In my opinion Paraguay have really good chances to make good result in today's match up.

In past Paraguay played 53 matches against Peru and they avoided loss 37 times. I believe they are able to continue this good streak today as well.

Both teams without any new important absences today so their line ups should look exactly the same like in previous game.

I don't understand these odds. In my opinion Paraguay played much better than Peru in this tournament so far. Paraguay already faced two title contenders (Argentina and Uruguay). Of course, they lost twice 0:1, but in both matches they looked very well. They lost 0:1 against Argentina, but they had more shots in that game and finished with higher ball possession. They lost 0:1 against Uruguay and they conceded a goal from penalty kick. They won against Bolivia and Chile - two fully deserved wins with 2 goals margin each.

On the other hand Peru won two matches - against poor Venezuela and they won against Colombia, but that wasn't deserved result at all. Colombia had higher expected goals scored number in that match (1.66 against 1.00). Peru luckily avoided loss against Ecuador (2:2). Ecuador leaded 2:0 at one stage and had much bigger expected goals scored number. Peru faced one title contender - Brazil - and they lost badly 0:4.

Numbers not laying - Peru defensive formation is worse in comparison to Paraguay defensive formation. They conceded already 7 goals, but they should concede more (expected goals conceded: 8.25). Paraguay conceded only 3 goals (expected goals conceded: 4.38). Both teams are on similar level upfront as both teams scored 5 goals so far, but according to the expected goals scored model Paraguay should score more goals (7.05 against 5.90).

I trust for Paraguay here and +0 or +0.25 AH looks like very good bet here.

在我看来，巴拉圭有很好的机会在今天的比赛中取得好成绩。

过去巴拉圭与秘鲁交手53场，37次没有输球。我相信他们今天也能够继续保持这种良好的势头。

两支球队今天都没有任何新的重要缺席，所以他们的阵容应该和上一场比赛完全一样。

我不明白本场的指数。在我看来，到目前为止，巴拉圭在这场比赛中的表现要比秘鲁好得多。巴拉圭已经和两个冠军争夺者（阿根廷和乌拉圭）有过交手。当然，他们以0:1输掉了两场比赛，但在两场比赛中，他们看起来都非常出色。他们以 0:1 输给了阿根廷，但他们在那场比赛中有更多的射门机会，并且以更高的控球率结束。 0:1输给乌拉圭，点球失球。他们赢得了对玻利维亚和智利都取得了——而且是当之无愧的胜利，每场都以 2 球的优势获胜。

另一方面，秘鲁赢了两场比赛——对阵实力较弱的委内瑞拉，他们赢了对阵哥伦比亚，但那根本不是应得的结果。哥伦比亚在那场比赛中的预期进球数更高（1.66 比 1.00）。秘鲁幸运地避免了对厄瓜多尔的输球（2:2）。厄瓜多尔上一场以 2:0 领先，并且有更大的预期进球数。秘鲁面对冠军争夺者 - 巴西 - 他们以 0:4 惨败。与巴拉圭的防守阵型相比，秘鲁的防守阵型更差。他们已经丢了 7 个球，但他们应该丢更多球（预期失球数：8.25）。巴拉圭仅失3球（预期失球数：4.38）。两支球队的前期水平相似，因为到目前为止两支球队都打进了 5 个进球，但根据预期进球模型，巴拉圭应该进球更多（7.05 比 5.90）。

本场我更加看好巴拉圭不败。