HIGH CONFIDENCE 10/10
2021-07-02

Daniel

外籍分析师

欧预赛

07/03 03:00

已完赛

比利时
1:0
意大利
解读理由:

Belgium is having results above what they deserved, they have 4 wins in 4 games but from game to game they are playing worse. Their best game was the 1st against Russia where they won 3-0 and controlled the whole game and their worst game was the last game against Portugal where they conceded 24 shots. In the middle from these 2 games they played against the strong Denmark and were being dominated by Denmark. Denmark started that game so well scoring at the 2nd minute by Poulsen and in the whole game made 22 shots, but on the 2nd half Roberto Martinez decided to put Kevin de Bruyne and Eden Hazard in play and everything changed. Eden hazard assisted the 2nd goal and Kevin de Bruyne assisted the 1st goal and score the 2nd by an amazing shot. The last game of the groups was against Finland, but this game is a bit different as Finland needed to draw atleast to get qualified with 4 points and Belgium already qualified rotated almost the whole team and played with the second XI, they won and was really deserved against a Finland that wasn't only defending like they usually did. The last game against Portugal was really hard for Belgium, they have won 1-0 and against a Portugal that plays really bad and is a team that only plays in reaction as Portugal just started to assume more the game when they were losing already 1-0, but Belgium conceded 24 shots for Portugal and after the injury of Kevin de Bruyne Portugal controlled more the game and was a bit easier for Renato Sanches to dominate the whole midfield. For this game they have 2 injured player that will miss the game for sure, Mignolet and Castagne and the 2 best players are in doubt, Eden Hazard and Kevin de Bruyne and atleast KDB I don't think he can play today as he suffered a very dangerous tackle by Joao Palhinha. This Belgium plays really bad in my opinion and if these 2 players don't play I cannot see Belgium winning this game against a strong and the most equilibrated team of the Euro 2020. If they don't play they will be replaced by Carrasco and Mertens that in my opinion are so much worse than both, specially Mertens that is not the same like 4-5 years ago when he played for Napoli with Sarri. They will try a lot to play with the physique of Romelu Lukaku, the strong striker that was the Serie A's MVP and if Belgium wins the Euro 2020 can fight for Ballon d'Or, but I don't think that he can carry the team without KDB and Hazard.

Probable line-up: Courtois; Meunier - Alderweireld - Vertonghen - Vermaelen - Thorgan Hazard; Witsel - Tielemans; Carrasco - Mertens and Lukaku.

Italy is being the best team so far of this Euro 2020. They are so equilibrated and are very good defensively and offensively. If we consider this game against Austria a win they have 12 wins in a row, this is amazing. At the group phase they were for sure the best team, with 3 clear wins, it felt like a ride for them. They started with the 3-0 win against Turkey where they dominated the whole game and just could score the 1st goal on the 2nd half with an own-goal by Demiral. Then dominated Switzerland and it was a different domination compared from what they did against Turkey, they controlled this game so easy even without having the ball, always prepared to recover the game and make fast counters. The last game was against Wales and they rotated a lot of players, same as Belgium, as they were already qualified and deserved to win the game by creating more than 3 clear chances to score. Their hardest game was the last one against Austria that prepared the game perfectly to face Italy. In the first half, they played very well by dominating Austria and created a lot of chances, but as they were failing too many chances they started to be a bit nervous and then on the 2nd half Austria started to play with that pressure on Italy and started to took the control of the game and Italy was really lucky with 2 disallowed goals for Austria. But I think the win was fair for Italy if we have a look at the whole campaign they are doing so far. For this game I think they will over play Belgium, as the most important pieces of Italy is the strong midfield they have with Barella, Jorginho and Verratti will have superiority as Belgium plays only with 2 midfielders (Witsel and Tielemans). Mertens will try a lot of times to be the 3rd midfield but will feel a lot of difficulties to play on that space, it could be sorted out with KDB as he can control that space in the midfield alone. Concluding, Italy is better team offensively, individually is better too as Belgium is without their 2 best players and specially because of Belgium absences we need to make this bet. An amazing new is that probably Mancini will put Chiesa instead of Berardi because of the bad game that Berardi made against Austria. Seems that this conflict is over and Chiesa will make everything to win his place on the main XI.

