Dinamo Zabreb vs Valur Reykjavik

The difference between these two teams is absolutely huge and I expect odds to drop before the kickoff. Let's start with some numbers provided by a respected German website Transfermarkt.com: Dinamo Zagreb's players have an estimated market value of 138.50 million euros, whereas Valur Reykjavik's team is valued at only 2.95 million euros. Of course these number do not fully reflect a team's overall level as older players of course are not as valuable as young promising players. For example Italy's national team legends Chiellini and Bonucci do not have a market value that would reflect their current level as both are close to the end of their career. However, in general a team's players' total market value does give us a pretty realistic picture of a team's overall class.

Dinamo Zagreb are of course not an absolute top team like Liverpool or Chelsea in European football but have qualified for the Champions League many times in recent years and whilst they have never advanced from the group stage they have occasionally played competitive matches versus very good teams! For example in 2019 they even beat Italian Atalanta 4-0 in Zagreb and let's remember Atalanta only lost in the semi-finals to the French giant PSG 1-2 in Lisbon July 14 2020 after PSG scored two very late goals. For last season Dinamo Zagreb did not qualify for Champions League but once again played very well and did not lose a single match in Europa League group phase where their opponents were a lot better teams than Valur Reykjavik. In the knockout phase they managed to beat English Tottenham 3-0 in the second leg advancing to the quarter-finals but lost to Villareal 1-3 on aggregate. They were not dominated even against Villareal who, as some of my fans probably remember, beat Manchester United to win Europa League!

The only considerable negative thing for the Croats is that their league has not started yet while the season is in full swing in Iceland. However, this is a very important match for both teams and I believe the hosts will be mentally and physically ready to dominate the match! It is also worth noticing Strikers Bruno Petković and Mario Gavranović are not yet match ready after returning from international duty. They are been included in the squad for the both qualifying legs but Dinamo Zagreb coach Damir Krznar has confirmed that they won't play today's match. François Moubandje will be absent from the first game too and Sadegh Moharrami is a long-term absentee and is not expected back until August. The betting market probably over-estimates the meaning of these absentees as the hosts do have enough quality players to choose from. In their most recent match Dinamo Zagreb beat a middle of the table Russian team FK Rostov 2-1 in an away match Menalo and Stojanovic being the goal scorers.

How about the Icelandic team then? Icelandic football as whole has been on the rise during the past ten years and most of us remember Iceland beating England in EURO 2016 2-1. However, all the best Icelandic players play abroad, many of them in the UK and the level of the Icelandic Pepsideild (highest level in Iceland) is not great to put it in a polite way.. Valur's best achievement came in 2018-2019 Europa League qualifiers when they reached third round but normally they do worse. I have seen some of their matches against other European clubs in recent years and am fully aware how limited they are.

To sum up, hosts should be superior here and the chance for them to win by at least two goals is about 75% so the odds of 1.45 offer nice value. The hosts will not be satisfied in one goal lead as this is the first leg and Iceland in front of passionate home fans is not an easy place to play at in the second leg.

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这两支球队之间的差异绝对是巨大的，我预计在开球前赔率就会下降。让我们从德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com提供的一些数据开始:萨格勒布迪纳莫球员的市值估计为1.385亿欧元，而雷克雅未克的球队市值仅为295万欧元。当然，这些数字并不能完全反映球队的整体水平，因为老球员当然不如有前途的年轻球员有价值。例如，意大利国家队的传奇人物基耶利尼和博努奇的市场价值不能反映他们目前的水平，因为他们都接近职业生涯的结束。然而，总的来说，球队球员的市场价值确实能让我们对球队的整体职业有一个相当真实的了解。

萨格勒布迪纳摩当然不是一支绝对的顶级球队，就像利物浦或切尔西一样，但在最近几年他们已经多次获得了欧洲冠军联赛的资格，虽然他们从未从小组赛中晋级，但他们偶尔会和非常优秀的球队打比赛!例如，2019年，他们甚至在萨格勒布以4-0击败了意大利的亚特兰大，让我们记住，亚特兰大在半决赛中只是在2020年7月14日在里斯本以1-2输给了法国巨人巴黎圣日耳曼，因为巴黎圣日耳曼在最后时刻进了两个球。上个赛季，萨格勒布迪纳摩虽然没有晋级欧冠，但再次表现出色，在欧冠小组赛阶段没有输掉一场比赛，他们的对手比雷克雅未克强得多。淘汰赛阶段，他们在第二回合以3-0击败了英国热刺，晋级四分之一决赛，但总比分1-3输给了比利亚雷亚尔。他们甚至在对阵比利亚雷亚尔时也没有被统治，我的一些球迷可能还记得，比利亚雷亚尔击败了曼联，赢得了欧联杯!

对于克罗地亚人来说，唯一相当不利的是他们的联赛还没有开始，而这个赛季在冰岛正如火如荼地进行着。然而，这对两队来说都是一场非常重要的比赛，我相信东道主将在精神上和身体上准备好主宰比赛!同样值得注意的是，前锋布鲁诺Petković和马里奥Gavranović从国际比赛归来后还没有准备好比赛。他们已经入选了两轮预选赛的大名单，但是萨格勒布迪纳莫教练克兹纳尔已经确认他们不会参加今天的比赛。François穆班杰也将缺席第一场比赛，而穆哈拉米将长期缺席，预计到8月份才会回来。博彩市场可能高估了这些缺席球员的意义，因为东道主确实有足够多的高质量球员可供选择。在最近的一场比赛中，萨格勒布迪纳莫在客场比赛中以2-1击败了俄罗斯队FK罗斯托亚诺维奇。

冰岛队呢?冰岛足球在过去的十年里一直在上升，我们大多数人都记得冰岛在2016年欧洲杯上以2-1击败英格兰。然而，所有最好的冰岛球员都在国外踢球，其中很多在英国，冰岛最高水平的Pepsideild(冰岛最高水平)说得客气点并不是很好。沃勒最好的成绩是在2018-2019年欧罗巴联赛资格赛上，当时他们进入了第三轮，但通常情况下他们表现更差。我最近几年看了一些他们和其他欧洲俱乐部的比赛，我完全明白他们是多么的有限。

总而言之，东道主在这里应该更胜一筹，他们以至少两个球的优势获胜的几率约为75%，所以1.45的赔率提供了很好的价值。东道主不会满足于一个球的领先优势，因为这是第一回合，冰岛在热情的主场球迷面前在第二回合的比赛不是一个容易的地方。