Boca Juniors vs Atletico Mineiro

Boca Juniors from Argentina face Atletico Mineiro from Brazil at Estadio Alberto J. Armando in Buenos Aires today at an interesting Copa Libertadores play offs match. I'm pretty confident the visitors will take at least a draw here. Let's take a closer look why..

First of all Atletico Mineiro were the best club in the Copa Libertadores group phase grabbing sixteen points in six matches in group H. In their last group phase match on the 26th of May they crushed Deportivo La Guaira from Venezuela 4-0. They were heavy favorites for the match and earned the win after 65% ball possession and creating twenty-six scoring attempts and eleven shots on goal. However, La Guaira had some chances too so perhaps 4-0 is a little too clear a victory but it was still yet another good performance from the strong Brazilian team. Overall they have been in great form lately and are in third place in the very competitive Brazilian Serie A and are in a four match winning-streak. On Saturday last week they visited America MG and won 1-0 after a very balanced match. The away win  was not a surprise as they have played well away from home for a pretty long time now and have won nine after their most recent thirteen competitive matches away from as the visiting team. Before this match Atletico Mineiro beat a traditional big team in Brazil Flamengo 2-1, Cuiaba 1-0, and Atletico GO 4-1 so they have allowed only two goals in four of their latest matches showing very good defensive structure and attitude. They do not dominate the ball in most of their matches but this is not even their strategy especially in away matches so we should not give too much emphasis on the ball possession statistics from their latest matches. I expect them to defend hard in today's match in Argentina and be more aggressive in offense in the second leg at home. A  low-scoring match is expected and the probability of a draw is higher than in most football matches. 

How about Boca Juniors then? The pick is in fact more more based on their poor form than in Atletico Mineiro's being in terrific form. The traditional big club from Argentina did take an easy win at home versus The Strongest from Bolivia in the last group phase match. They were the better team for sure but were also below 1.20 odds favorites in this match and I would not give this result too much emphasis. Boca Juniors finished second in their group and overall today's opponents from Brazil were definitely better in the group stage of this year's Copa Libertadores. Overall the are in poor form having won only one of their latest seven matches in 90 minutes. In their most recent match they lost to Racing Club after penalties as pretty clear favorites. Overall they were slightly the better team though. This match took place on the 31st of May and Boca Juniors have not played after that. Not an ideal preparation for this tough match for sure. Carlos Tevez has also left them which is of course not a positive thing at all. He is not the great player he used to be when playing for Manchester United in the past but he was still a leader and good striker.

To sum up, the Brazilian visitors are the better team of these two and in better form and match-fit. My pick for my fans is Atletico Mineiro +0.5 goals with high probability of winning.