Probable line-up: Donnarumma; Lorenzo - Bonucci - Chiellini - Spinazzola; Verratti - Jorginho - Barella; Insigne - Chiesa - Immobile.


比利时的表现超出了他们的正常水平,他们在 4 场比赛中取得了 4 场胜利,但他们的表现都越来越差。他们最好的一场比赛是对阵俄罗斯的第一场比赛,他们以 3-0 取胜并控制了整场比赛,而他们最差的一场比赛是对阵葡萄牙的最后一场比赛,他们被对手射门 24 次。在这两场比赛的中,加上对阵强大的丹麦,都被对手控制了节奏。丹麦队在第 2 分钟由波尔森开场得分非常好,在整场比赛中射门 22 次,但在第 下半场罗伯托马丁内斯决定让凯文德布劳内和伊登阿扎尔上场,一切都改变了。阿扎尔助攻第2球,凯文-德布劳内助攻第1球,并以惊人的射门打进第2球。小组赛最后一场比赛是对阵芬兰,但这场比赛有点不同,芬兰至少需要至少4分才能获得出线资格,而比利时已经出线,全队轮换但他们赢了。上一场对阵葡萄牙的比赛对比利时来说真的很艰难,因为葡萄牙在落后的情况下控制了比赛的节奏,比利时被对手完成了24次射门,凯文·德布劳内受伤后葡萄牙,让雷纳托·桑切斯上场更容易统治整个中场。对于这场比赛,他们有 2 名受伤的球员肯定会错过比赛,Mignolet 和 Castagne,还有 2 名最好的球员有出战存疑,Eden Hazard 和 Kevin de Bruyne 。至少德布劳内我认为他今天不会出场,因为他遭受了Joao Palhinha 非常危险的铲球。在我看来,这支比利时队的表现非常糟糕,如果这两名球员不参加比赛,比利时就很难获胜。他们将被卡拉斯科和默滕斯取代,在我看来,他们比这两人都差得多,特别是默滕斯,这与 4-5 年前他与萨里一起为那不勒斯效力时不一样。他们会努力利用好罗梅卢·卢卡库的身体,这位曾是意甲MVP的强大前锋,如果比利时赢得2020年欧洲杯,他有机会可以争夺金球奖,但我认为他能在缺少德布劳内的情况下带队取胜。

到目前为止,意大利是 2020 年欧洲杯上最好的球队。他们非常平衡,防守和进攻都非常出色。如果我们认为对阵奥地利的比赛是一场胜利,他们已经连续 12 场获胜,这真是太棒了。在小组赛阶段,他们肯定是最好的球队,3 场非常精彩的胜利,这对他们来说非常轻松。他们开局以 3-0 战胜土耳其,他们在整场比赛中占据主导地位,并且在下半场凭借德米拉尔的乌龙球打进了第一个进球。然后统治了瑞士,与他们对土耳其的统治相比,这是一种不同的统治,即使没有球,他们也能轻松控制这场比赛,随时准备恢复比赛并进行快速反击。上一场比赛是对阵威尔士,他们轮换了很多球员,和比利时一样,因为他们已经获得了资格,理应赢得比赛,创造了超过 3 次明显的得分机会。他们最艰难的比赛是对阵奥地利的比赛,为比赛做好了完美的准备意大利。上半场,他们打得很好,统治了奥地利,创造了很多机会,但由于错失太多机会,他们开始有点紧张,然后在下半场奥地利开始对意大利施加压力,开始控制了比赛,意大利真的很幸运,奥地利的进球没有作数。但我认为,如果我们看看他们迄今为止所做的整个竞选活动,这场胜利对意大利来说是公平的。对于这场比赛,我认为他们会超过比利时,因为意大利最重要的部分是他们拥有巴雷拉的强大中场,若日尼奥和维拉蒂将占据优势,而比利时只有两名中场球员(维特塞尔和蒂勒曼斯)。默滕斯会尝试为第三中场,但依然会有很多困难,这只能是依靠德布劳内来解决,因为他可以单独控制中场的空间。总结,意大利队在进攻端更好,个人能力也更强,比利时缺少了他们最好的两名球员。一个惊人的新消息是,由于贝拉尔迪对阵奥地利的比赛表现不佳,曼奇尼可能会让基耶萨登场。预测意大利不败。

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