This could easily be the most confident pick I’ve had in June 2021 and the obviousness of it also makes it a bit concerning, if you know what I mean.

If you’ve watched and followed Denmark at this EURO’20, you’d agree they’ve been the unluckiest side in the tournament. They deserved better in both of their games, against Finland (0-1) and Belgium (1-2), yet ended up with 0 points.

The only compensation for all the suffering is the realistic chance of progressing through to play-offs. Almost everything is still in Danish “hands” as they must beat Russia and hope Finland loses to unmotivated Belgium. The latter scenario is not written in stone and could throw a plot twist to all public expectations, but neither Denmark or Russia will be looking at the scoreline of Belgian game, while they play it out in Copenhagen.

Home pitch and wild support is a big factor on Monday, though, it hasn’t helped Denmark take anything from opening 2 fixtures. This will be the first away game for Russia at the tournament - they faced Belgium and Finland in St.Petersburg.

Leaving Denmark aside, the main triggering moment for my pick is Russia’s woeful condition. They’ve been nothing short of disappointing so far, losing fair and square to Belgium (0-3) and then struggling immensely against a modest Finland side. On the widely popular xG Russia had not prevailed over Finland, recording 1.0 - 0.9 result on the well known metrics. On 0-0 scoreline FInland not only had a goal ruled out for a minimal offside, but also failed to convert a 1 v 1 run and one more strong scoring chance.

Russia once again was too slow in everything, from off the ball movement to decisions when in possession. To make things worse, the team is hit by a few injuries at the back - important fullback Fernandes is expected to sit this game out with various chest and spine bruises after a terrible fall in the previous match. Central defender Kudryashov is coming from an injury of his own. Another defender Semenov is off form as well as first choice keeper Shunin - both had a “blast” against Belgium and went straight to the bench afterwards. Inexperienced and young keeper Safonov and centre-back Diveev, the goalkeeper has just 2 caps for the National Team and Diveev 2 starts in non-friendly fixtures, have now taken over and nobody can guarantee they are going to pass the big test in Copenhagen.

Over the years every time Russia found itself in a situation where the draw was enough to take them through, they fell into a psychological hole, forgetting all about football and thinking only about defending the 0-0 result from the first whistle. This is not the path to success against furious and ultra motivated Denmark. Hosts should simply roll Russia in the ground and get a confident and deserved win.

这很容易成为我在 2021 年 6 月最有信心的选择。

如果你在欧洲杯上观看并关注了丹麦，你会同意他们是欧洲杯中最不幸的球队。他们在对阵芬兰 (0-1) 和比利时 (1-2) 的两场比赛中都理应获得更好的成绩，但最终只以 0 分结束。

对所有痛苦的唯一补偿是进入淘汰赛的。主动权依然在丹麦“手中”，他们必须击败俄罗斯并希望芬兰输给没有动力的比利时。后一种情况不是一成不变的，可能会达不到预期，但丹麦或俄罗斯都不会关注比利时比赛的比分，他们将在哥本哈根进行比赛。

主场因素和球迷的支持是一个重要因素，但这并没有帮助丹麦从前两场比赛中获得任何好处。这将是俄罗斯的第一场客场的比赛，他们之前在圣彼得堡面对比利时和芬兰。

撇开丹麦不谈，我选择丹麦的主要原因是俄罗斯的糟糕表现。到目前为止，他们一直令人失望，他们输给了比利时（0-3），然后在对阵芬兰遭遇到了很大的抵抗。在预期进球数据上，俄罗斯并没有好于芬兰。在 0-0 的阶段，芬兰因越位被吹掉了，在后面的比赛中未能把握扳平比分的得分机会。

俄罗斯在所有方面都太慢了，从无球运动到控球。更糟糕的是，球队受到了一些伤病的打击——重要的后卫费尔南德斯在上一场比赛中严重摔倒后，预计将因胸部和脊柱瘀伤而缺席这场比赛。中后卫库德里亚绍夫自己也受伤了。另一名后卫谢苗诺夫是以及首选门将舒宁状态不佳 - 两人都在对比利时的比赛出现了失误，然后直接坐在替补席上。现在只能派上经验不足的年轻门将萨福诺夫和中后卫迪维耶夫，这位守门员只为国家队出场 2 次，迪维耶夫 2 次在非友谊赛中首发，没有人能保证他们会在哥本哈根经受如此重大的考验。

多年来，每当俄罗斯发现自己处于平局足以让他们渡过难关的境地时，他们就会陷入心理困境，只考虑以 0-0 的比分进行防守。这不是对抗超级积极的丹麦的成功之路。主队丹麦应该会取得一场轻松的胜利。