Legia Warszawa vs Bodø/Glimt

The first leg in UEFA Champions League Qualification match between the big, traditional Polish team Legia Warszawa and Norwegian champions Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion ended 3-2 for the Poles and the result offers them a great chance to advance to the next round of qualification. Indeed, I strongly believe Bodo/Glimt did miss their chance to challenge the better and more experienced in Europe Polish team Legia Warszawa and would really have to be lucky or truly play above their normal level in Poland to win. It was, as expected, a very balanced match last week in Norway and either team could have won. Ball possession was 51% for Legia but Bodo/Glimt had one more scoring attempt and more dangerous attacks. Bodo/Glimt fans supported their team with passion and clearly boosted them to attack even with some risk. As always the home advantage was big but it will be even bigger in Warsaw at Stadion Wojska Polskiego as Legia's fans, especially the ultras (the most enthusiastic fans), are known to be among the best and most passionate in Europe! I do believe the hosts will not fail their fans and whilst a draw would be enough for them to qualify they will surely push for the win and I estimate they have some 53-54% chance to do so. I do rank the Polish team better in every area of the game. Also the season has not yet started in Poland so playing their first competitive match for a long time last week should help the Polish team here. They have played some friendlies during the summer though and achieved good results beating Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk and a 1-1 draw versus a much bigger team Krasnodar from Russia.

The Polish team are in my opinion one class above the visitors and there are some numbers to support this. Let's take a quick look: According to the respected and well-known German website Transfermarkt.com Legia Warszawa's players have a total market value of 25.83 million euros whereas the visitors' players are valued at 12.25 million euros. While the total market of a team's players does not fully reflect the overall class of the team as older but still very good players, like Christiano Ronaldo or the Italian legend and fresh European Champion Chiellini, are less valuable than young promising future star players, it still does tell a lot about how good the team should be on the pitch. Numbers aside, Legia have proved what they can do in Europe in the past. For example in the 2016-17 Champions League they finished third in group stage and were subsequently knocked out of the Europa League by eventual runners-up and a very good team Dutch Ajax Amsterdam. I do admit that their team was perhaps a little better than it is at the moment but there is not a significant difference. But I honestly would say Bodo/Glimt can only dream of making it to the Champions League..

The pick is not only based on Legia being the bigger team and with perhaps even bigger home advantage than the betting market realizes but also on the visitors' pretty mediocre form lately. Indeed, they have won only one of their latest six matches - on the 27th of June they beat Stabaek 4-1 at home. In their most recent match in the Norwegian Elitserien they played a very disappointing draw versus Viking despite being heavy favorites at the odds of around 1.30 to win. They would have to be at their best facing a strong opponent like Legia Warszawa and they simply are not.

To sum up, I believe Legia will prove their class in front of the amazing home fans this Wednesday and pick them to win at clearly too high odds.

在欧冠资格赛的首回合比赛中，波兰人以3-2的比分战胜了挪威冠军博德闪耀，这一结果为波兰人提供了进入下一轮资格赛的绝佳机会。事实上，我坚信博德闪耀确实错过了机会，他们真的需要幸运，或者在波兰踢得比他们正常水平高，才能赢得比赛。不出所料，上周在挪威的比赛非常势均力敌，两队都有可能获胜。华沙军团的控球率是51%，但博德闪耀还有一次得分尝试和更危险的进攻。博德闪耀的球迷用激情支持他们的球队，显然鼓励他们进攻，即使有一些风险。一如既往，主场优势很大，但在华沙的沃伊斯卡波尔斯基戈球场将更大，因为华沙军团的球迷，尤其是那些极端的(最热情的球迷)，被认为是欧洲最好和最热情的球迷之一!我相信华沙军团不会让他们的球迷失望，虽然一场平局足以让他们晋级，但他们肯定会争取胜利，我估计他们有53-54%的机会这样做。此外，本赛季波兰本土联赛还没有开始，所以上周参加他们很长一段时间以来的第一场比赛应该会对波兰队有帮助。他们在夏天打了一些友谊赛，取得了不错的成绩，击败了加耶洛尼亚和列西亚格但斯克，1-1战平了来自俄罗斯的克拉斯诺达尔。

在我看来，波兰队比客队高一级，有一些数据支持这一点。让我们来快速浏览一下:根据德高望重的德国网站Transfermarkt.com的统计，华沙军团的总市值为2583万欧元，而客队球员的市值为1225万欧元。虽然球队球员的整体市场并不能完全反映球队的整体水平，但仍然非常优秀的老球员，如克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多或意大利传奇人物、欧洲冠军新秀基耶利尼，都不如年轻有前途的未来明星球员有价值。它仍然可以告诉我们球队在球场上应该有多好。撇开人数不谈，华沙军团过去已经证明了他们在欧洲的实力。例如，在2016-17赛季的欧洲冠军联赛中，他们在小组赛中排名第三，随后被欧罗巴联赛的亚军和一支非常优秀的荷兰球队阿贾克斯淘汰。我承认他们的球队可能比现在好一点，但没有太大的区别。但老实说，博德闪耀只能梦想着进入冠军联赛。

这个选择不仅是基于联盟是一支更大的球队，也许比市场所意识到的主场优势更大，而且也基于客队最近相当平庸的状态。事实上，他们在最近的六场比赛中只赢了一场——6月27日，他们在主场4-1击败斯塔巴克。在最近的一场挪超n的比赛中，他们与维京队打了一场非常令人失望的平局，尽管他们的获胜指数是1.30左右。他们必须在最好的状态下面对像华沙军团这样强大的对手，而他们根本没有。

总而言之，我相信军团将在本周三主场球迷面前证明他们的实力并获胜。