图的球员总市值为2168万欧元,而海法马卡比的球员市值为1950万欧元。虽然球队球员的总体市场并不能完全说明球队的整体级别,但仍然是非常优秀的球员,这些球员已经接近职业生涯的终点,比如c·罗纳尔多或意大利传奇人物、欧洲冠军新人乔治·基耶利尼,虽然没有像曼联23岁的马库斯·拉希福德这样前途无量的新星有价值,但它仍然给我们一个良好的整体印象,让我们知道一支球队在球场上应该有多优秀。

总而言之,主场优势巨大,东道主几乎有50%的胜率,阿拉木图-0.5是我推荐给我的球迷的选择。我预计今天的东道主会在球迷的鼓舞下变得更有侵略性,比在以色列时更有控球能力,给客队施加很大压力。目前对主队的指数确实是非常有利可图的!


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