Montpellier Hérault SC VS LOSC Lille

Montpellier host Lille for this French Ligue 1 round 13 battle at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the 5th-best league on the planet. A match of mediocre quality by this league's standard's is on the cards here. The main reason for this is the substantial difference in class between the two teams.. Indeed, Montpellier have not won any of the last 12 games between these two teams! Most importantly, we have a very lucrative betting opportunity here! I will be posting many more high-quality picks on Sunday ! Firstly,I want to mention that Montpellier have been terrible this season! They have lost 9/11 of their last matches and have allowed a whopping 32 goals in Ligue 1. They are in last place with an almost hilariously low seven points to their in their pocket.. It's important to realize that their number of expected points (xPTS) is not much bigger! They should have some potential for improvement but at the moment it's impossible to write anything positive about their game.. They have scored only 11 goals - which is the lowest number in this league. With the expected lineups, even taking the home advantage into account, Lille are very clear favourites here. Odds of close to 1.80 are widely available on the betting market. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based expert analysis, Lille have a 62% chance of taking all three points!

According to my sources Montpellier have a poor team spirit at the moment.. This is hardly a surprise. In their last game they lost to a pretty limited newly-promoted team, St. Etienne, 0-1 on the road. The host recorded more shots on goal – both teams had 11 goal attempts. St. Etienne generated more in expected goals (xG) - 1.66-0.84 to be precise. Before this, Montpellier played quite well though, defeating Brest 3-1 at home. However, Brest had close to 70% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts and shots off target – 12-3. Montpellier did manage two more shots on goal though.. Prior to beating Brest, in round 10,  Montpellier were lame, losing to Le Havre 0-1 away from home. The xG numbers were 2.36-0.83 in the hosts' favour! In round 9, Montpellier suffered an embarrassing 0-3 defeat to Toulouse at home!  Montpellier generated only a very low 0.24 in xG. Their player, T. Savanier, was sent off in the 51st minute but the score was already 0-3 at the time of the red card.. In round 8 Montpellier were even worse, losing 0-5 to Marseille at home! In round 7 Montpellier lost 2-4 to Reims, generating only 0.45 in xG. The hosts managed 2.95.

At the moment Lille are of totally different caliber compared to Montpellier. They are also a much bigger club in terms of players'  estimated total market value, according to  Transfermarkt.com. Lille even play in the UEFA Champions League league phase this season!  They have taken 10 points in the UCL and are in 12th place in this league with a total of 36 clubs! Lille's number of xPTS is smaller though.. They play pretty defensive - sometimes even a bit boring - football. Their score difference is 7:5 in the Champions League, after five games.. They should, however, have enough skill and speed to break the leaky Montpellier defence. In the Ligue 1 Lille are in 4th place with a fine 22 points They have scored 19 goals and have allowed 11 goals. However, their number of xG is bigger than 19. Lille have not lost any of their last 13 games and must be sky-high in confidence. Yes, Lille have had some luck on their side in the last couple of  months but any team that are unbeaten in 13 games have most probably been somewhat lucky in some games at least.. They have now won two games in a row. On Wednesday they beat Bologna on the road, as pretty clear underdogs on the betting market. They, however, recorded many more goal attempts and shots on goal. The xG numbers were 2.34-1.55 in Lille's favour. Bologna were not at their best though. Before this Lille beat Rennes at home – 1-0 was the final score. It was a rather defensive and uneventful game.. Indeed, Lille had just two shots on goal – which was still one more than Rennes.. The xG numbers were 0.55-0.36 in Lille's favour. Before this Lille were only mediocre, despite taking a point from Nice though a 2-2 draw on the road. The hosts had more goal attempts and shots off goal. The xG numbers were 2.22-1.78 in Nice's favour

In the UCL round 4 Lille took a point from Juventus at home. The Italian visitors, who are of course. one of the biggest teams in Serie A, generated more in xG - 1.77-0.73 to be precise. In round 9 Lille were terrific, especially defensively, beating Lens 2-0 on the road. Lens were priced around 2.10 to win but Lille generated 1.97 in xG – Lens managed 1.08. In round 3 of the Champions League Lille took a surprising 3-1 win over a strong Spanish team, Atletico Madrid, in Spain. Lille were priced around 7.00 to win on the betting market. "Atleti" did generate more in xG though.. In round 2 of the Champions League Lille defended extremely well, beating the reigning champions of Europe, Real Madrid 1-0 at home. Real played worse than usual in this game though. It was still a great win for Lille!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

