The xG-stats lie quite a lot in in the GER - FRA game, as you remember that it does take into account own goals, disallowed goals or totally missed shots at all to put it simply. They did lose very deservedly, yet gave a better fight that I expected as this time Germany are not favourites for the tournament win.

Germany did pass the first pressing line of France rather easily, but then hit the wall of Kante and Pogba, and were vulnerable in the counters, and that is likely to repeated today. Germany are still full of class, but it feels Kroos and Gundogan and Kimmich are better used in full in clubs than in Löw’s approach.

Portugal met Hungary away in front of full 60 000 crowd, and even if the goals came late and flatter a bit they still came, and Portugal created chances from the start. Portugal are the reigning champions, and the player material this time is stronger than last time! Actually a lot stronger, although fullback Cancelo had to replaced by Wolves’ Semedo ahead of the tournament. Defense still is ok, Hungary created about 0.1 xG in the game.

Actually looking at the bench gives the clearest view of Portugal class; Renato Sanches, Andre Silva, Rafa Silva, Joao Felix… I am sure you have heard of them. Cristiano Ronaldo is still there, and whatever your personal views on him are there are not many better players in the box - especially in the air - than him. If any.

Germany would need at least a point here from this so called group of death, but Germany are not what they used to be, and in last World Cup they did not qualify, as a reigning champion!

The betting markets still value Germany a lot and I do not want to talk them down any further, they are Germany, they know how to win, they have world class players.

Yet, Portugal are the better side, along with France and Belgium they are the top-3 in this tournament, and only the home advantage is something that worries me. They have lost twice in last 28 games in all competitions, away to Ukraine and at home to France in an even Nation’s league game, and on the other hand Germany have lost 3 in last 10 games, including an embarrassing home loss to North Macedonia and even more horrible visit to Spain last year, with a 6-0 loss!

Very un-German result.

No major absentees at either side, Portugal not to lose.