蒙彼利埃VS里尔洛斯克

蒙彼利埃主机里尔这法甲第一回合13战斗在施塔德de la Mosson蒙彼利埃周日晚上北京时间。这是世界上排名第五的联盟。按照这个联盟的标准，一场质量一般的比赛是有可能的。造成这种情况的主要原因是两队在班级上的巨大差异。事实上，蒙彼利埃在这两支球队之间的最近12场比赛中没有赢过一场！最重要的是，我们有一个非常有利可图的赌博机会！我将在周日发布更多高质量的精选！首先，我想说的是蒙彼利埃本赛季的表现很糟糕！他们最近输掉了9场比赛，在法甲丢了32个球。他们排在最后，他们的口袋里只有7分。重要的是要意识到它们的期望值（xPTS）并没有大得多！他们应该有一些改进的潜力，但目前还不可能对他们的比赛做出任何积极的评价。他们只进了11个球，这是联赛中最少的。考虑到预期的阵容，即使考虑到主场优势，里尔在这里也是非常明显的热门。接近1.80的赔率在博彩市场上随处可见。根据我老练的，以数据为基础的专家分析，里尔队有62%的机会拿到全部三分！

根据我的消息来源，蒙彼利埃目前的团队精神很差。这并不令人意外。在上一场比赛中，他们客场0-1输给了实力相当有限的新晋球队圣艾蒂安。东道主的射门次数更多——两队都有11次射门尝试。圣艾蒂安创造了更多的预期进球（xG）——准确地说是1.66-0.84。在此之前，蒙彼利埃踢得相当不错，在主场3-1击败了布雷斯特。然而，布雷斯特有接近70%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球尝试和射门——12比3。不过蒙彼利埃又射了两脚。在第10轮击败布雷斯特之前，蒙彼利埃表现不佳，客场0-1输给勒阿弗尔。对东道主有利的xG数字是2.36-0.83 ！在第9轮，蒙彼利埃在主场以0比3尴尬地输给了图卢兹！蒙彼利埃在xG中仅产生了非常低的0.24。他们的球员T.萨瓦尼尔在第51分钟被罚下，但在出示红牌时比分已经是0-3了。在第8轮的比赛中，蒙彼利埃的情况更糟，他们在主场0-5不敌马赛！在第7轮比赛中，蒙彼利埃以2-4输给兰斯，全场仅产生0.45分。东道主取得了2.95分。

现在里尔和蒙彼利埃的实力完全不同。根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，就球员的估计总市值而言，他们也是一家大得多的俱乐部。里尔甚至参加了本赛季的欧冠联赛阶段！他们在欧冠联赛中拿到了10分，在这个联赛中排名第12位，总共有36家俱乐部！里尔的xPTS数量更少。他们踢的是非常防守的足球，有时甚至有点无聊。五场比赛之后，他们在欧冠的比分差距是7:5。然而，他们应该有足够的技术和速度来突破蒙彼利埃的防线。在法甲联赛中，里尔积22分排名第四，他们进了19球，丢了11球。但是，他们的xG数量大于19。里尔在过去的13场比赛中没有输过一场，他们一定充满了信心。是的，里尔在过去的几个月里运气不错，但是任何一支在13场比赛中保持不败的球队都很可能至少在某些比赛中运气不错。他们现在已经连赢两场了。周三，他们客场击败了博洛尼亚，在博彩市场上，博洛尼亚显然处于劣势。然而，他们记录了更多的射门尝试和射门。xG的数字是2.34-1.55，里尔队获胜。博洛尼亚并没有处于最佳状态。在此之前，里尔主场1-0击败雷恩是最终比分。这是一场相当守势和平淡无奇的比赛。实际上，里尔只有2次射门，比雷恩多1次。xG值为0.55-0.36，对里尔有利。在此之前，里尔表现平平，尽管客场2-2逼平了尼斯的一分。东道主有更多的进球尝试和射门。对尼斯有利的xG值是2.22-1.78

在欧冠联赛第4轮，里尔在主场从尤文图斯那里取了一分。意大利游客，他们当然是。意甲最强的球队之一，在xG上的得分更高——准确地说是1.77-0.73。在第9轮，里尔表现非常出色，尤其是在防守端，客场2:0击败了朗斯。l

ens的定价在2.10左右，但里尔在xG的价格为1.97，而Lens的价格为1.08。在欧洲冠军联赛的第三轮比赛中，里尔出人意料地以3-1击败了西班牙强队马德里竞技。在博彩市场上，里尔的价格在7英镑左右。“竞技”确实在xG中产生了更多。在欧冠联赛的第二轮比赛中，里尔的防守非常出色，在主场1-0击败了欧洲卫冕冠军皇家马德里。皇马在这场比赛中表现得比平时差。这对里尔来说仍然是一场伟大的胜利！